By Zvika Haimovich
To understand the origins and future direction of the chaotic Middle East, context is critical. Rather than viewing developments as a series of disjointed stories, and as a 'salad' of isolated events, it is necessary to identify the wider trends that shape all of the events in the region.
Those who view the region through a 'genealogical' perspective will cease to be bewildered.
Gaining the needed context for viewing the Middle East requires journeying backwards along the axis of time and zooming out. Doing so reveals the three pillars that prop up the current reality in the region.
The first pillar centers around Syria. While it is common knowledge that the Syrian revolution began in 2011, that it was triggered by the December 2010 'Arab spring,' and that it descended into civil war, the broader story is that Syria evolved from being a local event into a global one.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to send thousands of Russian personnel to Syria, deploy fighter squadrons, and build bases in Syria, he was driven by a desire to bring Russia back to the world stage as a superpower – a status Russia has not enjoyed since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union.
In 2015, he understood that in Syria, Russia could hold influence over Israel, Iran, the U.S. the Kurds, and Turkey. He identified Syria as the gateway to superpower status, and as a way to guard Russian interests.
Today, in many cases, where the U.S. is active in the world, Russia is also there, on the other side of the fence. In Syria, when any party wishes to get something done; whether it is Turkey, the Kurds, Israel, or others, they no longer consult with Washington D.C. as the first port of call, but Moscow. This explains why Russia is not about to leave Syria, and how the Syrian war has become an event with global repercussions.
Russia leads a coalition of strange bed-fellows, that formed in order to salvage the Assad regime. It is made up of Syrian forces, Iran, Hezbollah, and international Shi'ite militia forces. The existence of that coalition points to the second pillar that is shaping the current reality, and that is the division of the Middle East into Sunni and Shi'ite camps.
Iran leads the Shi'ite camp and uses it to gain influence across the Arab world, whether through the activation of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, Shi'ite militias in Iraq, or through its support of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza (which are allied to Iran despite being Sunni organizations).
Iran has ambitions to develop long-range missiles with 5,000-kilometer ranges, and a nuclear weapons program. These ambitions stem from its vision of itself as playing the lead role in the struggle between the Shi'ite and Sunni Middle Eastern camps.
Its primary adversaries in this struggle are the moderate Sunni powers: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and others. This is the context in which the Iranians launched a surprise attack on the Armaco Saudi oil fields in September 2019.
Iran wants to seize control of the Arab world. To reach that objective, they need to first control the Shi'ite world. As a result, Iran arms its proxy in Yemen, which attacks Saudi Arabia, and activates surrogates in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and throughout the Middle East. All of these efforts are part of Iran's struggle against the Sunnis and part of Tehran's hegemonic vision.
A decade ago, Iran took the decision to become the regional hegemon. The development of a nuclear weapon remains an integral part of that plan. A nuclear-armed Iran would be able to deter the Arab-Sunni world, deter Israel, and it could exercise its influence across the Arab world.
The third pillar that needs to be identified in the area is the Israeli – Palestinian conflict. Since 2007 a fundamental shift has been at play though it is routinely overlooked.
The White House's Deal of the Century – a courageous but misguided effort to reach an agreement - is the latest example of an initiative that fails to take this shift into account.
In the summer of 2007, Hamas launched a violent coup and toppled the Palestinian Authority from power in Gaza. Since that time, there has been no single Palestinian voice but rather, two voices. The Palestinian arena is a two-headed entity, and every peace offer that calls on Israel to deal with the Palestinian Authority without addressing the reality of Hamas's rule in Gaza ignores that reality.
The PA in the West Bank and Hamas's regime in Gaza are adversarial, and reject one another's legitimacy. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has neither the ability nor the desire to return to Gaza at this time.
As long as the PA and Hamas remain two diverging entities, the status quo of the conflict will remain in place, with no chance of a solution. Israel will be stuck with rounds of escalations against belligerent, militant Gazan armed factions for the near future, at least.
Only the emergence of a single Palestinian leadership that represents all Palestinians can change that reality. Any solution that falls short of that belongs firmly in the category of ‘conflict management,’ and will ensure that the status quo does not change.
This understanding should lead Israel to the conclusion that it can no longer accept regular, endless rounds of combat with Gaza, which erupt every few months, and which have turned the citizens of southern Israel, who come under rocket fire, into nothing short of a punching bag.
It means that Israel should, when the time is right, launch a significant military operation – not to conquer Gaza and control two million Gazans – but to topple Hamas, and help create the conditions for the PA to regain control. This would fundamentally change the reality of the Palestinian arena, and move the sides towards a solution, rather mere management of the conflict.
The complex reality of the Middle East consists of many puzzle pieces. It is vital to know how to place each piece in its correct place. Describing each Middle Eastern story in isolation will not lead to an understanding of what one is seeing. A genealogical analysis, on the other hand, lifts the veil and uncovers the true driving forces in the region.
Zvika Haimovich served as Commander of the Israel Air Defense Forces from 2015-2018. He was Active Defense Wing Commander during Operation Pillar of Defense (2012) and Operation Protective Edge (2014)