It’s time to put out Israel’s political fires

By DANIELLE ROTH-AVNERI

At a conservative estimate, around two-and-a-half months should suffice to douse the political flames engulfing Israel, which have left not a single person in Israeli society unaffected, be they on the Right or Left.    

What we have witnessed over the past few months is a quiet civil war, one that is being fought not with arrows or physical blows, but rather on social media networks and within groups of friends and families.

Meanwhile, the Knesset has just begun a two-and-a-half-month-long recess, during which time, anything can happen in Israel’s political reality. August is a time for families to go on vacation, with kids off school. In September, the High Holy Days continue the vacation mode, with an added spiritual, national, and cognitive effect created by the powerful holiday of Yom Kippur.

The Knesset will reconvene in mid-October, and by then we will know whether the recess allowed enough time for heads to cool in the aftermath of the passing of the coalition's amendment to the Basic Law: The Judiciary, also known as the reasonableness standard bill, restricting the power of the Supreme Court to use the reasonableness doctrine to review government decisions.  

Currently, the country is still at boiling point, and the gulf that separates the two sides is vast. One side believes that a very minor law was passed and that it had to be passed to demonstrate to conservative voters that the Right has not capitulated on issues pertaining to judicial reform and that the Left does not run the government.

On the other hand, for this law to pass, there needed to be a complete consensus among all members of the government because of the opposition to it within the military. The uprising within the ranks, which included threats by reservist pilots and elite reserve combat unit members not to show up for service, ended up being the driving force behind the passage of this law.

This is something the government could not have given in to: The refusal card puts the safety of the State of Israel in jeopardy. When it comes to military no-shows, the government correctly felt that if it gave in, the no-show card would be pulled out of the deck in other scenarios in the future.

Two camps have formed within the coalition. One faction within the Likud and other coalition parties believes the legislative process should be carried out in its entirety right now. This group is led by Justice Minister Yariv Levin and his confidants. After getting the law passed, some members of this hawkish and ultra-rightist group took a selfie in the Knesset that was highly insensitive; there was no need for them to rub salt in the opposition’s wound. After winning, they ought to have shown some modesty.

A second group within the Likud believes that now is the time to calm the situation before making any further moves. This group believes that it is necessary to arrive at a broad consensus on the future of judicial reform, most critically on the composition of the Judicial Selection Committee. Deciding the future of this committee, which appoints justices to the Supreme Court, is the next major milestone of the judicial reform drama. It is already clear that at this stage in the proceedings whatever happens on this count, the proposal will fall short of the coalition’s original plans.

Meanwhile, the demonstrations on Israeli streets warning of dictatorship spread all manner of libel against Israel. The claims of a dictatorship are simply baseless. Former senior politicians promoted this narrative within the protest movement, but anyone familiar with politics, strategy, and political campaigns is aware that the objective of the protest movement is to remove Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from office.

The protest campaigns began a long time before judicial reform did. Notably, politicians from the opposition are being completely excluded from the movement. This means that the movement itself is a political development in the making, which could result in the formation of a new party.

All in all, the heads of the protest movement are exploiting circumstances to promote their agenda, and many of them have fallen in love with protests for protest’s sake.

Despite their rhetoric, Israel will not transition into a dictatorship. The amendment to the reasonableness standard does not spell the end of democracy.

The State of Israel is not a perfect country, and many things need to be fixed. It is not sustainable to have a situation in which the government will conclude that it is powerless to make changes. On the other hand, with all due respect to Justice Minister Levin, the government needs to realize that there are more pressing things for it to deal with right now.  

We have an education system that is slowly disintegrating, a health system that requires an emergency transfusion, and security challenges on all fronts.

It is time to end the control over the political situation by extreme elements on the Right as well as the Left. This means moderating future government steps and ending anarchy on the streets, where, during a protest, a mother was attacked in her vehicle while children were inside, or where a driver drove into protesters.

How did we stoop to this new low? Many of Israel’s adversaries are clasping their hands with excitement at these scenes.

Regardless, in the end, it is Netanyahu who will decide what the next move is. He is watching the polls carefully and sees that his situation has deteriorated very significantly since the judicial reform began. Given the damage done so far, it is fair to assume that his motivation to continue with judicial reform is extremely low.  

Netanyahu will continue his wait-and-see approach before deciding what to do vis-à-vis the Judicial Selection Committee. He will wait to see what new developments surface before taking his next step.

In late July, Netanyahu was taken to hospital by ambulance. He claimed to be suffering from dehydration. When the most qualified cardiologists in the State of Israel were rushed to his side, everybody understood that there had been some kind of cardiac event, and he later received a pacemaker. The flames burning in Israel affect the entire country, including the heart of the prime minister.

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Danielle Roth-Avneri is a political commentator & panelist on Morning World and various current affairs news programs on television. She is a former Knesset reporter, news editor and columnist for the newspaper Israel Hayom. Read full bio here.

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The Future Of Judicial Reform.

By DANIELLE ROTH-AVNERI

Once again, Israel’s political system is at a moment of high drama.

Coalition and opposition are locked in conflict over the government’s plan to pass a bill that restricts the reasonableness standard; the coalition bill aims to reduce the Israeli Supreme Court’s ability to overrule government decisions based on the court’s assessment of their reasonableness (or lack thereof).

Ironically, the need to restrict the reasonableness standard has previously been an area of agreement between the coalition and opposition in Israel, and was, until recently, the least controversial aspect of the government’s judicial reform program.

The government is expected to pass its bill on Sunday, July 23, after having frozen a much broader judicial reform program in March. The reform was frozen because of threats by military and Air Force reservists to cease volunteering for service, as well as warnings by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant about the consequences of continuing with the reform.

Since then, the anti-government protest camp in Israel has engaged in a campaign of intimidation and unfounded warnings alleging that the State of Israel will become a dictatorship if the judicial reform passes. 

Large-scale protests have been held every Saturday under the banner that Israeli democracy is at mortal risk. Those viewing these images from abroad could become extremely alarmed, but those who are familiar with the Israeli political system and the forces at play are aware that this is merely an intimidation tactic.

Nevertheless, a significant number of citizens have been persuaded by the intimidation campaign, and signs are now up everywhere, including major roads and highways, warning of dictatorship. The signs state that it is necessary for citizens to resist the fall into dictatorship.

The result has been the emergence of a large anti-government camp, much of which was not previously concerned with politics. This camp has been mobilized and is backed by millions of shekels spent by advertising agencies and other elements with vested interests in the protest movement that is opposed to the Netanyahu government.

On the other side of the divide is an Israeli government that was democratically elected. Those who support it believe that the left-wing controls the country in a de facto manner, regardless of who wins the elections.

As a result, the situation in Israel is reaching boiling point. Days of rage and protests are intensifying, protesters are taking to the streets, and some are breaking the law by blocking traffic or entrances to buildings.

It is becoming impossible on these protest days for people to get to work. Meanwhile, a number of companies, particularly in the hi-tech sector, encourage their staff to go out and protest, and those employees who refrain from doing so face pressure and negative perceptions.

For its part, the government wants to push forward and pass the bill into law. Coalition leaders fear being perceived as fools by their right-wing voter base, and to avoid accusations that the government is controlled by unelected left-wing officials and activists.

The government has decided that this time around, unlike in March, it cannot give in. Doing so would send the message that the government is unable to rule because of protests and refusal to serve by reserve Air Force pilots and reservists from elite units.

Hence, the government can be expected to push forward, and, by providing a tangible achievement for its right-wing voters, put out the message that it is not capitulating. 

The idea that the bill will turn Israel into a dictatorship is laughable, but that doesn’t mean the situation isn’t dangerous.

It’s impossible to predict whether the pilots are merely issuing threats, or will make good on them, or whether we will see additional protests and broader strikes.

The government has already made its choice, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be looking at how things unfold going forward.

The Knesset will, at the end of July, head out for a long summer recess. In August, many Israelis will head for vacation with their families, and the Knesset will not return from recess until mid-October.

Two and a half months is a near eternity in the Israeli timeframe, and many transformative events could occur in that time.

Netanyahu will have until October, at the end of the Jewish High Holidays, to decide whether he will continue with the judicial reform legislation by changing the composition of the judicial selection committee, as he has said he will, or whether to ditch the entire reform program. We will have to wait until October for his decision to become clear.

After a pandemic, multiple elections, armed conflicts, and the forming and breaking of political alliances – not to mention a recent visit by Netanyahu to hospital, sparking questions about his health – it is clear that anything can happen in this country between now and October.

We might not even remember the judicial reform by then, and could instead be busy with brand new and burning issues to argue about. 

