By David Hacham

An increasingly intense struggle to succeed the aging and ailing Palestinian Authority (PA) President, Mahmoud Abbas, is underway.   

The use of armed militias may be key to a contender's success. Armed support will be needed if the power struggle turns violent. 

Such militias could be ordered to take control of symbolic government sites, like the headquarters of the PA Presidency in Ramallah, or TV and radio stations. While the PA has not clashed with such militias until now, their presence is a looming one.

Abbas, 84, is not in good health, and has been hospitalized repeatedly in recent years. His political exit could be sudden and without warning. 

The succession of power could take a variety of forms, from smooth transition to violent face-offs among the contenders.

CONTENDERS FOR SUCCESSION

Mahmoud Al-Aloul is a 70-year-old Fatah Central Committee Vice Chairman with his own militia. Originally from Nablus, Israel deported him to Jordan in 1971 due to his terrorist activities. His current position provides Al-Aloul with an advantage in the leadership struggle. His son, Jihad, was killed by Israeli forces during the Second Intifada. He enjoys a clean, uncorrupted image as a leader. 

Majed Faraj, 56, a member of a family of refugees from Dehehishe refugee camp near Bethlehem, is known to be close to Abbas, is the head of the PA's General Intelligence Service (GIS), and is a prominent candidate. He is close to Abbas, and is seen as a figure who attracts international support. Faraj has recently been the target of an assassination plot in the West Bank, which seems to signal an escalation in the succession struggle. Faraj served six years in an Israeli prison during the First Intifada. He was appointed commander of the GIS in 2009. 

Dr. Mohammed Shtayah, 62, has been the subject of increased rumors lately regarding his growing chances of succeeding Abbas. An economist by training, Shtayah has not been involved in the power struggles taking place in the Palestinian arena but he benefits from cooperation with Al-Aloul. His appointment as prime minister was interpreted by some as an attempt by Abbas to promote him as a successor. 

Dr. Saeb Erekat, 64, the chief negotiator and secretary of the PLO Executive Committee, is a well known figure but he lacks sufficient popular support and has no military backing. He also suffers from poor health, and his chances of being a viable candidate appear low. 

Dr. Nasser Al-Qudwa, 67, was the PLO's representative to the UN, and a nephew of Arafat. Qudwa enjoys the support of Fatah Central Committee Member Tawfik Tirawi, who has popular support. Al-Qudwa has served as the prime minister of the PA. 

Jibril Rajoub, 66, is the Palestinian Football Association Chairman and the Chairman of the Olympic Committee. Rajoub, a veteran political leader, has support from an armed militia. He hails from the Rajoub clan of the Mount Hebron area and has the backing of the Palestinian Preventative Security (PPS), which he once commanded. 

Marwan Barghouti, 60, is serving five life sentences for the murder of Israelis in terrorist attacks, is an outlying candidate. Barghouti enjoys popularity among young Fatah members due to his incarceration in an Israeli prison, and some believe that his path out of jail involves succeeding Abbas. He is also popular in the Gaza Strip, due his history of armed struggle. 

Muhammad Dahlan, 58, originally from the Khan Younis refugee camp in Gaza, was ejected from Fatah's ranks by Abbas in 2011. Currently exiled in the UAE, he is relatively weak in the West Bank, but maintains a strong influence over Fatah loyalists in Gaza. His standing in the Palestinian arena has strengthened in recent years, and he has formed alliances with elements in Fatah and the PA. His record of being able to secure financial support for Gaza and the West Bank via Gulf states and on behalf of NGOs has boosted Dahlan's standing. Dahlan also receives support from Egypt and maintains close ties with the Al-Sisi government, which views him as a suitable potential successor to Abbas. 

When he departs, Abbas will leave behind a mixed legacy and we will swiftly learn how the transfer of power will occur; orderly transition or violence.

David Hacham served for 30 years in IDF intelligence, is a former Commander of Coordination of Govt. Activities in the Territories (COGAT) and was advisor for Arab Affairs to seven Israeli Ministers of Defense.