By Danielle Roth-Avneri
Naftali Bennett, head of the Yamina Party, and Yesh Atid party chief Yair Lapid have – bar a last-minute failure – managed to do the unbelievable and put together a new governing coalition that ousts Benjamin Netanyahu from power after 12 years.
How were they able to do this? In the past few months, Bennett appeared to zig-zag no less than three times. He said he would set up a coalition government with the ‘bloc for change’ made up of parties determined to see Benjamin Netanyahu banished to the opposition. Then, during May’s Gaza conflict, he abandoned those efforts telling confidantes that a government leaning on Ra’am was off the table due to clashes in Israel between Jews and Arabs, – only to resume negotiations as the ceasefire took hold, leading to the emergence of the eight-party coalition.
But there is likely more to this story than meets the eye. When Bennett announced that he was giving up on the change coalition during the Gaza hostilities, he put on a show deserving of an Oscar for Best Actor. He and Lapid continued negotiations throughout the entire time, enjoying the quiet that was generated by the impression that their efforts to set up a coalition had ended.
By putting on this show, Bennett and Lapid were able to mislead the entire country.
Bennett has much invested in this coalition. If the coalition fails and Israel goes to a fifth elections in two years Yamina will most likely be erased from the political map. His choices were simple: Safeguard his right-wing ideology and remain outside of the political system, or become prime minister.
Bennet’s gamble is also simple: If he is perceived as a good prime minister, his supporters will forget his own violations of his election pledges.
During the campaign, Bennett sat in a television studio and announced categorically that he will not enter into a coalition with Lapid. And yet, here we are, with a power-sharing Lapid – Bennett coalition.
Whatever one may think of the way the coalition came into being ,the fact that Lapid was able to call the outgoing president, Reuven Rivlin, last Thursday (while the president was attending a soccer game) and announce that he was able to form a government is a powerful sign that change is on the way.
To witness someone able to unseat Netanyahu after 12 years in power is a ‘big bang’ moment in Israeli politics, which has shaken up the entire system and created a new dynamic.
The fact of the matter is that the alternative of a fifth elections is untenable for the State of Israel. The parties entering the new coalition understood that they have to find a way to get along. Their ability to reach dramatic compromises is an achievement on their part, in light of their vastly contrasting ideologies.
The common denominator underlying the entire coalition is the drive to eject Netanyahu from power. The coalition has no other clear objectives, but that goal alone was enough to bring an Arab Islamist party together with a right-wing national religious party, as well as parties located throughout the political spectrum.
And so, Israel reaches the unprecedented situation in which the head of a party with just six Knesset seats becomes prime minister.
On the other side of the political divide, rumors and reports have been swirling about last-ditch efforts to torpedo the new coalition. One unconfirmed report is that the Likud will hold snap primaries – but it is not at all clear how that would interfere with the emergence of the new coalition.
The change coalition, meanwhile, has reached agreements on many core issues. Tens of billions of shekels in public funds will go to the Arab sector in line with the demands of Ra’am party leader Mansour Abbas.
Legislation that holds that a prime minister who has been in power for eight years will need a four-year cooling off period is being prepared, in what appears to be personal legislation designed to deny Netanyahu access to a new run for office any time soon.
These are key clauses in the coalition agreement.
There are additional, controversial, clauses, such as expanding the Norwegian law, which states that ministers can quit the Knesset (as MKs while retaining their positions as ministers), enabling the nest person on their party list to enter parliament as an MK. Lapid publicly came out against this set up last year, only for him to approve it in this coalition.
The current expanded Norwegian Law is set to cost the taxpayer 110 million shekels.
This coalition will be an inflated government made up of no fewer than 28 ministers and six deputy ministers. The Norwegian law will allow all coalition parties to Bring a significant number of party members into parliament as MKs.
At the time of writing, even though the outcome of a new government looks highly likely, last-minute changes can still occur, and the coalition has yet to be sworn in. Despite the intense pressure currently on the Yamina party, failure to swear in the government would be highly surprising, and a new chapter in Israeli politics looks like it is about to begin.
Danielle Roth-Avneri is a journalist and reporter on political matters, as well as an editor for the Israel Hayom/Israel Todaynewspaper, the most widely circulated publication in Israel. Read full bio here.