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Danielle Roth-Avneri is a political commentator & panelist on Morning World and various current affairs news programs on television. She is a former Knesset reporter, news editor and columnist for the newspaper Israel Hayom. Read full bio here.

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A quiet civil war

By Danielle Roth-Avneri

The first hundred days of the Benjamin Netanyahu government have seen Israel experience massive turmoil.

While a common Israeli saying holds that those who take office have one hundred days of grace. But this government has not been granted a single day of grace from those who oppose it. On the other hand, the government itself did not wait long before Justice Minister Yariv Levin launched his legal form program.

And that is when the snowball started to roll. It quickly picked up speed, growing larger, heavier, and eventually, unstoppable. In politics, even those with access to the best strategic advisers can experience moments in which they simply lose control.

The Netanyahu government lost control very quickly because the legal reform sparked massive resistance. Behind it was all the power, energy, and financial resources of its rival camp —the ‘just not Bibi camp,’ which is often called the center-left, but is in fact, all about opposing Netanyahu.

In previous rounds of elections, groups of anti-Netanyahu demonstrators raised black flags, telling Netanyahu to “go.”

Now, on Saturday nights, the black flag is replaced with the blue and white flag of Israel, but the protests are ultimately driven by the same message. Millions of shekels are spent on ads to support the protests -- on billboards, on social media, and with paid text messages directly to our phones.

The government froze its reform program to allow a dialogue with the opposition, but the protests continue nevertheless. It is therefore clear that legal reform was just a trigger, and it is the Netanyahu haters who continue to fuel the protests against him.

We are in highly unconventional times. Every Saturday night, Tel Aviv’s Kaplan Junction, a major traffic artery, fills with demonstrators, and a small number of them go on to block traffic on the Ayalon highway, and some of them are arrested. However one looks at it, the goal is to disrupt the routine of people's lives.

Those who front the protests are not necessarily today’s opposition leaders. They are trying to jump on the bandwagon and take the credit, but those who lead the demonstrations from behind the scenes are politicians from the past. Examples include former prime ministers Ehud Olmert and Ehud Barak.

They also include the Mayor of Tel Aviv, Ron Huldai, who tried to face Netanyahu in elections and had to resign at the start of the race.

At the end of the day, there is one camp in Israel that is fighting because it was told there would be a dictatorship, while another camp feels that all these protests are merely Netanyahu hatred and an attempt to overthrow the government.

In response to these developments, the rightwing camp has initiated demonstrations in support of legal reform.

Although the ruling coalition has gained sixty-four seats in the ballot box, those who are in charge in Israel are, in fact, Netanyahu's opponents. The media, dominated by the left, the key economic actors, and the national trade union, which disabled international flights as part of the protests.

They have collectively succeeded in applying such a high degree of pressure that the reform has been halted.

There has been no significant breakthrough in talks so far, yet some observers say they are surprised that the negotiations have not yet broken down.

They should not be surprised; the dialogue appears to be, in actuality, an attempt by the government to dissolve its reform initiative.

The big question going forward is, what will the Right do? Will it go all the way with the reform, as it promised? One of its election tickets was to create a balance between the three branches of government.

The Right is unlikely to proceed because Israel is in an unprecedented state of polarization. Everyone is under pressure to take sides, and people are very quickly cataloged. Extremely tense moments occur daily among people in workplaces, family members, and friends.

It feels like Israeli society has sunk into a kind of quiet civil war. Hence, if the government succeeds in passing even a single clause of its reform, that would be considered a major achievement. The more likely scenario is a dissolution of the initiative.

The fact that the coalition is, itself, divided, also contributes to the likelihood of that scenario.

Some of the coalition’s members think the reform should be pursued to the end, others think it should be softened, and some think it should be dropped altogether.

An attempt to pass the reform without broad consensus stands a good chance of leading to the government’s collapse due to these divisions.

If the government drops the reform, the chances that it will fall will decline significantly. Polls show that support for the government has rapidly lost altitude and its members fear their political fate. That provides enough of a basis for them to remain together, even if some, like Levin, who initiated this snowball in the first place by going for large-scale reform, will be furious to see it dropped. 

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Danielle Roth-Avneri is a political commentator & panelist on Morning World and various current affairs news programs on television. She is a former Knesset reporter, news editor and columnist for the newspaper Israel Hayom. Read full bio here.

Political warfare reaches fever pitch

By Danielle Roth-Avneri

Israeli politics offers no respite.  Some six weeks after the formation of the government, which followed five rounds of elections in four years, a full-right-wing coalition is in power and opposition to its plans for judicial reform is deafening.  

The coalition seeks to strengthen the power of the government and parliament in relation to the Supreme Court, as is customary in many democracies around the world. But some members of the opposition, such as Gideon Sa'ar from the New Hope faction, which is part of Benny Gantz's National Unity, wanted to pass the same reform, are unhappy about the fact that, in the end, it is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government that is pushing through the reform.

Despite claims to the contrary, since Justice Minister Yariv Levin kicked off his judicial reform initiative there has been no attempt at dialogue by the opposition. Instead, from day one, it has attempted to spread alarming messages, which many in Israel – including this author – view as an attempt at perception engineering. When lies about Israel heading towards a dictatorship are repeated day after day, the falsehoods become ingrained.

The Right, for its part, refuses to properly explain its reform. Levin launched his initiative without clearly explaining that it is the norm in most countries, thereby allowing the opposition to win the cognitive battle. The opposition, meanwhile, is fueled by deep-rooted anti-Netanyahu sentiment.  

Every Saturday night, one of the country main traffic arteries– Tel Aviv’s Azrieli Junction –becomes the site of mass protests held under the slogan that the state is descending into dictatorship. Would a dictatorship permit democratic demonstrations of this size?

Legislation in the Israeli parliament is customarily routed through the Knesset’s Constitution, Law, and Justice Committee. Its Chairman, Religious Zionist Party MK Simcha Rothman is in the driving seat. As he learns about his new role, Rothman must manage a difficult committee. The opposition has not made a single offer to improve the judicial reform proposed by Levin. Its entire mission is to destroy it.

Recent days have seen MKs shouting that the government is wrecking the state, that people are fleeing that Israel is turning into a dictatorship, but they make no specific recommendations for improvement. MKs have been thrown out of committee, and backbencher opposition parliamentarians with no real achievements to their name were seen jumping up on tables and acting like wild beasts.

These images are a gift to Israel’s enemies, who see us Israelis destroying ourselves from within. All they want is for Israelis to fight each other.  

A key factor behind many of these scenes is the left-wing camp’s inability to accept Netanyahu's election as prime minister. On February 13, a 100,000-person rally was held outside the Israeli Knesset in Jerusalem.

A glance at some of these demonstrations and the statements heard there reveals that not everyone is aware of the details of judicial reform and the strategy for strengthening the executive branch. However, the protests serve the Left’s leaders, and the anti-Netanyahu contempt that they promote.

The day before the protest at the Knesset, Israeli President Isaac Herzog, a former leader of the center-left Labor party, proposed a compromise formula on judicial reform, and urged both sides to engage in dialogue.

He requested that the legislation be halted for two weeks. Days later, on February 15, a freeze on the first part of the reform program was announced. However, that freeze could be short term. The Right is unwilling to stop legislation at this stage, but it is willing to engage in dialogue. Legislation takes months.

The leaders of the Left, who have made no counter-proposals in the Constitution Committee, instead preferring to post videos of their clashes with the Right at the Committee, has led the Right to lose faith in the Left’s desire for dialogue. The Right has concluded that the Left is instead seeking a victory picture.   

The images unfolding in Israel these days are extraordinary. Masses of people are out on the streets, the media is backing the opposition, and therefore, it doesn't matter how much the Right is convinced of its cause - it can't ignore what is happening. At this point, Netanyahu is entering the picture and is looking for a way to rearrange the situation and end the crisis.

The coalition therefore has begun striking a more conciliatory tone, saying that reform isn't perfect, but also, that it's not going away.

Attorney General Gali Biharav Miara, meanwhile, is not allowing Netanyahu to discuss the judicial reform due to his legal affairs. This has caused bad blood between her and the government. This situation is approaching a stalemate.

While Netanyahu is absent from the judicial argument, chaos continues, and this serves the opposition's efforts to destabilize the government.

Regardless of how much the opposition claims it is working for the benefit of the state, this chaos serves it politically. The Right must learn a valuable lesson about the need for effective explanation. If it explained its case in a smart and pleasant manner with the same vigor as the Left pursues its cause, it wouldn't be in this poor situation of having to explain things in retrospect.

