Ilan Evyatar

Naftali Bennett’s Choice Will Shape Israel’s Future

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With a week to go until Israel’s fourth elections in two years, right and center-right parties are currently polling some 80 seats in the 120 seat Knesset. But these elections are no longer about right versus left. Instead, they boil down to one issue: Bibi, or not Bibi.

That is, will Israel’s longest-serving prime minister remain in office for an unprecedented sixth term, or will he be unseated by a disparate coalition, whose only unifying factor is the desire to remove Benjamin Netanyahu from power.

Lining up against the incumbent is what has been dubbed “the bloc for change” —  the parties that have stated they will not, under any circumstance, sit in government with Netanyahu.

This bloc is comprised of New Hope, a center-right party founded by Netanyahu’s former Likud protege, Gideon Sa’ar; Yesh Atid (center); Blue and White (center); Labor and Meretz (left); and reformed right-wing firebrand Avigdor Lieberman and his Yisrael Beiteinu party, running on an anti-Orthodox ticket.

In the opposing corner, Netanyahu and his Likud will team up with the ultra-Orthodox parties — Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) — and with the ultra-nationalist Religious Zionist Party (RZP).

With neither side able to form a coalition, they will both be dependent on the one party that hasn’t made it clear on which side it stands — Naftali Bennett’s Yamina Party, which espouses right-wing views on nationalist issues, a libertarian economic agenda, and “supports individual liberties while cherishing Jewish tradition and heritage.”

Bennett thus holds the key to what the next government will look like, and will have to choose between the religious nationalist bloc led by Netanyahu and the “bloc for change,” which has no clear leader at this stage. Yair Lapid has, as of the time of writing, so far refrained from stating that he is running for prime minister, and has even suggested that he could lead from behind in order to enable a coalition that could bring down Bibi.

There is little in common between the parties of the “bloc for change,” which range from the pro-annexation, anti-Palestinian-state New Hope on the right, to Meretz on the left, which is anti-settlement and for a two-state solution. They also differ on — well, pretty much everything, from economic policy, to their attitude towards the legal system and the courts. But there is one aspect that binds them together — secularism and opposition to the grip of the ultra-Orthodox parties on Israeli politics and society.

Bennett thus may well hold the key not merely to the question of whether Benjamin Netanyahu will stay in office, but to how Israel will be shaped in the years to come.

A look at the polls shows just how strategic a position the former defense minister holds. In the final polls taken by the three major TV channels before this article went to press, Likud was polling 28-29 seats; Yesh Atid 19-20; Yamina 11-12; New Hope 9-10; the Joint Arab List 8-9; Shas 6-8; UTJ 7; Yisrael Beiteinu 7; Labor 6; RZP 4-6; Blue and White 4-5; and Meretz ranges from 4 to teetering below the electoral threshold, as does the United Arab List.

Netanyahu, even if he were to take the unprecedented step of leaning on the support of Abbas Mansour’s United Arab List, can only form a coalition with the help of Bennett — and the same goes for the bloc for change. If the votes fall evenly, then Bennett may not be able to give either party the 61-seat majority required for victory — unless the bloc for change leans on the Joint Arab List for support from the outside, something Bennett adamantly states he will not agree to.

In the dog-eat-dog world of Israeli politics, the big players are jostling for position. Netanyahu — after weeks of portraying the elections as being a competition between a Likud-led government and a “left-wing” coalition led by Yair Lapid, so as to belittle Gideon Sa’ar — has now moved to shore up the Religious Zionist Party to ensure that it passes the threshold, while bludgeoning Bennett in order to cut Yamina down to size.

Lapid, meanwhile, is aiming to gain seats off Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party — a dangerous ploy, because if he is too successful, he will push his former partner under the electoral threshold, and, with Meretz already teetering on the verge, may find he has overplayed his hand.

If either Blue and White or Meretz, or both, fail to make it into the Knesset, then not only will the bloc for change find itself with less seats, but due to Israel’s complex proportional representation system — without going into the mathematical intricacies — Likud stands to gain in the overall calculation.

Although Yamina is only the third largest party in the polls, Bennett insists nevertheless that the race for the premiership is between him and Netanyahu, and says that he will not sit in a “left wing” coalition under Lapid. Bennett’s positioning and self-branding as the man for Israel’s top job despite the fact that at least two parties will finish ahead of him in the elections, gives an insight into his mindset and where he is striving to reach.

Like Netanyahu, the 48-year-old Bennett served in the elite Sayeret Matkal commando unit, and like his former boss — under whom he served as chief of staff — he is very much focused on the end rather than the means.

The end Bennett is focused on is becoming Israel’s prime minister, and he has two routes to the premiership: either in a rotation with other parties in the “bloc of change,” or in a rotation with Netanyahu. His decision, assuming that he is in a position to choose between the two blocs, could very well rest on which option he feels gives him a longer-term advantage.

