By Efraim Chalamish
The Abraham Accords, signed in September a year ago, have changed the Middle East forever. From hundreds of thousands of Israeli visitors to the UAE, to headlines about major potential cross-border transactions, to other Gulf countries that would like to join the new Middle East – new Arabian winds are blowing and are here to stay.
Yet, this moment of reflection is also a unique opportunity to look more carefully at how local, regional and global markets reacted and what needs to be done to remove the barriers that make progress more challenging on the ground.
The disproportionately high number of Israeli visitors to the UAE this past year, and the urge to capitalize quickly on the agreement, jeopardized the level of knowledge parties have. The cancelation of the potential investment by a UAE royal in Jerusalem’s leading soccer team due to his questionable finances and other similar cases have highlighted the trust deficit and the limited intelligence available to the respective entities. Better background checks, more structured and longer processes, and humble expectations will be needed to prevent similar fiascos.
The presence of international players can help to solve this issue by providing both Israelis and Gulf-based entities the necessary linkage and legitimacy. It has been reported that Japanese companies are interested in transactions that would create an energy corridor from Israel to the Gulf, and similar strategic moves are needed. The Abraham Fund, an international financial commitment to support cross-border infrastructure and energy security projects, should be saved despite recent calls to suspend it.
Gulf-based investors are often looking for the strategic value in every project. While financial returns are important, there is a need for a strategic alignment. The Delek-Mubadala deal in which Abu Dhabi-based Mubadala Petroleum purchased a $1 billion stake in the Tamar natural gas field is a case in point. The parties will be better off focusing on similar transactions in the next few years.
Cultural differences have also been identified. While Israelis have been looking for ‘quick wins’, such as venture investing with a short timeframe, Emirati and Bahraini individuals and companies have different time horizons, expecting relationships to develop and mature over time until they can generate the expected results. This gap has created significant frustrations on both sides and should be considered as part of the learning curve of the Abraham Accords and their consequences. While cultures cannot change overnight, governments on both sides should not create false expectations and should better prepare the parties for a more constructive dialogue.
In addition, we should not forget the framework of the Abraham Accords and the original text of the declaration. The accords are named after Abraham, the common patriarch of the three monotheistic religions, Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. The spiritual aspect was an important component of the journey to the accords and their current framework. Leaders from all relevant religions have met over the years as part of the track-II diplomacy efforts to bring the countries together. They all emphasized what values and practices those religions have in common.
Unfortunately, the rush to advance commercial transactions left the spiritual component behind. While certain projects and deals are short-lived, the religious aspect can give the long-term oxygen, legitimacy, and much-needed resilience to the agreements. Despite the ongoing political sensitivities in the region, religious leaders and programs should be accelerated.
The need to re-emphasize the religious component should be part of broader efforts to add bottom-up stories following the leaders’ framework. A recent report by the Atlantic Council and INSS think tanks and policy groups highlights the areas where civic engagement can be improved and developed. Religious dialogue, sports activities, and academic research programs are some of the key elements.
As the report shows, the progress in this area has been limited, and a lot can be done with local and international support. The incentives are concrete and beyond relationships maintenance. For instance, religious leaders from both sides can de-legitimize extremist groups in the region. The decline in enrollment in Israeli academic institutions in recent years can be addressed by a rise in participation of Gulf students. Israel’s leading athletes, such as chess players, can help the Emiratis improve their performance via joint camps, training programs, and yearly competitions. The United States can and should play an important role in this civic engagement by providing the necessary umbrella for the various projects.
As we are all eager to see the next chapter of the Abraham Accords and Jewish-Muslim relations in the Middle East more generally, only a nuanced and transparent approach can lead to the desired progress and regional growth.
Dr. Efraim Chalamish is an international economic law professor, advisor, and media commentator. He has been involved in international legal practice in New York, Paris and Israel, along with research in, and analysis of, cutting edge areas in public and private international economic law. Dr. Chalamish teaches at NYU Law School. Read full bio here.