Amit Kumar

Ukraine-Russia War: An imminent spillover in the Middle East

By Amit Kumar

The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine is exacerbating international tensions. Apart from the critical impact the conflict has on the two engaged nations, it is also leading to wider ramifications for international security and stability, notably in the Middle East. It poses a threat to the fragile peace in the region in numerous ways including its ability to intensify current tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel, and the potential to spark new conflicts by upsetting the international power equilibrium that forces uninvolved nations to become a part of these regional tensions. Keeping these emerging situations in the backdrop, this article investigates how the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is affecting regional geopolitics in the Middle East, and how even neutral states are being forced to take sides - a development that may eventually cause ’the proxy wars between Israel and Iran to escalate into a full-fledged showdown in the near future.

First, the Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts regional stability by aggravating already-existing hostilities. The Syrian civil war, the dispute between Israel and Palestine, and the continuous confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia are just a few of the current crises in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Yemen also remain at odds, while Israel is still in conflict with some Arab nations. Lately, Qatar was also subjected to a blockade by its neighbors because of its support for Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. This situation is further complicated by the fact that non-state groups such as ISIS and Hamas operate with full impunity in the region.

Nonetheless, in August 2022, Israel successfully neutralized threats in drone strikes during Operation Breaking Dawn. One of these strikes even killed a senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad senior commander, Taysheer Jabari. Just recently, Israel was also successful in killing several militants from the Lions’ Den and Hamas in Jenin. Based on these events, it can be deduced that the onus to keep the region’s dreadful threats in check lies on Israel. Therefore, it will be in the positive interest of the region if Israel continues to remain committed to upholding the security and stability of the Middle East rather than diverting its strategic resources toward the Ukraine-Russia war.

The situation in the Middle East is extremely precarious and prone to continuing and recurrent confrontations. The Russia-Ukraine war could potentially worsen the conflicts by providing new opportunities for intervention to the outside powers. For instance, the Syrian government’s military and manpower support to Russia, and Syria's engagement in the Ukraine crisis may prompt more Russian action in the Syrian conflict to favor Assad. Similarly, Ukraine shares good relations with several Middle Eastern governments like Israel, Kuwait and Turkey. In case the conflict escalates, the Middle Eastern countries will come under pressure to support Ukraine under US diplomatic pressure, which may result in a division into two camps, albeit not necessarily explicitly.  

Secondly, even if Russia and Israel's relationship can be said to be realpolitik, they have never really seen eye to eye on Iran. However, the evolving equation between Russia, Israel, and Iran due to the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war could hamper Israel's security. In recent years, Iran and Russia have deepened their strategic partnership. Any perception of Israel's allegiance to Ukraine might be considered a threat to Russia's geopolitical objectives. If Israel were to aid Ukraine militarily, Russia would interpret this as a provocative act and may react by enhancing Iran's military-industrial complex, disregarding Israel’s concerns. Meanwhile, from Israel's perspective, every drone and ballistic missile that Russia purchases from Iran, and every economic deal struck between them, provides Tehran with more cash that can be funneled to its proxies around Israel's sovereign territory.  Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Iran has seen Israel as its main regional adversary, and Russia may incite Tehran to engage in a limited fashion with Israel and thus keep its involvement limited to regional affairs. Also, if the tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, there is a chance it would also intensify the arms race, further proxy conflicts, and potentially even lead to a direct military confrontation between the two countries. Israeli establishment would do well to think twice before engaging in a European war beyond providing humanitarian aid. Anything beyond humanitarian aid might worsen relations between Israel and Russia.

Lastly, the Russia-Ukraine conflict also generates fresh prospective disputes. For instance, it may entice other nations with strong links to Russia or Ukraine to support them covertly or overtly by any means. This side-picking act would eventually prolong the ongoing war while simultaneously generating new wounds and refreshing the old ones in the Middle East. This might apply to  Israel, Iran, Syria, and Lebanon, and other countries.  Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has said that he would consider sending arms to Ukraine, and two weeks later, Israeli lawmakers were found to be encouraging him to do that. Syria has already broken diplomatic ties with Ukraine. Beirut and Jordan enjoy relatively close ties with Moscow. As many reports suggest, Lebanon-based Palestinians are recruited by Russia and deployed to the frontlines in Ukraine.

