By Justin Pozmanter
There is a new administration in Washington. When it comes to Israel, commentators across the spectrum are hard at work telling their readers and listeners what to think. Some say it is the dawn of a bright new day, others seem to think the sky is falling. However, despite what we all think may happen next, we need to wait for concrete actions before passing judgment.
The Trump administration was arguably the most pro-Israel in history. In this context “pro-Israel” means generally in agreement with the views of the democratically elected government of the state of Israel.
The actions taken by the Trump administration related to Israel were in line with the direction of the Republican Party, which has trended more and more pro-Israel over the last two decades. The Democratic Party, which has traditionally been just as supportive as the Republicans, has generally trended in the opposite direction, particularly since 2009.
However, despite this trend, very few Democratic voters are ideologues whose views reflect strong feelings toward Israeli policy. This is a key mistake people make when following this issue. The actions of Israel, or the current Prime Minister, generally do not guide partisan attitudes in the United States.
Polls show that Democrats dislike Prime Minister Netanyahu and Republicans like him, but it is doubtful that a significant percentage of respondents could site a single difference in the Prime Minister’s policies as compared to any of his opponents.
How members of each party view the Israeli Prime Minister has more to do with their relationship with the current President, or recent Presidents, and how the President publicly frames the relationship, than Israeli policies.
This is not to say Israel is blameless when there are rifts. Israeli actions, and just as often rhetoric, play a very prominent role in how administration officials, from the President down the line, as well as Congressional leaders, perceive and publicly address the US-Israel relationship.
The current trend of the Democratic party places an outsized importance on the Biden administration when it comes to the long-term strength of the US-Israel relationship.
Today, there is nothing that could be more beneficial to the long-term health of the US-Israel relationship than a Democratic administration perceived as strongly pro-Israel. While the attitude of party leadership has always been important, it is exacerbated in today’s era of hyper-partisanship.
Given the feelings of nearly every Democrat towards President Trump, the prevailing instinct is to oppose anything he supported. The Biden administration will distance itself from the Trump agenda almost across the board. Hopefully, they will realize that many of the Trump administration’s policies related to Israel and the region – recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, sovereignty in the Golan, leaving the JCPOA, and spearheading regional peace and normalization – are positives for Israel, the United States, and the region.
While a Democratic President can have a broader and deeper impact on Democratic voters than anyone else, maintaining bipartisan support for Israel does not fall on President Biden and Democrats alone.
While some Democratic members of Congress have taken outwardly hostile stands against Israel, and in some cases Jews more generally, Republicans angling for pro-Israel votes by lumping all Democratic leaders, most of whom are generally pro-Israel, with the handful of hostile members is unhelpful.
Bipartisan support is not simply a talking point. It is indispensable to the ongoing strength of the bilateral relationship and a critical aspect of Israel’s strategic outlook. Therefore, everyone who cares about Israel should be thankful for support from Democrats and Republicans alike.
As things stand today, we do not know exactly where President Biden stands on specific issues. It has been over a dozen years since his last Senate vote.
In President Biden’s first foreign policy address at the State Department on February 4, he did not mention Israel or the Iranian nuclear program. His only reference to the Middle East was a few sentences related to the civil war in Yemen.
There have been a few indications since taking office, most clearly coming from his Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, in a wide-ranging interview on CNN.
Secretary Blinken’s answers were a mixed bag. He was positive on Jerusalem, the Abraham Accords and by stating the administration recognizes that only Israel and the Palestinians can negotiate final status issues, he signaled that there will be no grand American plan neither side can accept.
However, he also fell into the false equivalencies of “unilateral actions on both sides” and while recognizing current Israeli control of the Golan, he also left open the possibility Israeli sovereignty could be called into question in the future.
There almost certainly will be disagreements on issues such as settlement construction. However, it appears the Biden administration, while perhaps not as accommodating to Israeli positions as its predecessor, is signaling a more realistic approach than that of the Obama administration.
On the JCPOA, Secretary Blinken’s comments were mostly, though not entirely, negative. It is clear the administration would like to rejoin the deal. This would set up a confrontation with Israel, regardless of who wins the Israeli election in March. However, despite the recent announcement of a willingness to initiate talks to re-enter the deal, there are also some signs that the approach to Iran will not be quite as accommodating as that of the Obama administration.
As with everything else, thus far the administration is simply signaling what they plan to do. Rarely does any administration do precisely what they say in their first 100 days in office, either because of a change of heart or changes in circumstances. Therefore, everyone who cares about Israel and the US-Israel relationship should wait and see what policies the administration ultimately pursues. There are reasons for major concern, but there are also reasons for optimism. The Biden administration certainly will not be the Trump administration, but it is also unlikely to simply be a third term of the Obama administration.
Justin Pozmanter is a former foreign policy advisor to Minister Tzachi Hanegbi. Before making Aliyah, he worked at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and practiced law. Read full bio here.