BY Grisha Yakubovich
The latest round of conflict between Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Israel has produced a key conclusion: Hamas is the only ‘resistance’ element in the Palestinian arena that can impose an equation of its making on Israel.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad has been seeking to copy Hamas: It tried to mimic Hamas’s strategy of linking the West Bank to the Gazan arena and responding to events in the former by threatening and activating force from the latter.
PIJ has failed in this task. On the one hand, this failure strengthens Hamas, because it provides proof that the ruling faction in Gaza and it alone has the ability to challenge Israel through its terrorist army in the Strip.
There is, however, a flip side to this coin. Hamas is under pressure to join the fighting and prove its credentials as a ‘resistance’ movement. Hamas is in a bind.
Operationally, there is no doubt that the Israeli action against PIJ in Gaza has been beneficial for Hamas. Israel has been targeting PIJ, a competitor to Hamas that is seeking to position itself as the ‘resistance’ entity and steal some of Hamas’s prestige.
PIJ has been able to take a lead position in the northern West Bank, particularly in Jenin, and it is seeking to bolster its position in Gaza too. This troubles Hamas.
Hamas, though it will never admit it publicly, could not ask for a better result than the battering PIJ has received from Israel. The end result, Hamas can hope, will be a message to the Palestinian arena: All smaller armed groups should follow its lead. If they try to wage war on Israel by themselves they are doomed to failure.
This strengthens Hamas significantly. But PIJ has been trying to obtain a different result by prolonging the conflict (although at the time of writing reports of ceasefire negotiations are surfacing) in the hope that Hamas will be entrapped into joining the hostilities.
Israel has understood this sensitive situation very well, and this understanding has been reflected in its precise, cautious targeting of PIJ targets in the Gaza Strip.
It wouldn’t have taken much for Hamas’s calculation to change, and to alter its position to remain out of the fighting.
Still, Hamas is keenly aware that such a result runs contrary to its core interests. At its core, Hamas represents an ideological concept based on the idea of rejecting diplomacy with Israel, rejecting the path of the Palestinian Authority, and continuing with armed conflict.
Both Hamas and PIJ represent the thinking of Palestinian Muslims who reject the path chosen by their secular brethren, who have opted for understanding that they have to live with Israel.
Now, with PIJ weakened by Israel, Hamas can not only rest assured that it has an exclusive lead position in Gaza, it can also begin to fill a void in the northern West Bank, where Israel has arrested large numbers of PIJ operatives.
All of this can significantly help Hamas position itself in the race for the Palestinian leadership when the 87-year-old Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas finally steps down. Hamas becomes the most relevant movement, outshining Fatah, and certainly outshining PIJ, as the only one that can force Israel to change its policies towards Gaza.
Still, these interests do not guarantee that Hamas would not get involved, if not in this round of fighting, then potentially in a future one under similar circumstances. If Hamas did feel compelled to act, it can be expected to do so with massive action, in a surprising manner, hitting Israel as hard as it can with rockets, armed drones, sea attacks, and cyber-attacks.
If that does not happen, however, in the near term future, then PIJ will be on record as failing to replicate Hamas’s impressive achievements at the cognitive-national level.
The May 2021 conflict that Hamas fought with Israel stands as proof, as far as Hamas is concerned, that it is on the right path, leading as it did to increasing international and Israeli investment in Gaza’s economy, and a boost to Hamas’s status as ‘guardian of Jerusalem,’ the banner under which it sparked that confrontation last year.
PIJ’s pale imitation of this achievement saw the group fire rockets at Jerusalem on Sunday, at a time when Jews mounted the Temple Mount in the Old City to mark the holy Jewish day of Tisha B’Av. But unlike Hamas, that attack, like the remainder of PIJ’s attacks, are a shadow of Hamas’s capabilities.
Ultimately, PIJ’s attempt to be ‘the next Hamas’ failed, and the results of that failure will continue to be felt by Hamas, the PA, and Israel long after the next truce comes into effect.
At the same time, reality on the ground has demonstrated more than once that failure can form the basis for future success. Time will reveal if this will be the case.
Colonel Grisha Yakubovich serves as a policy and strategy consultant to various international NGO's. He concluded his military service in 2016 as the head of the civil department for the Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (C.O.G.A.T.). Read full bio here.