New and dramatic developments can be expected: The chaos cannot continue.

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Danielle Roth-Avneri is a political commentator & panelist on Morning World and various current affairs news programs on television. She is a former Knesset reporter, news editor and columnist for the newspaper Israel Hayom. Read full bio here.

Welcome to the new Netanyahu era

By Danielle Roth-Avneri

After five tumultuous election cycles held in the space of three-and-a-half years, and a government that lasted not much more than a year, the sixth Netanyahu government has reached the runaway and is ready to take off and deliver political stability for the State of Israel.

Political stability will be this government’s first goal since that is precisely what has been lacking in Israel. As in any country, instability causes citizens to suffer, so wherever one may be on the political map, political stability will be a positive development.

The current mood among sections of the Israeli public is reminiscent of the 1970s, when, in 1977, Menachem Begin and his Likud party were elected for the first time, triggering hysteria.

Then, as now, some Israelis are overjoyed that they got the government they voted for. The pro-Netanyahu camp is also happy that a prime minister from the largest political party formed the government, unlike the former setup, which was based on a government led by a prime minister (Naftali Bennett) at the head of a party with just six Knesset seats.   

Fueled by the largely left-wing Israeli media, the anti-Netanyahu camp is frightened to the point that some of its members believe that the LGBT community is facing Iranian-style repression.

This fear is completely baseless. There are always extremist views in any government, right or left, but these are generally fringe voices. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, for example, was a volatile hilltop youth activist who came from the extreme fringes of the political map in the past. Yet today, Israelis elected him to restore their sense of personal security. While many issues compete for the Israeli voter’s attention, personal security is a fundamental one that wins elections and places people in positions of power in this country.

Now, the State of Israel has a full-on right-wing government, reflecting the majority of the voters’ will. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, is still distributing roles – and already, he has unhappy campers in his party to deal with.

Likud Knesset Members Eli Cohen and Yisrael Katz will alternate as foreign ministers. This isn't the most sensible setup; will international leaders have to go online to find out who Israel’s foreign minister is on any given day?

Netanyahu also named close confidante Ron Dermer as minister for strategic affairs. This is truly an unusual move. Dermer was not elected, yet now is in a cabinet position. Only time will reveal whether the appointment will pay off and whether it will set a precedent for future professional appointments.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu implemented a brilliant maneuver by appointing the only gay Likud Knesset Member, Amir Ohana, as Knesset Speaker.

This position is one of the seven official symbols of state sovereignty. While political observers were waiting to see whether Netanyahu would appoint the moderate Likud figure of Ofir Akunis, or the firebrand politician Dudi Amsalem as Speaker, Netanyahu surprised everyone and selected Ohana, thereby contradicting the claims that his new government will be homophobic.

Several MKs have been designated ministers without portfolios, which is a shame since the government should be prioritizing its civilians over the needs of politicians.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s inauguration ceremony on December 29 was both stormy and jubilant, depending on where one sat in the Knesset.

Unlike prior governments, which relied on strained, artificial political arrangements and the narrowest of majorities, Netanyahu has a comfortable majority this time and has more room to maneuver. Even if he is pressed by the more extreme elements in his government, he has the margin to deal with that pressure.

Shas chairman Aryeh Deri who was convicted of criminal tax misconduct will serve as both health and interior minister in this government, two important positions, begging the question of just how far Netanyahu is prepared to go to placate his coalition partners.

Ultimately, the real showdown now is between Netanyahu and the Israeli media.

In each of the five election rounds so far, pro- and anti-Netanyahu camps battled it out, and this time, the Netanyahu camp triumphed.

Netanyahu was always certain that he would win. He went out into the “wilderness” of the opposition, patiently bided his time, and returned.

This government is facing an avalanche of criticism before it has even got to work. But it is important to keep in mind that it also had a lot of public support in Israel.

The big question now is how will it perform. Will it fail as its detractors predict? Or will it follow in the footsteps of Begin, who went on to sign a peace treaty with Egypt and disproved the fears that dominated sections of the country in the 1970s?

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Danielle Roth-Avneri is a political commentator & panelist on Morning World and various current affairs news programs on television. She is a former Knesset reporter, news editor and columnist for the newspaper Israel Hayom. Read full bio here.

For Israel’s political players, election day is only the halfway point

By Danielle Roth-Avneri

As far as Israeli voters are concerned, national elections are what shapes Israel’s political system, but for Israel’s politicians, they only mark the halfway point.

The reason for this is deeply tied to the structure and nature of Israel’s political system. To form a government, a party chairperson must be able to take to Israel’s President the recommendation of at least 61 Members of Knesset. But with multiple parties in the arena, that is no simple matter.

All experienced political players in Israel know that only when the exit polls come through, usually at 10 p.m. on election day, can the real calculations begin.

In the upcoming November 1 elections, the fifth in three-and-a-half years, the two main blocs are, once again, divided into the “Bibi” and “Just not Bibi” camps. This is essentially the only political game in town.

It is remarkable to take stock of how long Israel’s political system has been gridlocked. Teenagers who were aged 15-and-a-half when the first of those five elections marking the beginning of the current cycle of political paralysis was held are now eligible to vote. Many things have changed, but one constant remains: The presence of Opposition Chairman and Likud head Benjamin Netanyahu.

In one corner is an entire political camp determined to boycott him. It refuses to accept him in any manner, claiming it would be impossible to do so since he is on trial on corruption charges. This camp repeatedly calls for Netanyahu’s resignation. Netanyahu however refuses to succumb to these calls and has continued to dominate the political scene while at the same time mounting a legal defense in court. The current threshold for enabling a party to enter the Knesset is four seats. Parties that fail to reach the threshold remain outside of parliament and votes cast for them are wasted.

This is especially a concern for the anti-Netanyahu camp, which features a number of parties on the verge of the threshold. Among them are Labor and Meretz, which, based on the final polls, are likely to gain four to five seats each.

The Arab Joint List split up in this election season, and its three component parties are each fighting to get over the line. The elections may, in the end, be decided by the Arab-Israeli sector, where wasted votes could end up boosting the Netanyahu camp if one of the parties currently polling four seats fail to get past the threshold.  

The Arab Israeli street is well known for punishing its leaders when they split up into smaller parties. Voting percentages are consistently higher when the Arab parties join forces to run under a separate list.

As a result, Prime Minister Yair Lapid has made an effort to encourage Arab-Israelis to go out and vote.  

Lapid cannot become the next prime minister if one of the Arab parties fails to get into the Knesset. However, if Netanyahu also fails to gain the 61 votes he needs to form a government, Lapid will stay on as prime minister of a transitional government. Another spell as premier would boost his image, which is already strengthened by the fact that he has been in charge of military campaigns, international affairs, and the maritime border agreement with Lebanon – an agreement that many Israelis, including Netanyahu, regard as scandalous, but which is well regarded by others.

The Netanyahu camp has been strengthened, meanwhile, by the ability of right-wing religious nationalist politicians Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir to unite into a joint Religious Zionist list.

 Within this bloc, the Likud’s power has been eroded by the rise of Ben Gvir, who, according to polls, has convinced many young voters, including from Likud, to give him their ballot. If the polling proves to be correct, the Religious Zionist list will demand many ministries when it enters the government.

Meanwhile, Ayelet Shaked, the former number two in Yamina, a highly capable political player who now leads her own party, the Jewish Home, is running despite polls showing that she will not get past the threshold.

Netanyahu has attempted to remove her from the race to ensure that the two seats she is worth will go to him – so far with no success.

In the unlikely event that Shaked does get past the threshold, Netanyahu will find himself completely dependent on her to form a government, due to the expected tight results between the two political blocs.

If neither camp is able to form a government, a third option exists – namely that Benny Gantz, chairman of the National Unity party, does so. Gantz, a former partner of Lapid turned competitor-rival, believes he could get the needed 61 votes, though it is difficult to see how with the current math.

One option is that Gantz becomes prime minister with Likud entering a rotation government under his lead with Gantz receiving the first rotation and Netanyahu the second.

Another is that Gantz is able to somehow reel in the ultra-Orthodox parties to his government, though this looks improbable.

In the past several days, the television political campaigns have begun, and the election season has awoken from its slumber after the High Holidays.

The mudslinging is in full throttle, as it has been in past elections. Those who deliver the most devastating knockouts have the best chance of winning. Netanyahu, Lapid, Gantz, Shaked, and others will all be in the ring, slugging it out. 

At the end of the day, however, voting patterns are not likely to change much from the past round of elections. It is not possible to change the people. With every election costing over a billion shekels and wasting so much time, Israel’s politicians are beginning to appear ridiculous.

