By Danielle Roth-Avneri
As far as Israeli voters are concerned, national elections are what shapes Israel’s political system, but for Israel’s politicians, they only mark the halfway point.
The reason for this is deeply tied to the structure and nature of Israel’s political system. To form a government, a party chairperson must be able to take to Israel’s President the recommendation of at least 61 Members of Knesset. But with multiple parties in the arena, that is no simple matter.
All experienced political players in Israel know that only when the exit polls come through, usually at 10 p.m. on election day, can the real calculations begin.
In the upcoming November 1 elections, the fifth in three-and-a-half years, the two main blocs are, once again, divided into the “Bibi” and “Just not Bibi” camps. This is essentially the only political game in town.
It is remarkable to take stock of how long Israel’s political system has been gridlocked. Teenagers who were aged 15-and-a-half when the first of those five elections marking the beginning of the current cycle of political paralysis was held are now eligible to vote. Many things have changed, but one constant remains: The presence of Opposition Chairman and Likud head Benjamin Netanyahu.
In one corner is an entire political camp determined to boycott him. It refuses to accept him in any manner, claiming it would be impossible to do so since he is on trial on corruption charges. This camp repeatedly calls for Netanyahu’s resignation. Netanyahu however refuses to succumb to these calls and has continued to dominate the political scene while at the same time mounting a legal defense in court. The current threshold for enabling a party to enter the Knesset is four seats. Parties that fail to reach the threshold remain outside of parliament and votes cast for them are wasted.
This is especially a concern for the anti-Netanyahu camp, which features a number of parties on the verge of the threshold. Among them are Labor and Meretz, which, based on the final polls, are likely to gain four to five seats each.
The Arab Joint List split up in this election season, and its three component parties are each fighting to get over the line. The elections may, in the end, be decided by the Arab-Israeli sector, where wasted votes could end up boosting the Netanyahu camp if one of the parties currently polling four seats fail to get past the threshold.
The Arab Israeli street is well known for punishing its leaders when they split up into smaller parties. Voting percentages are consistently higher when the Arab parties join forces to run under a separate list.
As a result, Prime Minister Yair Lapid has made an effort to encourage Arab-Israelis to go out and vote.
Lapid cannot become the next prime minister if one of the Arab parties fails to get into the Knesset. However, if Netanyahu also fails to gain the 61 votes he needs to form a government, Lapid will stay on as prime minister of a transitional government. Another spell as premier would boost his image, which is already strengthened by the fact that he has been in charge of military campaigns, international affairs, and the maritime border agreement with Lebanon – an agreement that many Israelis, including Netanyahu, regard as scandalous, but which is well regarded by others.
The Netanyahu camp has been strengthened, meanwhile, by the ability of right-wing religious nationalist politicians Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir to unite into a joint Religious Zionist list.
Within this bloc, the Likud’s power has been eroded by the rise of Ben Gvir, who, according to polls, has convinced many young voters, including from Likud, to give him their ballot. If the polling proves to be correct, the Religious Zionist list will demand many ministries when it enters the government.
Meanwhile, Ayelet Shaked, the former number two in Yamina, a highly capable political player who now leads her own party, the Jewish Home, is running despite polls showing that she will not get past the threshold.
Netanyahu has attempted to remove her from the race to ensure that the two seats she is worth will go to him – so far with no success.
In the unlikely event that Shaked does get past the threshold, Netanyahu will find himself completely dependent on her to form a government, due to the expected tight results between the two political blocs.
If neither camp is able to form a government, a third option exists – namely that Benny Gantz, chairman of the National Unity party, does so. Gantz, a former partner of Lapid turned competitor-rival, believes he could get the needed 61 votes, though it is difficult to see how with the current math.
One option is that Gantz becomes prime minister with Likud entering a rotation government under his lead with Gantz receiving the first rotation and Netanyahu the second.
Another is that Gantz is able to somehow reel in the ultra-Orthodox parties to his government, though this looks improbable.
In the past several days, the television political campaigns have begun, and the election season has awoken from its slumber after the High Holidays.
The mudslinging is in full throttle, as it has been in past elections. Those who deliver the most devastating knockouts have the best chance of winning. Netanyahu, Lapid, Gantz, Shaked, and others will all be in the ring, slugging it out.
At the end of the day, however, voting patterns are not likely to change much from the past round of elections. It is not possible to change the people. With every election costing over a billion shekels and wasting so much time, Israel’s politicians are beginning to appear ridiculous.
Israeli voters are asking how they can entrust them to lead, when they cannot get along with one another.
Danielle Roth-Avneri is a political commentator & panelist on Morning World and various current affairs news programs on television. She is a former Knesset reporter, news editor and columnist for the newspaper Israel Hayom. Read full bio here.