By Amit Kumar
The biggest cooperative military drill between the United States and Israel, comprising 142 aircraft, dozens of ships, and nuclear bombs, began on January 23. Preparation for this real fire drill, labelled "Juniper Oak" began after Benjamin Netanyahu reclaimed the premiership a few months ago. The drill’s timing is crucial since it coincides with a complex geopolitical dilemma including internal unrest in Iran, the reviving of the US-Iran nuclear deal, Russian aggression, and Chinese meddling in the Middle East.
Iran would be the nation most impacted by Juniper Oak. Iran is concentrating on strengthening its ties with China and Russia after anticipating such a military exercise. Iranian membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the signing of a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement with China, President Ebrahim Raisi's most recent visit to China, and Iran's provision of Kamikaze drones to Russia are all indicators of how desperately Iran is attempting to assemble a network of allies to oppose Israel. The US and Israel's regional plan calls for developing a bigger, better security infrastructure incorporating regional powers like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in light of the US pulling out a significant portion of its troops from the Middle East. Due to the shifting sands in the Middle East and the constant emergence of new threats, “Juniper Oak Plus” will soon become a reality.
The U.S.-Iran relationship has been tense for a long time. Both the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 and the drone attack that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 were key events that contributed to the deterioration of relations between the two nations. Iran's economy suffered as a result of the reinstatement of U.S. sanctions. Iran responded by continuing its nuclear program and disregarding the JCPOA's provisions. Since that time, both sides have taken a number of reciprocal actions that have only damaged their relationship.
Israel, on the other hand, has always opposed Iran's political system and nuclear development. Hamas and Hezbollah are prominent Islamic extremist organizations that get ideological, financial, and lethal aid from the Iranian government. These groups are dedicated to waging jihad against Israel. Political leadership has a determination to "Vanish the government occupying Jerusalem from pages of history," which may involve developing a nuclear weapon.
The United States has a well-planned strategy to set the groundwork for creating a strong security infrastructure in the midst of this instability. A series of joint normalization statements, first between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, with effect as of September 15, 2020, were produced as a result of the Abraham Accords, which was carefully mapped out to soften ties among Arab nations with Israel. I2U2 - grouping of India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the U.S. - was created to skillfully and intricately tie Israel with the Arab world in light of the success of the above. Building a solid foundation is essential if future military cooperation between Arab countries and Israel is to take the form of anything like "Juniper Oak Plus." This military drill is a precursor to a mega security infrastructure the U.S. plans to erect to counter the threat posed by Iran and other terrorist organizations.
The majority of Arab countries disagree with Iran's adherence to Islamic principles. Major Arab nations including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain do not approve of its interpretation of Islam, aspirations to rule the Islamic world, and oil export policies.
The oil trade and Islamic domination have caused a conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Previous peace negotiations between these two nations, mediated by Iraq, failed to resolve the current situation. Recent examples of hostilities between these two nations include the attack on an oil ship in the Gulf of Oman in 2018 and the raid on the Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia’s eastern province in 2019. The United States released intelligence in October 2022 about an imminent Iranian strike that threatened the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Iraq, and Israel. According to the information, Iran planned an airstrike against Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the Persian Gulf.
As a result, Iran's unpredictable political and military actions under the control of a radical political militia puts Arab countries at risk. This also has an impact on their sovereignty. Arab countries will be able to stand strong in the Middle East, achieve lasting peace & economic progress, and address this problem by forging a military alliance with Israel and the U.S.
Engaging Saudi Arabia and the UAE in military drills may strengthen mutual confidence and cooperation among regional allies, promote interoperability and coordination, and strengthen collective defense capabilities. Both nations are significant participants in regional security and have recently upgraded their armed forces. Expanding “Juniper Oak” to “Juniper Oak Plus” by including Saudi Arabia and the UAE would result in robust security infrastructure.
By conducting such military drills, the U.S. hopes to earn the trust of other regional powers and persuade them to collaborate with it in developing a mega security infrastructure that would enable it to lead the global campaign against Islamic terrorism. With Israel establishing friendly ties with Arab nations, the U.S. mediation has fostered a peaceful environment in the Middle East. This is a crucial step in addressing challenges like Iran's nuclear ambitions, the expansionist aspect of Iranian political philosophy, the sponsorship of terrorism through the usage of oil resources, and the expansion of Russia and China in Gulf states.
The participation of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel in the drill would signify a closer alignment between the nations and could result in more military cooperation. As a result, regional security issues may be approached more systematically, especially when it comes to containing Iran's influence. The U.S., Israel, UAE, and Saudi Arabia might cooperate militarily through participation in the Juniper Oak exercise, which could improve their defense skills and capacity to address regional threats.
Amit Kumar is a doctoral student at BITS PILANI in India. His primary study focus is China's relationship with Islam. Amit has worked as a Political Researcher for the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha, India's National Political Party's youth wing. Read full bio here.