By Danielle Roth-Avneri

Israel’s governing coalition has reached the significant milestone of 100 days in power. The fact that it has remained intact is very much thanks to the shadow cast by Benjamin Netanyahu, the former prime minister, and now leader of the opposition, whose presence acts as the number one stabilizing force keeping the coalition together. The fear that Netanyahu could return and take power is enough to keep the disparate coalition from falling apart.

The effects of Netanyahu’s potential return were also apparent during Bennett’s speech to the United Nations General Assembly on October 27, when Israelis  watching the speech had one key question in mind: How did it compare to Netanyahu’s speeches in the same forum?

Bennett struggled to live up to Netanyahu’s standard, and his political rivals and Netanyahu’s circle in the Likud fanned the flames by playing up images of an empty UN building during the prime minister’s speech, along with statements mocking Bennett for being premier despite heading a party with only six Knesset seats – a critical mantra that has yet to vanish after more than 100 days in office. In the meantime, Bennett placed himself in direct conflict with the Health Ministry, by arguing that national leaders take the full picture into consideration beyond those raised by health officials.

It is customary to give a new government a 100-day honeymoon period and that is exactly what this coalition got. With a largely friendly media in place, the sense is that most criticism levelled at the government has been gentle.  

This phenomenon has had two important side effects. The first is that decisions on how to manage the fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic have been less than optimal. The second is that government decisions that would otherwise have attracted firestorms of controversy from within the coalition have seen the factions quietly work together instead.

There is no sign of the loud media feuding over government decisions – a sight that was so common in the last coalition.

The ‘radio silence’ can mostly be attributed to the fear of a Netanyahu comeback.

As a political affairs journalist, it is rare to hear so few MKs briefing the media against one another.

Another factor behind this cooperative spirit is the fact that several ministers and deputy ministers – politicians who have never before had portfolios in the past – are now realizing their dreams.

Meanwhile, the coalition’s member factions continue to either ignore or disregard multiple election promises they made throughout the four recent election campaigns. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett promised not to sit with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, or with the United Arab List party – both key members of the current coalition.

Bennett’s critics in the Israeli public, on the other hand, have not forgotten these promises, and are far from reaching the stage where they have put their outrage behind them.

For Lapid, disappearing ‘behind the scenes’ into the work of the Foreign Ministry has been a convenient maneuver, as the country grapples with the Delta wave of the coronavirus, and the number of deaths remains high.   

Lapid has additional reasons to keep a low profile. As chairman of the Yesh Atid party, while in opposition he pledged to form a government no larger than 18 members. That was before he became  Foreign Minister in a government that has 28 ministers, and a number of deputy ministers.

This government has also not been shy about activating the Norwegian Law, which allows MKs to resign, become ministers, and automatically enlarge the government by bringing the next MKs on the party list into the coalition in their place. These moves, combined with the appearance of deputy ministers, cost the taxpayer  tens of millions of shekels.

Yet criticism of all of this has been muted, with the exception of some rumblings in the opposition ranks.

Thus, the coalition has reached absurd situations, such as the appointment of Yisrael Beitenu’s Eli Avidar as Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office – a role that no one seems to know much about.

Meanwhile, right-wing coalition members are embarrassed by the government’s agenda, but are keeping quiet about it. The long called for demolition of the Khan al-Ahmar Beduin settlement –  between Jerusalem and the Dead Sea  –  is off the agenda, and Defense Minister Benny Gantz is warming relations with the Palestinian Authority. These moves are being ‘contained’ by the government’s right-wing ministers.

The left-wingers in the government are also unhappy about the government’s approval of outposts in Judea and Samaria and settlement construction, but they too have learned to censor themselves.

The United Arab List has learned how to vanish during security escalations.

And yet, the government deserves credit for delivering on one of its core promises: Quiet for the Israeli people. This goal has been achieved.

Should the government succeed in passing the bi-annual state budget, this would likely guarantee stability for two years. After passing that milestone, a breaking apart of the coalition becomes highly unlikely.

Prior to the second and third budget votes, we are likely to witness ultimatums, as various coalition elements try to pull budgetary resources in their direction. But in all likelihood, the arguments will be resolved in the last minute through compromise.

Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman promised a raise in the wages of conscripted soldiers prior to the elections. He found a way to throw this pledge aside, after available funds all went to other causes.

Liberman did not cheerlead Benny Gantz’s move to pass an increase in the pension for career IDF officers, who often retire at the age of 45. But he nevertheless went along with it. This is a sign of the ‘spirit of compromise’ that can allow a budget to be passed by this coalition.

When Netanyahu was on an extended holiday in Hawaii, one of the jokes circulating among government officials expressed the hope that he’d fall in love with the place and stay there.

In reality, of course, Netanyahu came back, and his Likud party is preparing to continue disrupting Knesset discussions with protest shouts.

That won’t be enough to bring down this coalition. Only two things can do that: Failure to pass the budget, or Netanyahu leaving politics.

If Netanyahu stops leading the Likud, the main roadblock for Likud joining the government would be lifted. The Centrist parties could find new motivation to join the Likud – motivation that will never appear in any way so long as Netanyahu heads that party.

It is this personal boycott of Netanyahu that led the current government into existence, and so long as Netanyahu remains leader of the opposition, the fear that he may return will keep the coalition together.

Danielle Roth-Avneri is a journalist and reporter on political matters, as well as an editor for the Israel Hayom/Israel Todaynewspaper, the most widely circulated publication in Israel. Read full bio here.