BY Noam Tibon
In recent months, Hezbollah has made repeated attempts to avenge the death of one of its operatives in a reported Israeli air strike in Syria in July. While the Lebanese terror organization hasn't given up on its stated goal of killing an Israeli soldier in response, the organization currently faces multiple challenges that are significantly more pressing.
The restraining factors acting against Hezbollah at this time are likely dissuading it from taking action that could lead to war with Israel, though the risk of an unintended conflict certainly remains.
The Lebanese state, which hosts Hezbollah, faces several crises, each of which has an impact on the organization: The coronavirus pandemic, and a severe economic meltdown are two of the most impactful of the current challenges.
In addition, the massive blast in the Beirut port in August killed more than 200 people in 2020 and left widespread devastation in the Lebanese capital.
Iran, Hezbollah's state sponsor, faces its own grave economic crisis, and the spiraling coronavirus outbreak in the Islamic Republic is fomenting widespread anger against the Ayatollahs.
Meanwhile, for the first time in years, extraordinary negotiations took place between the Israeli and Lebanese governments over maritime borders. These talks, though stalled, occurred in spite of Hezbollah, and have been driven by Lebanon's dire economic straits, which led Beirut to seek natural gas revenue in the Mediterranean. Lebanon's willingness to negotiate represents a change to the status quo.
Iran, meanwhile, remains on high alert as the Biden administration settles into Washington DC. Though free from the concern that President Trump might have taken drastic action against it before he left office, the Biden Administration's policy toward Iran remains unclear. It is as yet unknown when the new president will return to the nuclear agreement, and under which conditions. As a result of these uncertainties, Iran must avoid any unforced errors, and the same holds true for its proxy, Hezbollah.
Nevertheless, it is important to recall that Hezbollah is continuing with many of its dangerous activities. First among these is its accumulation of firepower. Israel is engaged in a daily battle with Hezbollah, which seeks to turn a significant portion of its massive arsenal of rockets and missiles into accurate projectiles that pose a far greater threat.
Israel's campaign of attacks in Syria is designed to prevent precision guided missiles from reaching Hezbollah. It is also designed to prevent Iranian-backed militias from entrenching themselves in Syria, and building a second front against Israel in the Syrian Golan Heights.
Last November’s IDF discovery of explosive devices placed on the Israeli side of the Golan Heights border was clear evidence of the same effort by the Iranian axis to create a second anti-Israel northern front in Syria. Hezbollah is certainly involved in that attempt, even if its involvement takes a low profile.
With so many factors at play, Hezbollah's "revenge" against Israel in response to the July incident appears likely to be very minor, and pursuit of this objective is not at the top of the organization's priority list.
There have been three attempts since the summer to exact a price from Israel - at Mount Dov, on the Golan Heights, and on the Lebanese border. All three have failed, but Hezbollah continues to search for an IDF weak point, albeit as a low priority.
The targeted killing of the Iranian Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. drone strike dealt a further blow to Hezbollah's effectiveness.
Despite all of the above, it is also important not to underplay the risk of unintended war. In 2006, when it launched a cross-border kidnapping raid, Hezbollah did not intend to launch the Second Lebanon War, and the organization's secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah would later state as much.
The high tension level on the Israeli - Lebanese border means that localized incidents have the potential to rapidly snowball into major events.
Israel therefore must remain on high alert, and closely monitor developments on the ground. While Hezbollah remains under multiple restraints, it could still seek to act, and it may choose a location that is far from local in order to do so, as it has done in the past.
The 2012 Burgas bus bombing, which killed five Israeli tourists and their Bulgarian driver, is one such example.
The Israeli defense establishment will be closely monitoring the situation, and can be expected to continue to gather intelligence while remaining on the highest alert. A full blown conflict would be costly to Hezbollah and very costly to Lebanon.
Major General Noam Tibon spent his military career specializing in counter terrorism and homeland security. His command positions include service as Commander of the 202nd Battalion of the Paratroopers Brigade, Deputy Commander of the Paratroopers Brigade, Commander of the Etzion Regional Brigade, Commander of the Judea Regional Brigade, Commander of the “Nahal” Brigade, Head of the Personnel Division of the IDF Ground Forces, Chief of the Infantry and Paratroopers Corps, Commander of the Judea and Samaria Division and Commander of the Command and Staff College, IDF.