By Grant Newman
While Israel has not played a substantial role in the 2020 presidential election thus far, it will likely play a significant role in the 2024 presidential election due to the future candidacy of Ambassador Nikki Haley.
ISRAEL - THUS FAR ON THE PERIPHERY
Democratic candidates have not discussed Israel in any material way in the 2020 presidential campaign to-date. Even after President Trump revealed his Middle East Peace Plan, Israel never emerged as a topic of debate on the campaign trail. On the contrary, this campaign season appears to be dedicated solely to domestic issues. For example, on February 3rd, as rank-and-file Iowa Democrats caucused for presidential candidates, many discussed their preferred candidate’s position on healthcare, student debt, and wages. Notably absent from the discussion, however, was any mention of foreign policy, Israel, or President Trump's Middle East Peace Plan. Similarly, no candidate mentioned Israel during the Democratic debate held prior to the New Hampshire primary on February 7th. Instead, more time was spent debating whether arrests for drug-related offenses increased or decreased during one candidate’s tenure as mayor in South Bend, Indiana – America’s 301st largest town. Simply put, Israel is not just taking a backseat to domestic issues; it is not even on the campaign bus.
This is not to say that Democratic candidates do not have opinions on Israel, but rather that Israel is of little importance in the 2020 race. Perhaps this is true because the current Democratic candidates all broadly align in their criticism of Israeli settlements in Judea and Samaria and in their support of the right of return for Palestinians. Accordingly, Democratic candidates are focusing campaign resources on issues where they can differentiate themselves from one another. Indeed, the main question facing Democrats at the moment is not why President Trump should be defeated, but how, and Israel does not contribute to answering that question.
HALEY MUST CAMPAIGN ON HER PRO-ISRAEL RECORD AT THE UN
While it is debatable whether Ambassador Haley is the current Republican frontrunner for the 2024 presidential election, we will declare that question out of scope for the purposes of this article and move forward with our baseline assumption.
In her 2024 presidential campaign, Ambassador Haley must run on her service as U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., and therein her record as a staunch supporter of Israel, for at least three reasons. First, her ambassadorship served as her political introduction to the nation and world. While, Ambassador Haley had served as Governor of South Carolina, she was little known beyond local politics and conservative circles prior to her appointment as Ambassador to the United Nations. Second, her ambassadorship will serve as her primary source of foreign-policy experience and she will likely use this experience to paint the picture of a competent diplomat that courageously stood up for American interests and for Israel’s right to protect its citizens from terrorism – even against the anti-Israel majority of U.N. member states. Finally, Haley’s ambassadorship is her primary connection to President Trump. To the extent that Republican voters will look for a candidate that will continue Trump’s legacy, Ambassador Haley will need to highlight her time as his U.N. Ambassador to establish her own pro-Trump bonafides.
DEMS WILL BE FORCED TO ADDRESS HALEY'S PRO-ISRAEL RECORD, MAKING ISRAEL A KEY ISSUE FOR 2024
Assuming Ambassador Haley must reference and leverage her experience as President Trump’s U.N. Ambassador on the 2024 campaign trail, it is fair to assume that her Democratic political adversaries will make Israel a key issue to discredit her. First, Democrats will claim Ambassador Haley cannot be trusted, painting her as a bad ambassador. To justify this claim, they will reference her policy decisions. Specifically, they will argue Halley’s policies were poor for being too favorable to Israel, supposedly in violation of human rights, and only serving to isolate the U.S. from the rest of the world.
Having made a connection between Ambassador Haley’s alleged incompetence and her pro-Israel position, Democrats will have the foundation to build a structure of anti-Israeli talking points. By doing so, they will attempt to both weaken Ambassador Haley’s candidacy and propose an alternative, anti-Israel position.
In summary, with Ambassador Haley highlighting her pro-Israel record on the one hand, and Democrats deconstructing her record and proposing an alternative direction for American-Israeli relations on the other, it is likely Israel will play a more significant role in the 2024 presidential campaign.