ILAN EVYATAR INTERVIEWS ISRAEL'S FORMER AMBASSADOR TO TURKEY, DR. ALON LIEL (1981-1983)

After years of virulent anti-Israeli rhetoric, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been attempting for the past few months to patch up ties with Israel, as regional developments leave his regime isolated and alarm bells sound in Ankara with the Biden administration already taking a tough line on Turkey.

To discuss what’s behind Turkey’s attempted rapprochement with Israel and whether Jerusalem will respond to the overtures from Ankara, I spoke with Dr. Alon Liel, a former Israeli ambassador to the country.

“This has been going on for the past three or four months with the upgrading of Turkey’s representation to Israel, attempts to create talks over [economic] rights in territorial waters, and a very rare direct quote from Erdogan,” says Liel, referring to the Turkish president’s statement in late December that he would like to bring ties with Israel “to a better point.” 

That statement was tempered with a remark that Israel’s “merciless acts” against the Palestinians are “unacceptable”, but on the ground, Erdogan appointed the Hebrew-speaking policy wunderkind Ufuk Ulutas, as his designated ambassador to Tel Aviv, almost two years after the previous envoy was withdrawn.  

Jerusalem however has not reciprocated by upgrading its own representation to ambassadorial level. 

“Israel isn’t overly enthusiastic to say the least,'' notes Liel.

The former foreign ministry director general says Ankara and Jerusalem find themselves looking at each other in a mirror image. Turkey is isolated in the region, with tensions in its relations  with Egypt, Greece and Cyprus, not to mention issues with Europe. Israel on the other hand has compensated very well for the breakdown of relations with Turkey by creating a tripartite alliance with Ankara’s historic rivals Greece and Cyprus, and has improved relations with Egypt - all centered on the crucial issue of energy cooperation, and with strong military cooperation between Israel and Greece and Cyprus. 

While Turkey has weakened, Israel has become much stronger in the region: Its economy grown thanks to its booming hi-tech sector, while Turkey’s economy is plagued by high inflation, a big trade imbalance and a weak currency, and on the military front, Israel strikes with impunity in Syria, and does as it wishes in the region. 

“Turkey is interested but Israel doesn’t see the need,” says Liel. 

Not to mention, he adds, that there is also a lot of anger on the Israeli side with Erdogan, both for his tone over the past decade toward Jerusalem and his cozy relations with Hamas. 

Meanwhile, Israel recently signed the Abraham Accords, acquiring new regional partners - most prominently the United Arab Emirates - and  further isolating Turkey. Ankara has its own tensions with the UAE playing out across the MENA region and Israel will also have to take Abu Dhabi’s feelings into account.

“If Jerusalem were to upgrade relations with Turkey now, that would not be appreciated,” says Liel. 

While the recent reconciliation between the Gulf Cooperation Council and Qatar does give Ankara a “crack to get back in,” says Liel, if it was successful in repairing its ties with the Saudi led bloc, Turkey would “stop its flirtation with Israel.”

Meanwhile another major issue pushing Erdogan’s attempts at rapprochement is his concerns about what policy the Biden administration will adopt toward Turkey given its sensitivity to human rights issues, Turkey’s purchase of S-400 missiles from Russia that led President Donald Trump to kick its NATO ally out of the F-35 stealth fighter-jet  program, and concerns over Turkey’s aggressive posture in the Mediterranean. The thinking in Ankara is that improved ties with Israel can open doors in Washington - doors that Israel is in no hurry to open.

Turkey has also shot itself in the foot on the energy front. After investing tens of billions of dollars in becoming an energy hub leading gas from production sites in the Caspian region to consumption sites in Europe, Turkey had hoped to become a similar conduit for the huge natural gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean, among them Israel’s Leviathan field. 

One of the things that really hit Turkey, says Liel, is the Cairo-based EastMed Gas Forum, which   includes the Palestinians, along with Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt, but has left Ankara out in the cold. 

He adds that while the most economically feasible way of moving Israeli gas to Europe would be to hook up to the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline which began moving Azerbaijani gas to Europe in 2018, that is currently unthinkable for Jerusalem, which won’t allow Turkey to become a player in the EastMed gas market under current circumstances. 

But while Liel sees “little interest” from Jerusalem  in restoring relations , he notes that people to people ties and trade remain strong - in fact Turkey was Israel’s seventh largest export market in 2020 - despite the long period of tension between the countries.  

“Tensions are mostly at the level of top political echelons but not among the public,” says Liel, who by way of an anecdote of the cultural closeness between the two countries notes the huge popularity of Turkish telenovelas in Israel.

In the long run he adds, a rapprochement between Israel and Turkey will probably require a change of leadership. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees himself as having been stung by Erdogan, so the big question from his perspective is who will be running Israel’s foreign policy following the next elections. If it is someone who hasn’t been directly hit by Erdogan, then there could be a greater chance of an improvement in relations. 

Erdogan’s analysis is strikingly similar. 

"The main problem right now is about individuals at the top," the Turkish president said in his December statement. 

Ilan Evyatar is an Israeli journalist. He has served as Editor-in-Chief of the award-winning Jerusalem Report magazine; and News Editor of The Jerusalem Post, where he also wrote a weekly column on politics, economics and international affairs. He is currently working on his first book. Read full bio here.

Alon Liel has served as a chargé d’affaires in Turkey and as Israel’s ambassador to South Africa. Following his role in 1999 as foreign affairs adviser to then-chairman of the Labor party Ehud Barak, Liel became director-general of the Foreign Ministry in 2000.