Other than geographic proximity, diplomatic mistrust, and a persistent threat to sovereign security, the Middle East is also fraught with dictators and strongmen making this region more susceptible to intensifying internal proxy conflicts among themselves based on the sides they might take in the Ukraine-Russia war. As per the western media, staying neutral in this war equates with taking Russia’s side. While it appears that the middle eastern nations have delicately handled the Ukraine-Russia war by maintaining their strategic autonomy, the truth seems to be different. Multiple fissures have surfaced leading to renewed divisions between these nations that make the situation ripe for conflicts and instability.

In conclusion, the Ukraine-Russia war is a Western war or European War and should be left there. The first step toward the Middle East being embroiled in another region's war is Iran's strategic cooperation with Russia. The second step involves Israel building consensus in the Knesset for providing military backing to Ukraine, opening the door for other countries to follow suit and escalating regional proxy wars. In order to lessen the conflict's potential effects on the Middle East, it is crucial that Middle Eastern countries refrain from any sort of military or moral engagement with Ukraine or Russia.

Acknowledgements

I gratefully acknowledge Dale Aluf, Director of Research & Strategy at SIGNAL, Sino-Israel Global Network & Academic Leadership, and Aayushi Malhotra for investing the time and energy necessary to review the manuscript, providing insightful comments and suggestions, and editing the paper. These efforts enabled me to raise the quality of the manuscript.

Amit Kumar is a doctoral student at the Birla Institute of Technology and Science, in Pilani, India. His area of specialization is China Studies. Amit has worked as a Political Researcher for the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha, India's National Political Party's youth wing. Read full bio here.

Juniper Oak Plus: A Mega Security Infrastructure in the Middle East

By Amit Kumar

The biggest cooperative military drill between the United States and Israel, comprising 142 aircraft, dozens of ships, and nuclear bombs, began on January 23. Preparation for this real fire drill, labelled "Juniper Oak" began after Benjamin Netanyahu reclaimed the premiership a few months ago. The drill’s timing is crucial since it coincides with a complex geopolitical dilemma including internal unrest in Iran, the reviving of the US-Iran nuclear deal, Russian aggression, and Chinese meddling in the Middle East.

Iran would be the nation most impacted by Juniper Oak. Iran is concentrating on strengthening its ties with China and Russia after anticipating such a military exercise. Iranian membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the signing of a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement with China, President Ebrahim Raisi's most recent visit to China, and Iran's provision of Kamikaze drones to Russia are all indicators of how desperately Iran is attempting to assemble a network of allies to oppose Israel. The US and Israel's regional plan calls for developing a bigger, better security infrastructure incorporating regional powers like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in light of the US pulling out a significant portion of its troops from the Middle East. Due to the shifting sands in the Middle East and the constant emergence of new threats, “Juniper Oak Plus” will soon become a reality.

The U.S.-Iran relationship has been tense for a long time. Both the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 and the drone attack that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 were key events that contributed to the deterioration of relations between the two nations. Iran's economy suffered as a result of the reinstatement of U.S. sanctions. Iran responded by continuing its nuclear program and disregarding the JCPOA's provisions. Since that time, both sides have taken a number of reciprocal actions that have only damaged their relationship.

Israel, on the other hand, has always opposed Iran's political system and nuclear development. Hamas and Hezbollah are prominent Islamic extremist organizations that get ideological, financial, and lethal aid from the Iranian government. These groups are dedicated to waging jihad against Israel. Political leadership has a determination to "Vanish the government occupying Jerusalem from pages of history," which may involve developing a nuclear weapon.

The United States has a well-planned strategy to set the groundwork for creating a strong security infrastructure in the midst of this instability. A series of joint normalization statements, first between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, with effect as of September 15, 2020, were produced as a result of the Abraham Accords, which was carefully mapped out to soften ties among Arab nations with Israel. I2U2 -  grouping of India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the U.S. - was created to skillfully and intricately tie Israel with the Arab world in light of the success of the above. Building a solid foundation is essential if future military cooperation between Arab countries and Israel is to take the form of anything like "Juniper Oak Plus." This military drill is a precursor to a mega security infrastructure the U.S. plans to erect to counter the threat posed by Iran and other terrorist organizations.

