By Yaakov Lappin
Israelis are reeling from the deadliest terrorist attack experienced by the country since 2011. Armed with a handgun, an East Jerusalem resident opened fire indiscriminately on civilians he randomly encountered outside a synagogue in Jerusalem's Neve Yaakov neighborhood on Friday night (January 27).
Seven innocent civilians were murdered in cold blood, before the terrorist was shot dead by police. A day later, on January 28, a startlingly young terrorist, only 13-years-old, also from East Jerusalem, opened fire on a group of people in the City of David (Silwan) neighborhood, injuring a father and son. The son, an IDF Paratrooper officer on leave, returned fire, injuring the young assailant, despite having sustained severe injuries himself.
These developments occurred days after a large-scale gun battle that erupted in Jenin on Thursday (January 26), in which an Israeli security operation stopped a Palestinian Islamic Jihad cell from carrying out a planned, imminent terror assault on Israeli targets, according to the Israeli military.
Nine Palestinians were killed in a fierce exchange of fire with Israeli forces in broad daylight. Eight of the dead were gunmen, according to Israeli security sources, The daylight timing of the operation is an indication of its urgent necessity, said the IDF, as usually such operations are scheduled for nighttime.
These events have pushed the security situation to the top of the national agenda once again. There is no avoiding the fact that Palestinian society mainstreams and glorifies indiscriminate murder of Israeli civilians, as seen in the widespread celebrations that followed the Jerusalem attack.
When it comes to dealing with unorganized terrorism, the initial government response, as laid out in a series of cabinet actions, appears be a continuation of the previous security policy pursued by the Bennett – Lapid government.
The dilemma of how far to go in the use of force against terrorism is one that every Israeli cabinet faces, no matter which government is in charge. While an iron fist is necessary against terrorists and those who dispatch them, the defense establishment often advises the government to pursue a balancing act, and, where possible, to avoid taking steps that could further inflame the situation. This balancing act includes a recognition of the Israeli interest in avoiding a collapse of the Palestinian Authority and of avoiding harm to the fabric of life among Palestinians who are not involved in terrorism.
Meanwhile, Hamas maintains its usual double game, inciting terrorism through its official channels and social media presence and promoting atrocities against Israeli in Jerusalem and the West Bank, while maintaining the truce and advancing an economic improvement plan in Gaza. How long will Israel allow Hamas to play this double game? This is one of the questions that the new government will have to answer.
Intriguing developments in Iran
On Saturday night, reports began arriving from Iran regarding a suicide drone strike on a weapons production center in the Iranian city of Isfahan. There were contrasting accounts of who was responsible. According to the Saudi Al-Hadath newspaper, the United States and a second, undisclosed country – not Israel according to the Saudi account – hit a ballistic missile storage center in the strike. In contrast, The Wall Street Journal claimed Israel was behind the attack, and the picture remains far from clear.
The WSJ carries the more credible account, but it is also possible to believe that the U.S. supported or even assisted in the strike.
There has been an increase in attacks by the Iranian-led axis against American military posts in Syria. Suicide UAV and rocket attacks targeted American bases in Syria in January. In addition, given Iran's major role in becoming Russia's primary long-range weapon supplier in Moscow’s war on Ukraine, the U.S. has good reason to want to see Iran’s weapons production and storage centers disrupted.
Iran's choice to equip Russia with suicide UAVs, and, potentially, ballistic missiles in the near future, has internationalized and created linkages between combat zones in Europe and the Middle East. This development generates new risks, but also creates opportunities.
Iran is expanding its weapons supply network far beyond the borders of the Middle East, a disturbing development. Yet Israel could, as a result, find it easier to recruit new powerful partners in the campaign to interfere with and disrupt Iran’s destabilizing weapons production and smuggling network.
The long-term struggle over Israel’s character rages
Despite the security agenda's dominance in recent days, tens of thousands of Israelis demonstrated against the government’s plans for far-reaching judicial reform on Saturday evening in Tel Aviv and other cities. While the turnout was lower than rallies last week, the fact that tens of thousands attended (and observed a minute of silence in honor of the victims of terrorism) shows that the Israeli opposition movement is firm in its resolve to continue protest activities - despite the security escalation.
According to police estimates, some 40,000 people arrived in Tel Aviv for the demonstration there, down from 100,000 who attended in the previous week. Around 13,000 demonstrators participated in a parallel rally in Haifa. These protests reflect fact that the long-term domestic struggle over the nature and character of the Jewish state, as well as the bitter dispute over the balance of power between the executive, the judiciary, and the legislature, will remain in place for years to come. A fundamental question is whether the two major camps in Israeli society - the pro and anti-Netanyahu camps - will reach any kind of compromise on these deeply conflicting visions of Israel’s future.
Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.