Israeli voters are asking how they can entrust them to lead, when they cannot get along with one another.

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Danielle Roth-Avneri is a political commentator & panelist on Morning World and various current affairs news programs on television. She is a former Knesset reporter, news editor and columnist for the newspaper Israel Hayom. Read full bio here.

Israel elections: Israel is in for a wild campaign season

By Danielle Roth-Avneri

After the upcoming Jewish holidays, Israelis will go to the polls on November 1. That means Israelis are in for a four-month-long election season instead of the usual three and thus face one of the longest campaign seasons in the country’s history.

Four months of spin, promises and manipulations are in store for Israelis as political parties work to try and conquer the hearts and minds of voters – voters who are already saturated by the unfulfilled promises of four elections in the past five years.

Instead of a prime minister leading a small six-member party, Israel now has a caretaker prime minister, which is just another way of saying a temporary prime minister in office for four months.

Lapid and Yesh Atid

Many things can be said about Yesh Atid, chairman and caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid, but one thing cannot be taken away from him: He managed to realize his dream of becoming premier. That’s not something many in politics can say.

But that achievement is a mere step in Lapid’s grand strategy of being voted in as prime minister, which he is pursuing with a lot more planning and political calculation than meets the eye. For example, Lapid’s decision to let former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett be first in the rotation between the two was not, as is often presented, a gentleman-like act, but rather, the result of a consideration that whoever enters elections as serving prime minister has an advantage.

There’s an Israeli saying that says that nothing is more permanent than the temporary and Lapid understands the political aspects of this very well. His temporary step up is part of a bigger goal to lead a real government.

The catch is, however, that Lapid’s ability to assemble a government will depend not only on his maneuvers but also on those of his fellow members in the center-left bloc.

Gantz and Sa'ar

Unlike in the last, exhausting four rounds of elections, this time around, the Israeli political map appears to be changing somewhat. Recently, Defense Minister Benny Gantz, Chairman of the Blue and White party, who was a political partner of Lapid, decided to challenge Lapid’s bid to become prime minister by forming a joint list together with Justice Minister Gideon Sa’ar, head of the rightist New Hope Party.

This pushes Lapid more to the left of the political map. For Sa’ar the maneuver makes good political sense since polls show him barely scraping across the threshold in the next elections if he runs alone. Gantz, for his part, becomes a real candidate for prime minister in the face-off against the opposition led by Benjamin Netanyahu and Gantz’s new joint list could lure some center-right voters who are fed up with the Netanyahu-led bloc.

These advantages, however, could all be undermined by the fact that Gantz’s messaging is too confused to clearly position himself politically.

Gantz attempts to satisfy everyone – the Left, the Right, the middle class, the Arabs and the ultra-Orthodox. In both politics and life, one can’t satisfy everyone. At this time, it seems that it is Sa’ar who closed an excellent deal for himself and is riding on Gantz’s shoulders, saving himself from erasure from the political map.

Ayelet Shaked

Meanwhile, Within the rightist bloc the Likud party grows stronger, according to the polls, despite the multiple trials that Netanyahu is facing. His base of voters remains loyal and seems to be getting stronger. Still, Netanyahu’s bloc would have to reach 61 Knesset seats to gain power and it may turn out that the only way he could do this is with the help of Interior Minister and Yamina party chairwoman, Ayelet Shaked, known to some as the princess of the right.

Shaked is still recovering from finding out very late, while on a state visit to Morocco, that the government she was a part of had fallen apart. She was practically the last person to know about the fall of the government despite her full loyalty to Bennett, her former Yamina colleague.

The shock and sense of treachery she felt in the face of Bennett’s failure to update her was clearly visible. Shaked’s party has been deeply scarred by the departure of members from the party itself and from the previous government, and her situation in the polls isn’t great. But if she joins forces with Netanyahu, this could be the push that the bloc needs to get into government.

Shaked has four months to reinvent herself, and she has a big advantage going into the elections since she is able to market herself as a right-wing force operating for the benefit of all.

As a result, it is worth closely tracking Shaked’s progress over the next four months. She could well be the decisive factor regarding what kind of government Israel has after the elections.

Labor and Meretz

Meanwhile, on the Left, Labor and Meretz find themselves under Lapid’s leadership. Meretz has more than its fair share of trouble. Health Minister and Party Chairman Nitzan Horowitz announced that he will not compete in the upcoming primaries for the party leadership, and the party’s number two, Environmental Protection Minister Tamar Zandberg, announced that she is taking a pause from political life.

Both of them understand that the ship is sinking and that they must jump off it. Meretz is scratching the electoral threshold in polls, and its sister party, Labor, refuses to merge with it. This week, former Meretz chairwoman Zehava Galon declared that she will return to politics to run for the party leadership. This move is designed to revive the party and could certainly prove effective since Galon is considered a skilled and highly esteemed political operative.

United Arab List

The Arab sector, for its part, will soon answer an important question as well: How many votes will the United Arab List party of Mansour Abbas gain after making history and becoming the first Arab party to serve in the ruling coalition government?

Will the Arab Israeli population reward Abbas for his actions or will they erase him from the political map?

Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, who declared his intention to enter politics, is currently shopping for parties and could run with either Lapid or Gantz-Sa’ar. It’s important to remember, however, that the Israeli population is no longer automatically enthralled with generals and former chiefs of staff, and demands someone who puts their quality of life at the top of their list of priorities.

In Israel, every day is dramatic and this is true all the more so in politics. The situation is highly fluid and the political arena is filled with capricious actors pursuing their dreams and ambitions, alongside “mere ideology.”

What remains certain, however, is that this campaign will be primal and highly charged.

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Danielle Roth-Avneri is a political commentator & panelist on Morning World and various current affairs news programs on television. She is a former Knesset reporter, news editor and columnist for the newspaper Israel Hayom. Read full bio here.

Israel likely on the way to elections in September

By Danielle Roth-Avneri

Earlier this month, the former coalition chairwoman MK Idit Silman (Yamina) dropped a bombshell. Shortly before 7 a.m. on April 6, Silman publicized a resignation letter she sent to Prime Minister Naftali Bennett -- who is chairman of Yamina -- announcing her departure from the coalition.

The immediate significance of Silman’s move is that the government’s narrow advantage over the opposition – an advantage of a single vote – is now gone, and the opposition and coalition are at a tie.

In Israeli politics, a tie means that in all likelihood, the days of this government are numbered.

The current government, which has been in power for nine months, saw Yamina become the ruling party with just six Knesset seats. As Bennett worked to achieve world peace, mediating between Russia and Ukraine, when it came to home turf he fell asleep at the wheel and his political structure simply fell apart.

Silman is a first-time Member of Knesset, serving her first term. She is from a religious-Zionist background and it took some work to convince her to enter the unity government made up of right-wing, centrist, left-wing, and Arab parties that have no common ideology.

Silman exhibited strong political-business abilities by securing the senior position of coalition chairwoman so early in her career.

One of the central features of her role is to act as the glue that binds the parties of the coalition, maintaining its unity. This is what Silman had engaged herself with since the coalition was formed.

Far from being an anonymous backbencher, she was the face of the coalition, playing a central role in maintaining the stability of the government. And then, one morning, she turned around and said she couldn’t go on anymore.

To understand why we need to look at things from Silman’s perspective. From its outset, the government was built out of incompatible puzzle pieces that seemed almost impossible to piece together.

Yet to serve the greater goal of pushing aside former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the parties managed to make it work, and they deserve credit for that achievement. Still, it was only a matter of time until the glue came unstuck, and the coalition started to crumble.

Bennett attempted to explain away Silman’s shock resignation by avoiding personal criticisms of her, leaving an unlikely path open for her to return. He pointed out that she was under constant verbal attack and harassment by Netanyahu’s supporters, as well as more militant right-wing political forces like Knesset Member Bezalel Smotrich, head of the Religious Zionist party.

This is true. Silman went through nine difficult months, experiencing repeat accusations that she is a traitor, and even her children were harassed. Yet this is all part and parcel of the political game, and the ability to stand up to such pressures should be in-built among all those who play it.

Bennett played down the significance of her resignation by arguing that it was all down to external pressure on Silman and her husband.

Attention is now on Bennett’s closest partner, Interior Minister and Yamina MK Ayelet Shaked. Shaked is an example of another right-wing politician who entered this government with great reluctance, and who has navigated a complex political situation ever since.

Now, Shaked must choose: Will she maintain allegiance to her political partner and remain with him until the government collapses, or should she dismantle the government herself and become the 61st vote in favor of the opposition, securing her legacy among the right-wing bloc?

