By David Hacham
An increasingly intense struggle to succeed the aging and ailing Palestinian Authority (PA) President, Mahmoud Abbas, is underway among potential successors. In the shadow of the Coronavirus pandemic, Abbas is currently remaining at home, from where he is managing affairs.
Some contenders to replace him already have their own armed militias, in some cases numbering hundreds of members, to provide them with armed support, and increase their chances in the event that the expected power struggle turns violent.
In order to attempt to seize power, such militias could be ordered to take control of symbolic government sites, like the headquarters of the PA Presidency in Ramallah, or TV and radio stations. While the PA is aware of such militias, it has not clashed with them until now, and there has been no friction or incidents between them and PA security forces.
Israel's foremost and primary interest is in preventing chaos and clashes between various Fatah groups, maintaining stability in the West Bank, and enabling the continuous function of the PA. Israel also has a clear interest in preventing Hamas from exploiting instability in order to rise in power. Hamas's strategic objective is to take over the West Bank and the PLO, and extend its rule beyond Gaza, thereby becoming, at the end of the process, the sole ruling element in the Palestinian arena.
Abbas, 84, a heavy smoker who is not in good health, has been hospitalized repeatedly in recent years, including for cancer and a heart catheterization process. He could exit the scene, in one way or another, suddenly and without prior warning.
He holds the three main roles: PA President – a position he has held since the presidential elections of January 2005, as well as Chairman of the PLO, and Fatah movement Chairman.
The succession of power that would follow his departure could take a variety of forms. If the transition is smooth, it might involve the creation of a temporary ruling council, made up of one or multiple senior Fatah members that would take charge of the PA, the PLO, and Fatah. Alternatively, in extreme scenarios, the rivals with 'claims to the throne' could face off violently.
Abbas maintains a highly intensive daily agenda, but his ailing condition has left many in the Palestinian street feeling that his departure will happen sooner rather than later.
Many in the Fatah leadership view themselves as potential successors, but they take care not to demonstrate their ambitions too openly.
On the ground, pretenders to the throne are already active, albeit away from public view, building up bases of support.
Tensions are made worse by Abbas's tendency – like Arafat before him - to avoid publicly and officially naming his successor, in order to prevent others from challenging him.
The decision by the constitutional court to disperse the Palestinian Legislative Council in December 2018 was designed to prevent the chairman of the council, a Hamas member, Abed Al-Aziz Dweik, from succeeding Abbas on the event that he is unable to complete his term for any reason.
Ultimately, Abbas's objective is to safeguard the status quo in the PA without making any major structural changes at this time to the government at this time.
CANDIDATES FOR SUCCESSION
One potential candidate for succession is Mahmoud Al-Aloul, a 70-year-old Fatah Central Committee Vice Chairman. Al-Aloul, who has his own militia, is originally from Nablus, and was deported to Jordan by Israel in 1971 due his terrorist activities. A former Nablus governor, his current position provides Al-Aloul with a certain advantage in the leadership struggle. His son, Jihad, was killed by Israeli forces during the Second Intifada. He enjoys a clean image of a leader, not linked to corruption.
Majed Faraj, 56, is a member of a family of refugees from Dehehishe refugee camp near Bethlehem. He is known to be close to Abbas, is the head of the PA's General Intelligence Service (GIS), and is a prominent candidate. He is close to Abbas, and is seen as a figure who attracts international support. Some elements in Fatah assume that he is Abbas's preferred candidate. Faraj has recently been the target of an assassination plot in the West Bank, which seems to signal an escalation in the succession struggle. Some observers blamed the plot on former West Bank intelligence chief and Fatah Central Committee member Tawfik Tirawi. Tirawi, who was the former head of the GIS, has publicly denied any connection to the plot. Faraj served six years in an Israeli prison during the First Intifada. He was appointed commander of the GIS in 2009.
Palestinian Prime Minister Dr. Mohammed Shtayah, 62, appointed to his post in March 2019, is also a candidate. Shtayah has been the subject of increased rumors lately regarding his apparent growing chances of succeeding Abbas. An economist by training, Shtayah has not been involved in the power struggles taking place in the Palestinian arena. He also lacks strong popular support, but enjoys cooperation with Al-Aloul. His appointment as prime minister was interpreted by some as an attempt by Abbas to promote him as a successor.
Dr. Saeb Erekat, 64, the high-profile negotiator and secretary of the PLO Executive Committee, is a well known figure in the Palestinian, Arab, and international arenas. Yet Erekat lacks sufficient popular support and has no military backing. He suffers from poor health as well, and his chances of being a viable candidate appear low.
Dr. Nasser Al-Qudwa, 67, was the PLO's representative to the UN, and a nephew of Arafat. Qudwa enjoys the support of Fatah Central Committee Member Tawfik Tirawi, who has popular support. Al-Qudwa has served as the prime minister of the PA.
Jibril Rajoub, 66, is the Palestinian Football Association Chairman and the Chairman of the Olympic Committee. Rajoub, a veteran political leader, enjoys support from an armed militia. He hails from the Rajoub clan of the Mount Hebron area. Rajoub has the backing of the Palestinian Preventative Security (PPS), which he once commanded. Rajoub has used his current position to build up a popular support base.
Former Central Fatah Committee member and ex Tanzim commander Marwan Barghouti, 60, who is serving five life sentences for the murder of Israelis in terrorist attacks, is seen as an outlying candidate. Barghouti enjoys popularity among young Fatah members due to his incarceration in an Israeli prison, and some believe that his path out of jail involves succeeding Abbas. He is also popular in the Gaza Strip, due his history of armed struggle against Israel.
An additional outlying candidate is Muhammad Dahlan, 58, originally from the Khan Younis refugee camp in Gaza. Dahlan was ejected from Fatah's ranks by Abbas in 2011. He is currently in exile in the UAE, is relatively weak in the West Bank, but maintains a strong influence on Fatah loyalists in Gaza. His standing in the Palestinian arena has grown stronger in recent years, and he has formed alliances with elements in Fatah and the PA. His record of being able to secure financial support for Gaza and the West Bank via Gulf states and on behalf of NGOs have boosted Dahlan's standing. Dahlan also receives support from Egypt and maintains close ties with the Al-Sisi government, which views him as a suitable potential successor to Abbas.
At this stage, it is too soon to summarize Abbas's rule. His legacy is mixed. On the one hand, he did not succeed in implementing his vision of solving the Israel-Palestinian conflict in line with his vision of a Palestinian state, alongside the State of Israel. Trump's Deal of the Century further frustrated this vision.
On the other hand, the split that occurred between Gaza and the West Bank in 2007 turned him into a leader in charge of one geographical part of the Palestinian arena. He remains in charge of a stable, functional Palestinian entity that holds ties with Israel, particularly in the area of security coordination.
The near future will likely reveal how the transfer of power will occur, and should events turn violent, Israel will face difficult dilemmas on how to deal with the potential challenges that lie ahead.
David Hacham served for 30 years in IDF intelligence, is a former Commander of Coordination of Govt. Activities in the Territories (COGAT) and was advisor for Arab Affairs to seven Israeli Ministers of Defense.