By Tomer Barak

The Temple Mount (known in Arabic as the Haram al-Sharif) is not only one of the holiest places on the planet for Jews and Muslims but is also the focal point of the Israeli-Arab conflict.

Like clockwork, the holy site becomes ‘the hottest show in town’ on several `trigger dates` that amplify day-to-day tensions surrounding the routine management of the Mount. The most sensitive dates are religious ones such as the month of Ramadan and the three Jewish pilgrimage holidays, as well as secular national dates like Israeli Independence Day (The Palestinians mark the “Nakba,” or the “catastrophe”, the day after Israel marks Independence Day) and Jerusalem Day.

On those occasions, local clashes regularly erupt between worshippers and law enforcement personnel. This is accompanied by an oft-repeated Palestinian narrative, according to which, there is a ‘Jewish Zionist attack’ on the Al Aqsa Mosque, and it is time to mobilize to ‘save it’ from Zionist attempts to ‘change the status quo.’

Jordan’s traditional role regarding Jerusalem and the Temple Mount is important. Jordan remains in possession of a key role at the site, a role accepted by Israel in the peace agreement with the Hashemite Kingdom (1994) and later by establishing the Jordanian Islamic trust, the Waqf, which has official control over the sensitive site.

Over the years, Jordan has capitalized on its ability to control and calm tensions, sometimes intervening only at the last moment, before disaster strikes to show the stature of King Abdullah in the region.

A couple of months ago, it became clear to all regional observers that the Ramadan month will form an especially hot flashpoint, and multiple parties, particularly the Jordanian leadership, made an effort to prevent a security deterioration. The Jordanian need for calm derived from the King`s attention to his internal arena -- the economy and relations within the royal family. Moreover, the King had no wish to see a return to last year’s efforts by Hamas to link Gaza and Jerusalem - pushing Jordan out of the equation in the Holy City.  

Nevertheless, the King`s efforts to coordinate between Israel and the Palestinians failed due to inflammatory acts from both sides.

At that point, Jordan changed its behavior and became increasingly confrontational toward Israel. The rationale behind this posture was to take advantage of the situation – bolstering the Kingdom`s status in Jerusalem vis-a-vis regional competition (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Hamas), and amplifying the King`s regional role in the eyes of the Biden administration.

The Jordanian rhetoric was very harsh, blaming Israel for initiating escalation in Jerusalem, and “denying” Muslims freedom of worship, as well as allowing Jews to pray on the Temple Mount under police supervision. Meanwhile, Jordan initiated several regional and international diplomatic meetings, utilizing them to attack Israeli policy.

Jordan’s rhetoric came to a peak on April 18, when Prime Minister, Bisher al-Khasawneh, went further than any Jordanian official had done until then, stating, “I salute every Palestinian, and all the employees of the Jordanian Islamic Waqf, who proudly stand like minarets, hurling their stones in a volley of clay at the Zionist sympathizers defiling the Al-Aqsa Mosque under the protection of the Israeli occupation government.”

This was active encouragement of violence -- an unprecedented message from Amman.

But it wasn’t all bad news. In order to maintain the ability to de-escalate, Jordan did not sever its diplomatic ties with Israel, and the fact that such messages were not repeated is an indication that Jordan sought to walk them back behind the scenes.

Moreover, King Abdullah intervened and pressed the need for calm during a meeting with United States President Joe Biden on April 25 in which he reaffirmed Jordan’s regional importance and its role in Jerusalem. According to several outlets, Jordan pressed the need to formulate new security arrangements on the Mount that would remove certain powers from Israeli security forces and transfer them to the Waqf.  

As for the Israeli response, Jordan has, for several years, assessed that Israel can contain many of its anti-Israeli sentiments and moves. This assessment was proven right again when Israel decided to respond harshly to the Jordanian rhetoric only through official channels, due to an Israeli wish to get through the high-tension period and past Jerusalem Day without a major eruption, and based on the assumption that relations with Jordan will normalize again.

In trying to assess the Jordanian game plan, it is clear that the inflammatory rhetoric and escalatory actions, especially by the prime minister, were a sign of distress – but they were not accidental.

Jordan lives under a continuous sense of a threat to the Kingdom`s special role in Jerusalem and the image of the king as the custodian of the holy places. It perceives that erosion of this role will lead to a real threat to the Hashemite system as a whole.

Firstly, from the Jordanian perspective, Israel’s decision to increase the number of visitors to the Temple Mount and grant police new powers of enforcement there is perceived as an encroachment on the status quo. The reality is that there is a large increase in the flow of non-Muslim visitors to the Mount, with record-high numbers of more than 30,000 visitors since the beginning of the year.

At the same time, attempts by Hamas to ‘take ownership’ of the Mosque very much disturb the Hashemite Kingdom.

In Jordan’s net assessment, the Kingdom has, over the years, been able to successfully maneuver by fending off challenges to this status from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Northern Branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel. However, the recent rapprochement of Israel with both Saudi Arabia due to the Abraham Accords, and Turkey, are alarming from the Jordanian perspective - even though neither of those countries is looking, especially publicly, to replace the Jordanian role in Jerusalem. Both countries state publicly that there is a need to preserve the status quo, and Jordan's role, in Jerusalem. 

In that regard, when the latest escalation erupted, although Jordan did not want the escalation to happen after it had already broken out it sought to leverage the violent incidents to improve its weak position.  

Israel has a clear interest in safeguarding its peace treaty with Jordan, which is a strategic asset. A stable and prosperous Jordan is an explicit Israeli interest.

At the same time, since the Palestinian conflict is not going to vanish, and the Temple Mount will likely produce further outbreaks, Israel and Jordan should continue to work together to control stability in Jerusalem, especially on the Mount.

Israel did well in restraining its public responses to provocative Jordanian statements while making clear its dissatisfaction.

Israel and Jordan, alongside their neighbors, can have a better future. The Abraham Accords have already enabled a trilateral agreement with the UAE (with the U.S, as a facilitator) on water and electricity swaps between the countries.

But to press on and move forward, it is critical to work on trust.  A mature discussion is needed to tackle differences. This would send an important message to the Jordanian public about the need to work with Israel, while also calming Israeli public opinion, which has grown increasingly flustered by Jordan’s hostile public posture.

Lieutenant Colonel Tomer Barak concluded his military career in 2021 after 21 years of service in the Israeli Military Intelligence and in the Strategic Planning Division. Read full bio here.