Will she choose loyalty to Bennett, or opt for hero status on the right?

Shaked brought with her to the government Yamina’s Nir Orbach, who is chairman of the Knesset Committee, and Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office, Yamina’s Abir Kara.

The big question going forward is whether these three will move as a single unit. If they do, they would deal a fatal blow to Bennett’s position. As a result, the prime minister is intensively attempting to clarify Shaked’s goals. Ultimately, she holds the government’s fate in her hands.

As such, the Israeli political system has reached a rather absurd situation in which a prime minister who heads a party with six Knesset seats does not even control all of the occupants of those six seats.

Currently, the Knesset is in recess, and Silman’s decision will not have any immediate influence in the coming weeks.

On May 8, the Knesset will return from recess, and then it will find itself in a situation in which it cannot pass significant laws. That puts the entire country into paralysis.

The Right will seek to exploit the opportunity of a paralyzed government by searching for more defectors.

The coalition, for its part, understands that its days are numbered, and it is trying to do everything it can to survive, including appeasing the Joint Arab List, whose chairman, MK Ayman Odeh, called on Arab-Israeli members of the security forces to quit their position, a call that could constitute incitement.

The government could not wholeheartedly condemn his comments because it is fearful that may push him away. In light of the fact that Odeh should not be in the Knesset in the first place, this is a surreal development, but one that has been legitimized through the current political situation.

Despite all of the above, surprises can always occur in Israeli politics. Israel experienced four election campaigns in the past two years, and it saw prime ministers and a defense minister violate election promises to obtain power and remain there.

We must therefore remain open to the option of further surprises, and to know that another, currently unforeseen scenario, could always be around the corner.

The decision by Ra’am (United Arab List) to freeze its membership in the current coalition shows that the party can smell elections, and it is trying to position itself as a party that could break the coalition. Ra’am is the first Arab party to enter into a coalition and the government depends on it and thus has to deal with it cautiously. Nevertheless, the significance of the freeze is, at the moment, essentially spin, since the Knesset is in recess until May 8, and the move, therefore, has no significance beyond sending a defiant message to the government. 

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Danielle Roth-Avneri is an Israeli political commentator. She appears on the This Morning Program on Channel 13 Reshet TV. She is the former parliamentary correspondent of Israel Hayom, the most widely read newspaper in Israel. Read full bio here.

Fractured but stable: Israel’s coalition ends the year intact and strong

By Danielle Roth-Avneri

When MK Shirly Pinto (Yamina), was forced to go to the Knesset with her six-day-old baby in mid-December to enable the coalition to pass a vote, it was a defining moment. It was truly a scene to behold. Pinto, a deaf social activist, was mobilized by the coalition because it feared the opposition would not withhold a vote from its ranks in her absence.  

The scene showed just how low relations between the coalition and opposition have stooped. The sides continuously threaten to refuse to offset votes when a Member of Knesset is absent. The entire Knesset has been consumed by this out-of-control feud, which has even seen a refusal to offset votes for hospitalized MKs or those in mourning.

To see Pinto’s arrival from the journalist’s stand in the Knesset was remarkable. Naturally, a desire to hug her was awakened.

On the other hand, when events are subjected to further analysis, what transpires is that there is more to the story than meets the eye. Firstly, Pinto did not have to make the journey to the Knesset, she chose to do so to avoid a defeat for the coalition. Additionally, her arrival boosted the coalition’s image significantly. Here is a politician who is prepared to come to the plenum with her young baby; here is solidarity among the coalition’s members.

In other words, the opposition’s refusal to offset votes ended up playing to the advantage of the coalition’s image.

Technically, the entire drama ended up being superfluous as MK Mansour Abbas, leader of the Ra’am (United Arab List) party, which is part of the coalition, ended up voting by accident with the opposition, sending it to defeat in any case.

The legislation being voted on has assumed a backseat in this battle. The real issue is the clash between coalition and opposition. Neither side is prepared to support any legislation put forward by the other.

The absurd result is that, seven months after the formation of the coalition, beyond feuding, there is no real agenda in place.

A recent exclusive interview that I published in Israel Hayom with Knesset Chairman Mickey Levy (Yesh Atid), summarized the past seven months, and Levy asserted that the opposition has fallen in love with its position, at the expense of any national interest.

Levy lamented how difficult it is to work in this manner, noting that the opposition refuses to be part of any Knesset Committees.

The opposition boycott of all Knesset committees puts the coalition in a very strong position as the opposition is thus unable to receive the committee appointments that it desired.

With such a boycott in place, the coalition has absolute power in these committees, which decide policy on matters such as how to combat the coronavirus pandemic. The opposition is, therefore, the only loser from this boycott

On the other hand, the coalition is feeling the weight of ongoing attempts by the opposition to subject it to a ‘war of attrition’ that sees it come under attack every time a coalition member heads to the podium to make a speech.

Levy, in his interview, said one of the most difficult aspects of his job was being called ‘a thug’ or ‘a floor cloth.’ Levy feels that the respect that was once afforded to the coalition by the opposition in the past has been run over crudely.

Despite the united front that the coalition attempts to portray, it suffers from many cracks.

One demonstration of such a fissure came from Public Security Minister Omer Bar-Lev who comes from a left-wing party, Meretz.  After posting on social media that he held a meeting in December with the United States Undersecretary of State Victoria Noland and that the topic of “settler violence” had been a key feature of their conversation, the coalition “exploded.”

The coalition’s right-wing parties had a meltdown. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett responded harshly, as did his partner, Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked (Yamina). The sense is that Bar-Lev’s tweet led to a watershed moment.

Ultimately, Bar-Lev’s timing was also very poor, coming as it did amid a wave of Palestinian terrorism, and lacking any sense of proportion.

Bennett and Shaked, who appear to have lost many of their core supporters by forming the current government, seemed to have spotted an opportunity to bring back some of the votes they may have lost. If so, Bar-Lev’s tweet served their agenda.

We have now come to the end of a year condensed with political action, including a fourth round of elections since 2019, the swearing-in of a new Knesset, the swearing-in of a government, and the passing of a budget in November - which was perhaps the most difficult test of all for the new government.

The coalition, while managing the pandemic throughout, is surviving. No matter how many internal divides it suffers from, and how much the opposition aggrieves it, there is no denying that this government has proven its ability to survive in a fairly impressive manner.

Still, the glue holding this coalition together is the threat of a return to power by the leader of the opposition, Benjamin Netanyahu. So long as he continues to cast his shadow over the coalition, its motivation to remain together and survive remains very high.

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Danielle Roth-Avneri is a journalist and reporter on political matters, as well as an editor for the Israel Hayom/Israel Todaynewspaper, the most widely circulated publication in Israel. Read full bio here.

Netanyahu’s shadow is keeping the coalition together

By Danielle Roth-Avneri

Israel’s governing coalition has reached the significant milestone of 100 days in power. The fact that it has remained intact is very much thanks to the shadow cast by Benjamin Netanyahu, the former prime minister, and now leader of the opposition, whose presence acts as the number one stabilizing force keeping the coalition together. The fear that Netanyahu could return and take power is enough to keep the disparate coalition from falling apart.

The effects of Netanyahu’s potential return were also apparent during Bennett’s speech to the United Nations General Assembly on October 27, when Israelis  watching the speech had one key question in mind: How did it compare to Netanyahu’s speeches in the same forum?

Bennett struggled to live up to Netanyahu’s standard, and his political rivals and Netanyahu’s circle in the Likud fanned the flames by playing up images of an empty UN building during the prime minister’s speech, along with statements mocking Bennett for being premier despite heading a party with only six Knesset seats – a critical mantra that has yet to vanish after more than 100 days in office. In the meantime, Bennett placed himself in direct conflict with the Health Ministry, by arguing that national leaders take the full picture into consideration beyond those raised by health officials.

It is customary to give a new government a 100-day honeymoon period and that is exactly what this coalition got. With a largely friendly media in place, the sense is that most criticism levelled at the government has been gentle.  

This phenomenon has had two important side effects. The first is that decisions on how to manage the fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic have been less than optimal. The second is that government decisions that would otherwise have attracted firestorms of controversy from within the coalition have seen the factions quietly work together instead.

There is no sign of the loud media feuding over government decisions – a sight that was so common in the last coalition.

The ‘radio silence’ can mostly be attributed to the fear of a Netanyahu comeback.

As a political affairs journalist, it is rare to hear so few MKs briefing the media against one another.

Another factor behind this cooperative spirit is the fact that several ministers and deputy ministers – politicians who have never before had portfolios in the past – are now realizing their dreams.

