By DANIELLE ROTH-AVNERI

Once again, Israel’s political system is at a moment of high drama.

Coalition and opposition are locked in conflict over the government’s plan to pass a bill that restricts the reasonableness standard; the coalition bill aims to reduce the Israeli Supreme Court’s ability to overrule government decisions based on the court’s assessment of their reasonableness (or lack thereof).

Ironically, the need to restrict the reasonableness standard has previously been an area of agreement between the coalition and opposition in Israel, and was, until recently, the least controversial aspect of the government’s judicial reform program.

The government is expected to pass its bill on Sunday, July 23, after having frozen a much broader judicial reform program in March. The reform was frozen because of threats by military and Air Force reservists to cease volunteering for service, as well as warnings by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant about the consequences of continuing with the reform.

Since then, the anti-government protest camp in Israel has engaged in a campaign of intimidation and unfounded warnings alleging that the State of Israel will become a dictatorship if the judicial reform passes. 

Large-scale protests have been held every Saturday under the banner that Israeli democracy is at mortal risk. Those viewing these images from abroad could become extremely alarmed, but those who are familiar with the Israeli political system and the forces at play are aware that this is merely an intimidation tactic.

Nevertheless, a significant number of citizens have been persuaded by the intimidation campaign, and signs are now up everywhere, including major roads and highways, warning of dictatorship. The signs state that it is necessary for citizens to resist the fall into dictatorship.

The result has been the emergence of a large anti-government camp, much of which was not previously concerned with politics. This camp has been mobilized and is backed by millions of shekels spent by advertising agencies and other elements with vested interests in the protest movement that is opposed to the Netanyahu government.

On the other side of the divide is an Israeli government that was democratically elected. Those who support it believe that the left-wing controls the country in a de facto manner, regardless of who wins the elections.

As a result, the situation in Israel is reaching boiling point. Days of rage and protests are intensifying, protesters are taking to the streets, and some are breaking the law by blocking traffic or entrances to buildings.

It is becoming impossible on these protest days for people to get to work. Meanwhile, a number of companies, particularly in the hi-tech sector, encourage their staff to go out and protest, and those employees who refrain from doing so face pressure and negative perceptions.

For its part, the government wants to push forward and pass the bill into law. Coalition leaders fear being perceived as fools by their right-wing voter base, and to avoid accusations that the government is controlled by unelected left-wing officials and activists.

The government has decided that this time around, unlike in March, it cannot give in. Doing so would send the message that the government is unable to rule because of protests and refusal to serve by reserve Air Force pilots and reservists from elite units.

Hence, the government can be expected to push forward, and, by providing a tangible achievement for its right-wing voters, put out the message that it is not capitulating. 

The idea that the bill will turn Israel into a dictatorship is laughable, but that doesn’t mean the situation isn’t dangerous.

It’s impossible to predict whether the pilots are merely issuing threats, or will make good on them, or whether we will see additional protests and broader strikes.

The government has already made its choice, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be looking at how things unfold going forward.

The Knesset will, at the end of July, head out for a long summer recess. In August, many Israelis will head for vacation with their families, and the Knesset will not return from recess until mid-October.

Two and a half months is a near eternity in the Israeli timeframe, and many transformative events could occur in that time.

Netanyahu will have until October, at the end of the Jewish High Holidays, to decide whether he will continue with the judicial reform legislation by changing the composition of the judicial selection committee, as he has said he will, or whether to ditch the entire reform program. We will have to wait until October for his decision to become clear.

After a pandemic, multiple elections, armed conflicts, and the forming and breaking of political alliances – not to mention a recent visit by Netanyahu to hospital, sparking questions about his health – it is clear that anything can happen in this country between now and October.

We might not even remember the judicial reform by then, and could instead be busy with brand new and burning issues to argue about. 

Danielle Roth-Avneri is a political commentator & panelist on Morning World and various current affairs news programs on television. She is a former Knesset reporter, news editor and columnist for the newspaper Israel Hayom. Read full bio here.