By Peter Fishkind
On Tuesday, January 12th the MirYam Institute hosted Israel’s former Ambassador to the United States, Michael Oren, for a discussion, available on MirYam’s podcast channel focused on what Joe Biden’s election will mean for Israel. The first half of the program was a Q & A with Benjamin Anthony and the remainder was filled with questions from members of the MirYam Institute community of adjuncts. The conversation with the Ambassador also focused on recent news events including the riot at the U.S. Capitol.
In discussing Joe Biden, Ambassador Oren described him as a friend of Israel, spoke fondly of his character, and noted that he took specific stances during the Democratic Presidential Primary on issues like U.S. financial aid to Israel to positively distinguish himself from certain other competitors in the race. However, he expressed concern over the administration’s expected Iran policy. In particular, despite speaking highly of the capacity of a number of Biden’s announced foreign policy team and their support of Israel, he noted that the bulk of them played significant roles in crafting the JCPOA. Despite those concerns, the Ambassador stated his hope that the administration will be guided by facts and analysis rather than preconceived ideological goals, that the administration will seek to utilize leverage afforded to it by the sanctions currently in place, and that the administration will avoid showing daylight with Israel whenever possible.
Certain recent developments, including the testimony of Joe Biden’s nominee for Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, before the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, have reinforced the conclusions of the Ambassador. Blinken was generally received warmly by the Committee, testifying that the U.S. Embassy would remain in Jerusalem, complementing the successes of the Trump Administration in facilitating the development of Israeli-Arab relations via the Abraham Accords while pledging to work to increase such efforts. However, as expected, Blinken stated that it would be the Biden administration’s intention to re-enter the JCPOA if Iran was to come into compliance with its terms. As the Ambassador noted, and I agree, the Agreement contains fatal flaws such that a re-entry will cause significant friction in the U.S.-Israel relationship. However, Blinken noted that any such step is a “long way” off and also addressed a critical concern of Oren’s, promising that Israel and other regional allies as well as Congress would be consulted before any U.S. action. If such steps are taken and sound advice is heeded, it will only improve the odds that a policy is best designed to achieve the joint aim of the U.S. and Israel, to prevent Iran from developing the capacity to build a deliverable nuclear weapon.
Additionally, the Ambassador stated that he does not expect Israeli-Palestinian negotiations to be a particular priority of the Biden administration. Such a stance accords with the U.S. interest, where U.S. meddling has often backfired in its aim of improving Israeli-Palestinian relations. Rather, the Ambassador predicted that a greater focus will be placed on building on the successes of the Abraham Accords, noting Biden’s praise of the agreements during the campaign. As noted, this was reiterated as an intention of Biden’s in the Blinken testimony.
In discussing the riot at the Capitol, the Ambassador contextualized the events specific to that day within a longer framework of America’s withdrawal from the world. The Ambassador noted that dating back to his time of service as Israel’s Ambassador during President Obama’s tenure through President Trump’s term in office that political leaders in both parties as well as American voters were far more focused on domestic concerns than ones abroad. In the Ambassador's view, the riot was indicative of these troubles and would demand that the U.S. continue its focus on policing itself and strengthening its own democracy rather than foreign affairs. In no uncertain terms, the Ambassador stated that this development will be bad for Israel and the free world, as an American withdrawal will create vacuums to be filled with bad actors.
This analysis is likely correct as both America’s political divisions and the massive costs imposed by the pandemic will require the Biden administration to focus on domestic issues. However, there is certainly a contrarian view to take here. One could suggest that Americans may respond to the pandemic with an increased focus on global affairs. In fact, its need is apparent, as the virus was birthed in China and spread, in part, because no external actor was on the ground to assess the threat posed by the virus. Similarly, there may be an opportunity to build a political consensus on how the U.S. can most effectively compete with China’s growing economic power and influence abroad.
Unfortunately, while the factors to make such a reinvigoration of America’s broader strategy of engagement with the world are present, it is most likely that other domestic challenges will require too great a focus for any administration to meet them fully in the near term. As a consequence, as the Ambassador noted, Israel will need to continue to diversify its relationships rather than rely on its alliance with the U.S. alone.
Peter Fishkind is currently an associate in the Litigation Department at Proskauer Rose LLP in New York. He lives in Great Neck, New York and is a Member of the Nassau County Democratic Party Committee.