Meanwhile, the coalition’s member factions continue to either ignore or disregard multiple election promises they made throughout the four recent election campaigns. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett promised not to sit with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, or with the United Arab List party – both key members of the current coalition.

Bennett’s critics in the Israeli public, on the other hand, have not forgotten these promises, and are far from reaching the stage where they have put their outrage behind them.

For Lapid, disappearing ‘behind the scenes’ into the work of the Foreign Ministry has been a convenient maneuver, as the country grapples with the Delta wave of the coronavirus, and the number of deaths remains high.   

Lapid has additional reasons to keep a low profile. As chairman of the Yesh Atid party, while in opposition he pledged to form a government no larger than 18 members. That was before he became  Foreign Minister in a government that has 28 ministers, and a number of deputy ministers.

This government has also not been shy about activating the Norwegian Law, which allows MKs to resign, become ministers, and automatically enlarge the government by bringing the next MKs on the party list into the coalition in their place. These moves, combined with the appearance of deputy ministers, cost the taxpayer  tens of millions of shekels.

Yet criticism of all of this has been muted, with the exception of some rumblings in the opposition ranks.

Thus, the coalition has reached absurd situations, such as the appointment of Yisrael Beitenu’s Eli Avidar as Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office – a role that no one seems to know much about.

Meanwhile, right-wing coalition members are embarrassed by the government’s agenda, but are keeping quiet about it. The long called for demolition of the Khan al-Ahmar Beduin settlement –  between Jerusalem and the Dead Sea  –  is off the agenda, and Defense Minister Benny Gantz is warming relations with the Palestinian Authority. These moves are being ‘contained’ by the government’s right-wing ministers.

The left-wingers in the government are also unhappy about the government’s approval of outposts in Judea and Samaria and settlement construction, but they too have learned to censor themselves.

The United Arab List has learned how to vanish during security escalations.

And yet, the government deserves credit for delivering on one of its core promises: Quiet for the Israeli people. This goal has been achieved.

Should the government succeed in passing the bi-annual state budget, this would likely guarantee stability for two years. After passing that milestone, a breaking apart of the coalition becomes highly unlikely.

Prior to the second and third budget votes, we are likely to witness ultimatums, as various coalition elements try to pull budgetary resources in their direction. But in all likelihood, the arguments will be resolved in the last minute through compromise.

Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman promised a raise in the wages of conscripted soldiers prior to the elections. He found a way to throw this pledge aside, after available funds all went to other causes.

Liberman did not cheerlead Benny Gantz’s move to pass an increase in the pension for career IDF officers, who often retire at the age of 45. But he nevertheless went along with it. This is a sign of the ‘spirit of compromise’ that can allow a budget to be passed by this coalition.

When Netanyahu was on an extended holiday in Hawaii, one of the jokes circulating among government officials expressed the hope that he’d fall in love with the place and stay there.

In reality, of course, Netanyahu came back, and his Likud party is preparing to continue disrupting Knesset discussions with protest shouts.

That won’t be enough to bring down this coalition. Only two things can do that: Failure to pass the budget, or Netanyahu leaving politics.

If Netanyahu stops leading the Likud, the main roadblock for Likud joining the government would be lifted. The Centrist parties could find new motivation to join the Likud – motivation that will never appear in any way so long as Netanyahu heads that party.

It is this personal boycott of Netanyahu that led the current government into existence, and so long as Netanyahu remains leader of the opposition, the fear that he may return will keep the coalition together.

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Danielle Roth-Avneri is a journalist and reporter on political matters, as well as an editor for the Israel Hayom/Israel Todaynewspaper, the most widely circulated publication in Israel. Read full bio here.

A New Chapter In Israeli Politics

By Danielle Roth-Avneri

Naftali Bennett, head of the Yamina Party, and Yesh Atid party chief Yair Lapid have – bar a last-minute failure – managed to do the unbelievable and put together a new governing coalition that ousts Benjamin Netanyahu from power after 12 years.

How were they able to do this? In the past few months, Bennett appeared to zig-zag no less than three times. He said he would set up a coalition government with the ‘bloc for change’ made up of parties determined to see Benjamin Netanyahu banished to the opposition. Then, during May’s Gaza conflict, he abandoned those efforts telling confidantes that a government leaning on Ra’am was off the table due to clashes in Israel between Jews and Arabs,  – only to resume negotiations as the ceasefire took hold, leading to the emergence of the eight-party coalition.

But there is likely more to this story than meets the eye. When Bennett announced that he was giving up on the change coalition during the Gaza hostilities, he put on a show deserving of an Oscar for Best Actor. He and Lapid continued negotiations throughout the entire time, enjoying the quiet that was generated by the impression that their efforts to set up a coalition had ended.

By putting on this show, Bennett and Lapid were able to mislead the entire country.  

Bennett has much invested in this coalition. If the coalition fails and Israel goes to a fifth elections in two years Yamina will most likely be erased from the political map.  His choices were simple: Safeguard his right-wing ideology and remain outside of the political system, or become prime minister.

Bennet’s gamble is also simple: If he is perceived as a good prime minister, his supporters will forget his own violations of his election pledges.

During the campaign, Bennett sat in a television studio and announced categorically that he will not enter into a coalition with Lapid. And yet, here we are, with a power-sharing Lapid – Bennett coalition. 

Whatever one may think of the way the coalition came into being ,the fact that Lapid was able to call the outgoing president, Reuven Rivlin, last Thursday (while the president was attending a soccer game) and announce that he was able to form a government is a powerful sign that change is on the way.

To witness someone able to unseat Netanyahu after 12 years in power is a ‘big bang’ moment in Israeli politics, which has shaken up the entire system and created a new dynamic.

The fact of the matter is that the alternative of a fifth elections is untenable for the State of Israel. The parties entering the new coalition understood that they have to find a way to get along. Their ability to reach dramatic compromises is an achievement on their part, in light of their vastly contrasting ideologies.

The common denominator underlying the entire coalition is the drive to eject Netanyahu from power. The coalition has no other clear objectives, but that goal alone was enough to bring an Arab Islamist party together with a right-wing national religious party, as well as parties located throughout the political spectrum.

And so, Israel reaches the unprecedented situation in which the head of a party with just six Knesset seats becomes prime minister.

On the other side of the political divide, rumors and reports have been swirling about last-ditch efforts to torpedo the new coalition. One unconfirmed report is that the Likud will hold snap primaries – but it is not at all clear how that would interfere with the emergence of the new coalition.

The change coalition, meanwhile, has reached agreements on many core issues. Tens of billions of shekels in public funds will go to the Arab sector in line with the demands of Ra’am party leader Mansour Abbas.

Legislation that holds that a prime minister who has been in power for eight years will need a four-year cooling off period is being prepared, in what appears to be personal legislation designed to deny Netanyahu access to a new run for office any time soon.

These are key clauses in the coalition agreement.

There are additional, controversial, clauses, such as expanding the Norwegian law, which states that ministers can quit the Knesset (as MKs while retaining their positions as ministers), enabling the nest person on their party list to enter parliament as an MK. Lapid publicly came out against  this set up last year, only for him to approve it in this coalition.

The current expanded Norwegian Law is set to cost the taxpayer 110 million shekels.

This coalition will be an inflated government made up of no fewer than 28 ministers and six deputy ministers. The Norwegian law will allow all coalition parties to  Bring a significant number of party members into parliament as MKs.

At the time of writing, even though the outcome of a new government looks highly likely,  last-minute changes can still occur, and the coalition has yet to be sworn in.  Despite the intense pressure currently on the Yamina party, failure to swear in the government would be highly surprising, and a new chapter in Israeli politics looks like it is about to begin.

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Danielle Roth-Avneri is a journalist and reporter on political matters, as well as an editor for the Israel Hayom/Israel Todaynewspaper, the most widely circulated publication in Israel. Read full bio here.

The Bennet riddle

By Danielle Roth-Avneri

One week before the deadline expires for Benjamin Netanyahu to either form a new government or return the mandate to President Rivlin, the prime minister appears to be at a dead end. While seven days is time enough for a last-minute breakthrough, Netanyahu’s path to forming a government appears to be obstructed by the very bloc he put together before the elections.

Prior to the March vote, Netanyahu worked to strengthen the position of the Religious Zionist Party, headed by Bezalel Smotrich. Netanyahu helped the party push through the electoral threshold  on the understanding that Smotrich  would help him form a right-wing government.

