By Danielle Roth-Avneri
Earlier this month, the former coalition chairwoman MK Idit Silman (Yamina) dropped a bombshell. Shortly before 7 a.m. on April 6, Silman publicized a resignation letter she sent to Prime Minister Naftali Bennett -- who is chairman of Yamina -- announcing her departure from the coalition.
The immediate significance of Silman’s move is that the government’s narrow advantage over the opposition – an advantage of a single vote – is now gone, and the opposition and coalition are at a tie.
In Israeli politics, a tie means that in all likelihood, the days of this government are numbered.
The current government, which has been in power for nine months, saw Yamina become the ruling party with just six Knesset seats. As Bennett worked to achieve world peace, mediating between Russia and Ukraine, when it came to home turf he fell asleep at the wheel and his political structure simply fell apart.
Silman is a first-time Member of Knesset, serving her first term. She is from a religious-Zionist background and it took some work to convince her to enter the unity government made up of right-wing, centrist, left-wing, and Arab parties that have no common ideology.
Silman exhibited strong political-business abilities by securing the senior position of coalition chairwoman so early in her career.
One of the central features of her role is to act as the glue that binds the parties of the coalition, maintaining its unity. This is what Silman had engaged herself with since the coalition was formed.
Far from being an anonymous backbencher, she was the face of the coalition, playing a central role in maintaining the stability of the government. And then, one morning, she turned around and said she couldn’t go on anymore.
To understand why we need to look at things from Silman’s perspective. From its outset, the government was built out of incompatible puzzle pieces that seemed almost impossible to piece together.
Yet to serve the greater goal of pushing aside former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the parties managed to make it work, and they deserve credit for that achievement. Still, it was only a matter of time until the glue came unstuck, and the coalition started to crumble.
Bennett attempted to explain away Silman’s shock resignation by avoiding personal criticisms of her, leaving an unlikely path open for her to return. He pointed out that she was under constant verbal attack and harassment by Netanyahu’s supporters, as well as more militant right-wing political forces like Knesset Member Bezalel Smotrich, head of the Religious Zionist party.
This is true. Silman went through nine difficult months, experiencing repeat accusations that she is a traitor, and even her children were harassed. Yet this is all part and parcel of the political game, and the ability to stand up to such pressures should be in-built among all those who play it.
Bennett played down the significance of her resignation by arguing that it was all down to external pressure on Silman and her husband.
Attention is now on Bennett’s closest partner, Interior Minister and Yamina MK Ayelet Shaked. Shaked is an example of another right-wing politician who entered this government with great reluctance, and who has navigated a complex political situation ever since.
Now, Shaked must choose: Will she maintain allegiance to her political partner and remain with him until the government collapses, or should she dismantle the government herself and become the 61st vote in favor of the opposition, securing her legacy among the right-wing bloc?
Will she choose loyalty to Bennett, or opt for hero status on the right?
Shaked brought with her to the government Yamina’s Nir Orbach, who is chairman of the Knesset Committee, and Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office, Yamina’s Abir Kara.
The big question going forward is whether these three will move as a single unit. If they do, they would deal a fatal blow to Bennett’s position. As a result, the prime minister is intensively attempting to clarify Shaked’s goals. Ultimately, she holds the government’s fate in her hands.
As such, the Israeli political system has reached a rather absurd situation in which a prime minister who heads a party with six Knesset seats does not even control all of the occupants of those six seats.
Currently, the Knesset is in recess, and Silman’s decision will not have any immediate influence in the coming weeks.
On May 8, the Knesset will return from recess, and then it will find itself in a situation in which it cannot pass significant laws. That puts the entire country into paralysis.
The Right will seek to exploit the opportunity of a paralyzed government by searching for more defectors.
The coalition, for its part, understands that its days are numbered, and it is trying to do everything it can to survive, including appeasing the Joint Arab List, whose chairman, MK Ayman Odeh, called on Arab-Israeli members of the security forces to quit their position, a call that could constitute incitement.
The government could not wholeheartedly condemn his comments because it is fearful that may push him away. In light of the fact that Odeh should not be in the Knesset in the first place, this is a surreal development, but one that has been legitimized through the current political situation.
Despite all of the above, surprises can always occur in Israeli politics. Israel experienced four election campaigns in the past two years, and it saw prime ministers and a defense minister violate election promises to obtain power and remain there.
We must therefore remain open to the option of further surprises, and to know that another, currently unforeseen scenario, could always be around the corner.
The decision by Ra’am (United Arab List) to freeze its membership in the current coalition shows that the party can smell elections, and it is trying to position itself as a party that could break the coalition. Ra’am is the first Arab party to enter into a coalition and the government depends on it and thus has to deal with it cautiously. Nevertheless, the significance of the freeze is, at the moment, essentially spin, since the Knesset is in recess until May 8, and the move, therefore, has no significance beyond sending a defiant message to the government.
Danielle Roth-Avneri is an Israeli political commentator. She appears on the This Morning Program on Channel 13 Reshet TV. She is the former parliamentary correspondent of Israel Hayom, the most widely read newspaper in Israel. Read full bio here.