The majority of Arab countries disagree with Iran's adherence to Islamic principles. Major Arab nations including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain do not approve of its interpretation of Islam, aspirations to rule the Islamic world, and oil export policies.

The oil trade and Islamic domination have caused a conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Previous peace negotiations between these two nations, mediated by Iraq, failed to resolve the current situation. Recent examples of hostilities between these two nations include the attack on an oil ship in the Gulf of Oman in 2018 and the raid on the Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia’s  eastern province in 2019. The United States released intelligence in October 2022 about an imminent Iranian strike that threatened the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Iraq, and Israel. According to the information, Iran planned an airstrike against Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the Persian Gulf.

As a result, Iran's unpredictable political and military actions under the control of a radical political militia puts Arab countries at risk. This also has an impact on their sovereignty. Arab countries will be able to stand strong in the Middle East, achieve lasting peace & economic progress, and address this problem by forging a military alliance with Israel and the U.S.

Engaging Saudi Arabia and the UAE in military drills may strengthen mutual confidence and cooperation among regional allies, promote interoperability and coordination, and strengthen collective defense capabilities. Both nations are significant participants in regional security and have recently upgraded their armed forces. Expanding “Juniper Oak” to “Juniper Oak Plus” by including Saudi Arabia and the UAE would result in robust security infrastructure.

By conducting such military drills, the U.S. hopes to earn the trust of other regional powers and persuade them to collaborate with it in developing a mega security infrastructure that would enable it to lead the global campaign against Islamic terrorism. With Israel establishing friendly ties with Arab nations, the U.S. mediation has fostered a peaceful environment in the Middle East. This is a crucial step in addressing challenges like Iran's nuclear ambitions, the expansionist aspect of Iranian political philosophy, the sponsorship of terrorism through the usage of oil resources, and the expansion of Russia and China in Gulf states.

The participation of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel in the drill would signify a closer alignment between the nations and could result in more military cooperation. As a result, regional security issues may be approached more systematically, especially when it comes to containing Iran's influence. The U.S., Israel, UAE, and Saudi Arabia might cooperate militarily through participation in the Juniper Oak exercise, which could improve their defense skills and capacity to address regional threats.

Amit Kumar is a doctoral student at BITS PILANI in India. His primary study focus is China's relationship with Islam. Amit has worked as a Political Researcher for the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha, India's National Political Party's youth wing. Read full bio here.

The Kabul Debacle: A Catalyst for India-Israel Strategic Alliance

By Amit Kumar

With Afghanistan now anarchic and a breeding ground for Islamic extremists, the Taliban's presence in Afghanistan promotes ultra-orthodox Islamic culture, highlighting the retreat of the United States from liberal international ideals. The complex web of jihadi organisational networks (figure 1) clouding over from the East Mediterranean via India to Indonesia poses a national security threat to both India and Israel, among other nations. In theory, the Taliban is the epicenter from which all jihadist organisations radiate and receive spiritual and material support during a crisis. Taliban vying for legitimacy from China, Pakistan, and cross fertilisation with major terror groups - Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda and Haqqani - is a lethal concoction for the peaceful and secular world.

The Taliban's takeover has sent a clear message to other terrorist organizations that a glorious victory is achievable in the end. While these Islamic extremists' actions and interests differ, their ideology and terror motivation make them a security hazard. In the absence of America's security cover, secular democracies - Israel and India - are under grave threat and require reengineering of their strategic bilateral partnership against the developing intricate network of terror hovering over a large region.