But Smotrich is unwilling to hear of any coalition that would lean on the support of the Islamist movement affiliated United Arab List and its leader, Mansour Abbas. The UAL, which squeezed past the post to gain four seats, has become the smallest party to date to become kingmaker – and is now a decisive factor in whether a coalition can arise or whether the country will go to fifth elections.

On Saturday evening, Smotrich, outraged by Netanyahu’s call for all sides to cool tensions after violent events in Jerusalem, went as far as to say that it might be time to replace the prime minister, triggering return fire from Netanyahu.

All eyes are now on Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett, who finds himself facing an acute dilemma.

Should he form a government with center and left-wing parties, he would, at the tender age of 49, become prime minister of Israel. But he would be a prime minister of compromise in a government that would not be right- wing. It would be a government ‘of change’ – that change being the expulsion of Netanyahu from the political scene.

It would also include Gideon Sa’ar’s Tikva Hadasha (‘New Hope’) party, which, while right-wing like Bennett, has vowed never to sit under Netanyahu.

Yamina’s name reflects its ideology – it literally means “rightward”. And yet it is now considering entering into a government of compromise. Herein lies the Bennett riddle. Will he give up his right-wing values and realize a one-time opportunity to become prime minister?

If he does enter into a rotation agreement with Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, Bennett will go down in history as the man who ended Netanyahu’s long reign in power. There are many political forces in Israel who want to see this happen, as well as several media organizations in Israel.

Yet Bennett’s voters cast their ballot for a right-wing government. Prior to the elections, Bennett appeared on Channel 20 and signed a document before viewers vowing not to sit in a Lapid government.  

He is now facing pushback from people in his own party. Bennett is facing the dilemma of his life. He could make history if he becomes prime minister, but if, due to its internal tensions and delicate nature, the compromise government falls soon after being born, it could end Bennett’s political career.

On the other hand, should Bennett enter the fifth round of elections since 2019 as the incumbent prime minister, this might strengthen his chances of gaining broader support for Yamina.

The parties examining the possibility of forming a government without Netanyahu are marketing the potential coalition as a unity government. But this government would be boycotting Netanyahu, so the badge of ‘unity’ appears somewhat out of place.

Rather, it would be made up of an assortment of elements, many of which have nothing in common. Nevertheless, negotiations are firmly under way over who would get what role in such a government.

All of the potential party members of the anti-Netanyahu coalition have appointed representatives to take part. Their central objective is to reach the goal of being able to tell President Rivlin that they are capable of forming a government if, as seems likely, Netanyahu returns the mandate to form a government he received from the president. If they obtain this objective, they will receive a shot at forming the next government.

According to sources in Yesh Atid, the second largest party in in parliament after Likud, Lapid is acting as the responsible adult, promoting the message that what  matters most is to form a government and not who gets which portfolio.t. This is a message that is particularly aimed at Bennett. It comes as negotiations about distributing roles enter an intense phase.

Disputes are already arising. According to Channel 12 News, Sa’ar has marked out the position of defense minister – a development that caused Gantz to clarify that he will not take part in the compromise government if he does not continue in the role he holds in the current government.

This threat raises the question of whether the assumption that Gantz is automatically in the pocket of the anti-Netanyahu bloc is in fact correct. It even raises speculation that Netanyahu might again be able to entice Gantz back into a government with him, by offering him to be prime minister first in a new rotation agreement.

While in theory this scenario seems unlikely, in the end Gantz has already made such a U-turn in the past, so it could potentially happen again.

As the political press monitors negotiations over future positions, it remains possible that Netanyahu is cooking up a new ‘magic trick’ to find a way out of the dead end.

As with all good magicians, Netanyahu has proven adept at getting the media to look at one ‘show,’ while preparing to pull a surprise far from where the public’s attention is focused. He might well be doing it again.

As for the idea that Netanyahu become a candidate for the next president, this seems to be more of a concept conjured up by the media than a real initiative. As a defendant in a trial that is just getting started, Netanyahu will get better treatment as a sitting prime minister. He therefore has a clear interest in hanging on to his position for as long as he can as the trial moves forward.

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Danielle Roth-Avneri is a journalist and reporter on political matters, as well as an editor for the Israel Hayom/Israel Todaynewspaper, the most widely circulated publication in Israel. Read full bio here.

Will fourth elections lead to a fifth?

By Danielle Roth-Avneri

On March 23, Israelis will go to the polls for the fourth time in the past eighteen months, amid fears that a fifth round of elections could be around the corner.

By this point, repeated elections are seen by many disillusioned Israelis as just the latest sign of a failing political system, which adds to pre-existing hardships – economic, health, or educational – generated by the coronavirus pandemic.

Elections today have come to represent a cycle of political instability, leading many citizens to roll their eyes in cynicism and sorrow.

Question marks hang over whether any party will be able to put together a 61-member coalition required to form a coalition and the prospect of a fifth election since April 2019  is not far-fetched. 

Unlike the past three elections, which revolved around the sole question of whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should remain in his position or not, another dimension has emerged in this campaign in the form of a new right-wing political force.

Gideon Sa’ar broke away from the Likud in order to challenge Netanyahu and he and his New Hope party are taking voters away from Likud, as well as from the centrist Blue and White party, once heralded as the party that could oust Netanyahu, yet today is fighting to just get over the electoral threshold.

Sa’ar also has the potential to take votes away from his right-wing rival Naftali Bennett and his Yamina party, while center-left parties, such as Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, the second-largest party today according to polls, are prepared to work with him.

For those unwilling to vote for Netanyahu because of the criminal indictments against him, Sa’ar is the natural alternative. And yet, Sa’ar and New Hope have a problem – they have stalled and are struggling to market themselves as the right-wing alternative to Netanyahu.

While Sa’ar was able to take moderate Likud rightwing Knesset Members with him, such as Ze’ev Elkin, and Yifat Shasha-Biton, the popular chair of the Knesset’s Coronavirus committee who used her position to challenge many of the government’s decisions regarding the pandemic, the party has lost momentum according to polling.

Still, the New Hope party has a full month to get its act together, and that is a long time in the Israeli political campaign cycle.

All Likud’s rivals share a common fear, namely that Netanyahu will take advantage of the successful vaccination program and grow in electoral strength. According to internal Likud polls, the party is on track to capture 33 Knesset seats, compared to current polling in which it averages 29 Knesset seats.

Meanwhile, on the center and left side of the political map, the big winner is Yair Lapid, who is polling consistently at around 18 seats and is positioned as the second-largest party in the Knesset. Lapid is benefiting from the fact that Netanyahu is deliberately ignoring Sa’ar, in order to avoid giving him media limelight, and is focusing his attacks on him. This serves Lapid’s interests well. 

  Lapid’s campaign platform offers the alternative of a ‘sane government’ and focuses on what he describes as the failed management of the coronavirus crisis.

Netanyahu helped oversee a hook-up between far-right figures Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, creating a bloc that could potentially prevent an opposition coalition from forming, if the list passes the threshold. But doing so may push other right-wing voters, repelled by Smotrich and Ben Gvir, to Bennett’s Yamina party.

 This leads to the question of who, exactly, is Naftali Bennett? Because it is Bennett who will shape the fate of the next government. He has not ruled out sitting with Netanyahu, but refused to do so in the previous elections.

Bennet may well be the primary kingmaker in the coming elections. Netanyahu will offer him any portfolio he pleases, including the Defense Ministry, which is most dear to Bennett, as well as the Justice Ministry.

 In the event of another tie, the key to the formation of the next coalition could well lie with defectors that move from one party to another –  as Knesset Member Gadi Yevarkan did when he ditched Blue and White and moved to Likud in 2020.

Netanyahu will search for more defectors and seek out weak links in opposition parties. The number of such defections could mean the difference between forming a government and going to fifth elections.

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Danielle Roth-Avneri is a journalist and reporter on political matters, as well as an editor for the Israel Hayom/Israel Todaynewspaper, the most widely circulated publication in Israel. Read full bio here.

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NACHMAN SHAI & DANIELLE ROTH-AVNERI WEIGH IN

The Coalition Band Aid That Turned Into A National Wound

By Danielle Roth-Avneri

The relationship between Blue and White and Likud is dysfunctional. Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz announced on Tuesday that he will support a vote of no confidence in the government, though he also left open a narrow window for a potential attempt to avoid elections.

When the unity government was formed in April, as an emergency step to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, Gantz took the bold step of parting company with his political allies in order to join forces with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

But since that time, the pandemic has raged and the government founded as a response to it has floundered.

The government has grown ultra-polarized, with Blue and White turning into an 'in-house opposition' within the very government it is a part of. The term 'unity' in the government has been emptied of meaningful content, and none of the government's ministers are hiding this fact. While in April there was a semblance of cooperation, today neither Gantz nor Netanyahu make any pretence that the government is working.

