By Justin Pozmanter
Now that the Biden administration has opened negotiations with Iran, we can expect familiar voices to claim that Israel, and the American pro-Israel community, oppose diplomacy and any agreement related to the Iranian nuclear program. To quote President Biden, that is a bunch of malarkey.
Israel is generally target number one for Iranian aggression. That being the case, who would benefit more from an agreement that actually prevented Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability? It would be foolish, if not downright suicidal, for Israel to oppose such a deal.
This is also not a case of the perfect being the enemy of the good. As a near total capitulation to Iranian ambitions, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is only a good deal if the target audience is Iran, Hezbollah and Bashar Assad.
When the JCPOA was finalized, there were those who claimed opposition was for partisan political reasons or because of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s poor relationship with President Obama. While it is true that Netanyahu and Obama had a famously rocky relationship, it is not the reason Israel opposed the JCPOA.
Israel opposed the JCPOA because it was at odds with Israeli interests and put Israeli lives in mortal peril now and in the future. While another Prime Minister may have handled their opposition differently, anyone who could plausibly be elected Prime Minister of Israel would have actively opposed the JCPOA, no matter who was serving as President of the United States.
A good deal that would justify removing sanctions on Iran would contain, at minimum, the following elements:
1. It would verifiably remove every pathway to an Iranian nuclear weapons capability. It must include anytime, anywhere snap inspections. The Iranian regime has not earned the slightest benefit of the doubt. They have repeatedly lied and hidden nuclear materials, information and even entire uranium enrichment sites. If any place in Iran is off limit to inspectors, the inspections regime is insufficient, and the deal is not verifiable.
2. It would address Iran’s development of ballistic missiles. Iran has the right to defensive capabilities, and even reasonable offensive capabilities, but if they are not seeking a nuclear weapon, they have no use for large long range missiles and certainly no need for Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). These types of weapons are only meant to carry a nuclear (or potentially other nonconventional) warhead.
3. Iran’s malign behavior in the region must be addressed. It is illogical to again provide sanctions relief when we know it will be used to fund and arm terror proxies and destabilize multiple countries across the region. Iran funds and arms Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, countless militias in Iraq and helped Bashar Assad slaughter half a million people. After the JCPOA, it was promised that being “welcomed back into the family of nations” would moderate Iranian behavior and they would focus on improving the lives of their own citizens. The opposite occurred. Iran, committed as ever to its revolutionary ideology, used the increased revenues to boost payments to regional proxies and has repeatedly and violently crushed attempts by its people to gain greater freedom.
4. The restrictions must be permanent, or at the very least only eased based on improved Iranian behavior rather than an automatic sunset date. By ending restrictions automatically, the JCPOA allows Iran to reap the financial benefits of the deal permanently, while being patient and continuing nuclear research, before moving forward with their previous nuclear weapons designs from a much stronger and more advanced position. A good deal would not prevent Iran from developing one rudimentary bomb today, only to make it easier for them to build dozens of advanced nuclear weapons in a few years. A good deal would prevent them from ever becoming a nuclear weapons state.
Recent comments by the United States Special Envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, do not provide much room for optimism that the United States plans a tougher stand designed to reach a good deal with Iran.
If the JCPOA is revived, or another weak deal is reached that again enriches Iran while doing nothing to prevent it from using its greater financial strength to continue its most malign behaviors, Israel, as well as most of the rest of the region, will be opposed. If nothing else, when those most endangered by Iran vehemently oppose a deal as a fundamental threat to their national security, the rest of the world should listen.
However, if the P5+1 (the permanent members of the UN Security Council + Germany) come to a deal that truly and verifiably prevents a nuclear Iran, prohibits Iran from developing the means to deliver nuclear weapons and reigns in Tehran’s support for terror support, they would find Israel, and pro-Israel Americans, the most enthusiastic supporters in the world.
Justin Pozmanter is a former foreign policy advisor to Minister Tzachi Hanegbi. Before making Aliyah, he worked at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and practiced law. Read full bio here.