Figure 1: Disturbing Web of Terror Organizations hovering over Eastern Mediterranean via India to Indonesia (Built upon Philip B. K. Potter’s diagram)

Converging Security threat for India & Israel

The Taliban's integrated jihadist network has strong roots in Pakistan - Haqqani, Al Qaeda and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM); the changed geopolitical dynamics offer Pakistan an advantage in nurturing, training, and sponsoring terrorism, which would fuel its goal of making India bleed through a thousand cuts by intensifying terrorist operations in Kashmir. Furthermore, China's financial and low-cost defense technology assistance to Pakistan and Afghanistan will worsen India's counter-terrorism efforts. The escalation of tensions between China and India, guerrilla organisations in Myanmar trained by the Chinese Communist Party, and an increase in insurgents from the Pakistan and Bangladesh borders will result in a security nightmare. 

Iran's cultivation of the Shiite Crescent, explicit backing for Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah, and its nuclear ambitions, constitute a significant threat to Israel's security in the Gulf area. The changing dynamics between Iran and the Taliban will support the radical objectives of Iran's proxies - Hamas, Palestinian Islamist Jihad, and Hezbollah - in exchange for legitimacy and support against ISIS. This would contribute to what Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander General Hossein Salami refers to as Iran's "strategic objective of eliminating Israel off the world political map."

With the United States withdrawal, the overarching security cover is blown, further fracturing the power equilibrium and creating a hegemonic void. Furthermore, the emergence of the Taliban at the crossroads of West and South Asia exacerbates the already fragile security environment. The disposal of modernised armament left behind by the Americans is what makes the Taliban and its offshoot jihadi network formidable. Additionally, China, in its self-interest of preserving its western border, Uyghur nationalism from radicalization, and Belt and Road investment, was keen to recognise the Taliban as a legitimate authority. China has a long history of assisting authoritarian governments through financing and high-tech low-cost weapons, such as Iran in the Gulf War, while maintaining plausible deniability. Its symbiotic relationship with the Taliban will dramatically increase the latter’s firepower, leading to proliferation to other terror organisations.

The emerging geopolitics have driven unrestrained Islamic extremism to unprecedented heights. This necessitates a reorientation of security policies of both India and Israel. Since they share a fundamental apprehension of existential threats and a common interest in defending borders and upholding democratic ideals, both need to deepen their strategic ties and develop a well-coordinated system of efforts for their converging interest to contain and thwart threats emanating from Islamic radicalization.

Deepening of India-Israel Strategic Cooperation

India and Israel must broaden and deepen their collaboration to strengthen security against the region's developing terror network. Joint defense manufacturing and weapons production, including missiles, AWACS, radars, 3D printed weapons, and drone technology. More R&D is urgently needed in electronic warfare, space warfare, cybersecurity, sensors, artificial intelligence, and defence subsystems. Technology has emerged as an engine of security, which Israel's brilliance and India's size can fully utilise. The battle-hardened Israel and India should annually hold Blue Flag drills to boost special forces capabilities, including cross-border counter-terrorist operations. This will provide their armed forces a qualitative military edge, boost interoperability, and present a united front against Islamist extremists. The high degree of mutual trust should unleash full exchange of military and intelligence sharing between R&AW and Mossad.

India should flex soft power muscles and Israel's Abraham Accords to acquire the trust of Arab countries in order to safeguard the region from extremism. In the absence of America, Israel's comparative advantage in the armaments industry, the Abraham pact, and India's links with the GCC nations should garner support to fill the security void. Because of the altered geostrategic environment, the two nations must develop a situation-based strategic collaboration to combat terrorism.

Conclusion 

The Taliban's incapacity to rule and secure Afghanistan will feed regional terrorism. China's economic incentives for the Taliban, along with the United States' retreat, have increased the morale of Islamic extremism, resulting in national security implications for India and Israel. The failure of the world's major powers to intervene in Afghanistan against Islamist extremists has ripped a vacuum in security leadership that must be filled by the combined efforts of Israel and India. India's military and security supremacy in South Asia, combined with Israel's offensive and defensive technical marvels and unfettered access to American high-grade weapons, can defend the region against a complex web of radicals. The Taliban’s takeover provides Israel and India with the opportunity to take their strategic partnership to greater heights, with the potential to become an alliance against Islamist radicals and to resist China's expansion.

Amit Kumar is a doctoral student at BITS PILANI in India. His primary study focus is China's relationship with Islam. Amit has worked as a Political Researcher for the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha, India's National Political Party's youth wing. Read full bio here.