Blue and White point to the failure of Likud and Netanyahu to pass a state budget as a major transgression, and their claim has merit. The coalition agreement stipulates a deadline for budgets, and Blue and White’s expectations for the agreement to be kept have been left unmet.

Yet Blue and White is in a trap. As soon as the party entered the government, all power passed to Netanyahu, and this was a calculated risk that Gantz agreed to take. Netanyahu has repeatedly demonstrated how little he values Gantz and Blue and White's ministers, as his decision to avoid updating them on his reported visit to Saudi Arabia demonstrates. Netanyahu continues to play a skillful, calculated political game, while Gantz, who remains a political novice, is dragged along.

Blue and White would be unlikely to go to elections if the budget delay lasted just a few weeks.

Yet the party is in a pressure cooker, one which is creating real fissures in Blue and White, undermining Gantz's leadership as it does so. While Netanyahu has been able to keep the Likud party under control, despite the occasional complaints within the party, the same is not the case for Blue and White. Serious internal rivalries are emerging. One camp, led by Justice Minister Avi Nissenkorn, favors an uncompromising approach to Netanyahu even if another round of elections is the price to be paid.

On the other side of the internal rift, Gantz prefers to avoid elections, despite public statements in which he says he does not fear a return to the ballot box, and despite the looming no confidence vote.

Ultimately, Gantz has struggled to settle a central paradox. While he certainly wants to become prime minister in November 2021, as the coalition agreement stipulates, he does not wish to be perceived as someone who will simply acquiesce in order to reach that objective.

Gantz has already proven that, as his party's last election slogan stated, for him, Israel is the consideration above all others. When he left his political allies to join the Netanyahu government, he demonstrated how seriously he took his party's slogan.

But he also knows there is a limit to how many more times he can compromise with Netanyahu.

Gantz's decision to form a Defense Ministry commission of inquiry into the purchase of German-made submarines – an affair that Netanyahu's opponents claim involves improper conduct by the prime minister – is intended to demonstrate that he is not under the full control of Netanyahu.

That strategic step could end up causing Netanyahu to break up the government and proceed toward elections. It is a step that could bury Gantz's remaining chances of becoming prime minister, therefore.

It is also an effort by Gantz to salvage what remains of his credibility.

If Netanyahu ends up triggering elections, Gantz can save face by pointing to his current warnings, and claim that he was willing to go to elections the entire time.

Beneath the radar, however, and despite repeated calls for elections, Blue and White is formulating a compromise offer for Netanyahu as a final test of his willingness to work with them.

And yet, Blue and White is not expected to fare well in any future elections. The latest polls show it barely crossing the two-digit threshold, and for a party that in the last elections gained 33 seats [before its break up with Yesh Atid], this presents a bleak political horizon for the party.

While senior party members speak of not fearing new elections, those who rank lower down the party list know their political survival is unlikely.

In the near future, the Blue and White party is expected to hold primaries. Senior members of the party no longer wish to defer to Gantz. They want greater involvement in the decision making. Some see themselves as future replacements for Gantz. The primaries will revolve around the central dilemma hovering over the party: Should it fold and remain in the coalition, or should it face the prospect of vanishing in the next elections?

Opposition Chairman Yair Lapid – Gantz’s former partner in Blue and White – is, for his part, satisfied with all of these developments. His position in the polls is excellent, and it is clear that he wants elections as soon as possible. Lapid imagines linking up with other political forces, such as Naftali Bennet's Yamina party, and foresees a new path to the premiership. Yet Lapid seems more interested in his political future than in the national interest of avoiding elections at this time.

The political system has not yet passed the final point of no return leading to a fourth round of elections since April 2019. While chances of new elections are certainly high, the Israeli political system, true to form, remains unpredictable.

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Danielle Roth-Avneri is a journalist and reporter on political matters, as well as an editor for the Israel Hayom/Israel Todaynewspaper, the most widely circulated publication in Israel.

HEBREW PODCAST: שיחה מלב אל לב, עם דניאלה רוט אבנרי,כתבת ועורכת ב״ישראל היום

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A Conversation With Israel Hayom Correspondent, Danielle Roth-Avneri

NO PANDEMIC CAN STOP OUR POLITICAL CRISIS

By Danielle Roth-Avneri

Only a coronavirus-sized global pandemic could break Israel's political paralysis - but not for long. 

Just a few months after the formation of the government, political feuding and paralysis is back, yielding to nobody and nothing, including the coronavirus crisis, potentially bringing us to the cusp of national elections – once again – within a year. 

One of the clearest signs of this new phase is the escalating political battle between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Alternate Prime Minister Gantz. The number of issues on which they clash only continues to grow. 

Netanyahu is insisting upon an annual budget, due to rapidly changing conditions. Gantz, meanwhile, seeks a bi-annual state budget, saying it will provide greater stability. 

The budget argument is also governed by the political interests of either side. Netanyahu wants short-term political arrangements, which would allow him to dismantle the government if he feels the need to do so. Gantz, on the other hand, wants to safeguard his position as future prime minister, in line with the coalition deal. The absence of a budget would serve Netanyahu’s goals and undercut those of Gantz because it would amount to a pretext for the dissolving of the coalition.  

Coalition agreements have also been violated. The first of which was carried out by the Blue and White Party, which voted in favor of a law banning 'conversion therapy' for gays and lesbians, something that could push the seat of prime minister even further from Gantz's reach. 

For many of Gantz's initial supporters, recent months have been a resounding disappointment. One would expect that a politician for whom an entire role was invented - that of alternative prime minister - would work day and night to prove himself, and generate new, creative ideas, in order to justify his position. 

He has failed to do so. His decision making is extremely slow. Off the record, some of his associates have been increasingly critical of his drawn out demeanor. Instead of being at the forefront of responses to Israel's multiple crises, he often appears to be absent. 

While many of his voters remain disgruntled by his violation of his pledge not to form a government with Netanyahu, Gantz could have redeemed himself in the eyes of those voters if his commendable step toward national unity in the face of an emergency had been followed with a demonstration of leadership. 

Unfortunately for Gantz, that is not what has happened. His spokespeople often release anemic media messages expressing how difficult the situation is, but leadership, not commentary, is what is needed from him. 

As a result, in a political reality divided firmly between pro and anti-Netanyahu camps, with no middle ground, Gantz’s Blue and White party has plummeted in the polls to a mere nine mandates, making it difficult to imagine how he can assume the position of prime minister next year. 

Gantz has been careful not to aggravate Netanyahu or to break new political ground. The result is that he is now politically paralyzed. 

Even in his role as defense minister, a position from which he could demonstrate leadership and experience, he is subsumed by Netanyahu, seemingly of his own will, leaving the Israeli people wondering why he seems so absent - even in what is a flagship role in Israel. 

LEADERSHIP TO EMULATE

Yair Lapid, leader of Yesh Atid and chairman of the opposition, is filling the void of alternative leadership created by Gantz. Lapid, now polling at 16 seats – a leap forward for him, is capitalizing upon his role as opposition chief. Gantz would do well to emulate that example.

Lapid has already launched his 2021 election campaign, and is gaining the support of voters disappointed in Gantz. 

This month witnessed another example of leadership, one that promoted gender equality in the political system. Three women, from three different political parties, who sit on the Coronavirus Knesset Committee, cancelled a government decision. 

The Committee Chairwoman, Yifat Shasha Biton (Likud), Yulia Malinkovski (Yisrael Beitenu) and Hila Shay Vazan (Blue and White) boldly challenged the government's desire to shutter public pools and gyms and to close down beaches on weekends, citing the lack of data supporting the idea that such places are transmission hubs and that during the pandemic, allowing people to be active in such places creates an outlet for mental wellbeing. 

Their ability to band together and challenge the government is an example of how to prioritize the needs of our citizens; above and beyond our coalition politics. The contrast between their conduct and the conduct of Gantz could not be more stark. 

Shasha-Biton made her decision knowing that the punishment ultimately doled out to her from the Likud for her “rebellion” was in the offing, but she acted nonetheless. Ultimately, she was removed from her post as a result.

Gantz seems to be steered primarily by what best ensures the safety of his political seat. 

Despite the ongoing, severe challenges posed by the pandemic, a return to political crisis is in full swing in Israel. 

The possibility of yet another round of elections is back on the agenda.

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Danielle Roth-Avneri is a journalist and reporter on political matters, as well as an editor for the Israel Hayom/Israel Todaynewspaper, the most widely circulated publication in Israel.