By Yaakov Peri
Iran has now named Ershad Karimi as the perpetrator of the blast at the Natanz nuclear facility, but the ongoing series of blasts, fires and power failures taking place throughout Iran, including in Tehran, in other locations of strategic significance at the advanced centrifuge development site in Natanz, and the nature of the operations have the hallmarks of a state entity, with highly advanced attack capabilities. The responsible entity certainy has leading capabilities in the realm of cyber, and possibly, in the context of the reported explosions, is the beneficiary of personnel placement inside Iran.
While it is possible to generate explosions through cyber capabilities, when blasts are involved, operational teams on the ground are a more likely source of attack.
While the Iran's regime continues to investigate who is responsible, its relative silence is indicative of it's helplessness. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, who was expected by some to threaten Israel as a result of the blasts, made no mention of them during a recent speech. He made no mention of them and focused his message upon issues such as the 'agricultural jihad' in Lebanon, a country which is suffering from a severe economic and political crisis. Iran's and its proxies are cultivating a sphere of deniability.
Silence cannot hide the fact that the Iranian regime has failed to protect its most strategically important assets. Naturally, its suspicion will be trained on Israel, and though this could be the latest phase in Israel's shadow war with Iran, other possible operatives cannot be ruled out; including the United States and Arab adversaries of the Islamic Republic such as Saudi Arabia and, very importantly, elements of Iranian opposition must also be considered.
The continuing nature of the incidents, and the fact that they include power blackouts is significant. More extensive than a temporary power outage, the blackouts are disruptive to city infrastructure, and are potentially harmful to the Iranian nuclear program.
The entity responsible for these incidents has also timed them to ensure the maximum effect upon, and bring maximum strain to, an Iranian regime already battling a confluence of challenges. Biting U.S. sanctions and falling oil prices have worsened Iran's economic crisis. The coronavirus pandemic has taken a heavy toll on Iran, though the extent of that toll is being concealed by its government, and a crisis of confidence in their leadership is emerging among the Iranian people.
These mysterious attacks appear to have damaged Iran's ability to produce advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges and have likely caused significant setbacks to the country's nuclear capabilities.
The repeated, continuing attacks on Iran's electrical infrastructure also indicates that whoever is behind the incidents now possesses the ability to launch attacks of this type as and when they wish to.
The image of Iranian regime, having been caught off guard, has weakened at home and the attacks have buoyed the morale of the Iranian opposition that no longer feels alone and isolated.
And yet, despite all of these setbacks Iran isn't going anywhere as a Shi'ite revolutionary regime.
It will seek to expose the attackers, and it will choose how it responds from a menu of revenge options, including kinetic strikes to cyber attacks, such as those that struck the Israeli water treatment plant.
Whichever option Iran selects, its response will be calculated to fall short of the threshold of war. Iran has no interest in launching a war against Israel or the U.S. and while its nuclear program has been damaged, the regime will seek to repair that damage, learn relevant lessons and continue its long term conflict with Israel. Despite their efforts to downplay the attacks, Iran will be compelled to respond, if only to salvage the image of the regime.
As we await Iran's next move, the regime of the Ayatollah's is looking considerably more vulnerable than it would like the Iranian people to know.
Mr. Yaakov Peri concluded his distinguished career as Director of the Shin Bet (Israel Security Service). He served in that position from 1988-1995. Prior to that role he held the position of Head of the Shin Bet Northern Command and the Judea & Samaria Command. In 2013 he joined the Yesh Atid party, was elected to the Knesset and was appointed Minister of Science, Technology and Space.