By Tomer Barak
Relations between the United States and Turkey in recent years have been characterized by deep tensions over a series of divisive issues at the heart of their bilateral relations. Moreover, the two countries have not managed to abate tensions even though they are NATO partners, with proper lines of communications between governments and militaries, and had good dialogue at the presidential level during the Trump administration.
Tensions between the two countries have increased in recent months. The latest meeting between Presidents Erdogan and Biden on October 31 on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Rome took place in a strained environment. Biden expressed concern about Turkey’s purchase of S-400 air defense batteries from Russia, and about the state of human rights within Turkey.
Statement from both countries, indicating willingness to establish a new “joint mechanism” to strengthen ties, did not disguise the growing gap between their leaderships.
Recently, Erdogan threatened to designate 10 foreign ambassadors – including the American ambassador – as “persona non grata”, following a joint statement by the ambassadors calling for the release of a jailed Turkish businessman.
The diplomatic crisis was quickly resolved and Erdogan backed down after most of the countries clarified that they did not mean to intervene in Turkey’s internal affairs. But the affair underlines just how fragile Turkish-Western relations are, and that Erdogan in not deterred from taking punitive steps even toward very powerful nations.
The ongoing fallout from Turkey’s decision to purchase the S-400 system from Moscow, and Turkey’s expulsion from the F-35 fighter jet project, continue to reverberate.
Turkey is currently attempting to retrieve funds that it transferred in the past to the F-35 project – a sum totaling, according to Erdogan, some 1.4 billion dollars. As an alternative, Turkey is willing to receive new U.S.-made F-16 jets, or to upgrade those already in its inventory.
Every transaction of this type would require approval from Congress where the current prevailing attitude to Turkey is highly critical of Ankara’s human rights record, its aggressive regional behavior, and its poor relations with Europe and the U.S.
Additional sore points – such as Turkey’s occupation of extensive areas of northern Syria, its aggressive conduct in Libya and the Mediterranean, illicit economic ties with Iran, support for Hamas, and the Biden administrations’ recognition of the Armenian genocide have all deepened the crisis in bilateral relations.
Washington’s policy to Turkey is binary. On the one hand, it still views Turkey as a significant partner and an important NATO member. As a result, the U.S. still attempts to safeguard continuous and positive working ties, as well as a dialogue between the leaderships. On the other hand, the understanding that Turkey is moving away from the West and is becoming a problem has sunk in. The U.S. therefore applies pressure and ‘sticks’ to prevent more negative conduct, with Congress appearing to be particularly hawkish in this regard. Until now, these efforts have led only to the most partial of successes.
Turkey, from its perspective, is skillfully maneuvering between the great powers. It is stretching the rope but not tearing it. It is exploiting opportunities to realize regional objectives, and to strengthen its strategic stability in northern Syria, Libya, Northern Cyprus, and Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey is also embarking on a military force build-up campaign using an array of defense product sources, while building its own domestic defense industry.
At the current point of time, it would be most beneficial to produce a stricter American approach towards Turkey, particularly in order to rein in its regional aggressive policies. In that regard, Turkey’s economic weakness at this time, and its severe currency crisis, could provide the U.S. and Europe with a needed and powerful leverage.
Lieutenant Colonel Tomer Barak concluded his military career in 2021 after 21 years of service in the Israeli Military Intelligence and in the Strategic Planning Division. Read full bio here.