Come March 23, Israel’s near-term future will depend very much on Bennett’s choice, and where his loyalties really lie: Will he opt to go with Netanyahu and the nationalist religious camp, or will he join up to the bloc for change?


Ilan Evyatar is an Israeli journalist. He has served as Editor-in-Chief of the award-winning Jerusalem Report magazine; and News Editor of The Jerusalem Post, where he also wrote a weekly column on politics, economics and international affairs. He is currently working on his first book. Read full bio here.

Alon Liel has served as a chargé d’affaires in Turkey and as Israel’s ambassador to South Africa. Following his role in 1999 as foreign affairs adviser to then-chairman of the Labor party Ehud Barak, Liel became director-general of the Foreign Ministry in 2000.

INTERVIEW: Israel likely to spurn Turkish overtures, says former envoy

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ILAN EVYATAR INTERVIEWS ISRAEL'S FORMER AMBASSADOR TO TURKEY, DR. ALON LIEL (1981-1983)

After years of virulent anti-Israeli rhetoric, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been attempting for the past few months to patch up ties with Israel, as regional developments leave his regime isolated and alarm bells sound in Ankara with the Biden administration already taking a tough line on Turkey.

To discuss what’s behind Turkey’s attempted rapprochement with Israel and whether Jerusalem will respond to the overtures from Ankara, I spoke with Dr. Alon Liel, a former Israeli ambassador to the country.

“This has been going on for the past three or four months with the upgrading of Turkey’s representation to Israel, attempts to create talks over [economic] rights in territorial waters, and a very rare direct quote from Erdogan,” says Liel, referring to the Turkish president’s statement in late December that he would like to bring ties with Israel “to a better point.” 

That statement was tempered with a remark that Israel’s “merciless acts” against the Palestinians are “unacceptable”, but on the ground, Erdogan appointed the Hebrew-speaking policy wunderkind Ufuk Ulutas, as his designated ambassador to Tel Aviv, almost two years after the previous envoy was withdrawn.  

Jerusalem however has not reciprocated by upgrading its own representation to ambassadorial level. 

“Israel isn’t overly enthusiastic to say the least,'' notes Liel.

The former foreign ministry director general says Ankara and Jerusalem find themselves looking at each other in a mirror image. Turkey is isolated in the region, with tensions in its relations  with Egypt, Greece and Cyprus, not to mention issues with Europe. Israel on the other hand has compensated very well for the breakdown of relations with Turkey by creating a tripartite alliance with Ankara’s historic rivals Greece and Cyprus, and has improved relations with Egypt - all centered on the crucial issue of energy cooperation, and with strong military cooperation between Israel and Greece and Cyprus. 

While Turkey has weakened, Israel has become much stronger in the region: Its economy grown thanks to its booming hi-tech sector, while Turkey’s economy is plagued by high inflation, a big trade imbalance and a weak currency, and on the military front, Israel strikes with impunity in Syria, and does as it wishes in the region. 

“Turkey is interested but Israel doesn’t see the need,” says Liel. 

Not to mention, he adds, that there is also a lot of anger on the Israeli side with Erdogan, both for his tone over the past decade toward Jerusalem and his cozy relations with Hamas. 

Meanwhile, Israel recently signed the Abraham Accords, acquiring new regional partners - most prominently the United Arab Emirates - and  further isolating Turkey. Ankara has its own tensions with the UAE playing out across the MENA region and Israel will also have to take Abu Dhabi’s feelings into account.

“If Jerusalem were to upgrade relations with Turkey now, that would not be appreciated,” says Liel. 

While the recent reconciliation between the Gulf Cooperation Council and Qatar does give Ankara a “crack to get back in,” says Liel, if it was successful in repairing its ties with the Saudi led bloc, Turkey would “stop its flirtation with Israel.”

Meanwhile another major issue pushing Erdogan’s attempts at rapprochement is his concerns about what policy the Biden administration will adopt toward Turkey given its sensitivity to human rights issues, Turkey’s purchase of S-400 missiles from Russia that led President Donald Trump to kick its NATO ally out of the F-35 stealth fighter-jet  program, and concerns over Turkey’s aggressive posture in the Mediterranean. The thinking in Ankara is that improved ties with Israel can open doors in Washington - doors that Israel is in no hurry to open.

Turkey has also shot itself in the foot on the energy front. After investing tens of billions of dollars in becoming an energy hub leading gas from production sites in the Caspian region to consumption sites in Europe, Turkey had hoped to become a similar conduit for the huge natural gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean, among them Israel’s Leviathan field. 

One of the things that really hit Turkey, says Liel, is the Cairo-based EastMed Gas Forum, which   includes the Palestinians, along with Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt, but has left Ankara out in the cold. 

He adds that while the most economically feasible way of moving Israeli gas to Europe would be to hook up to the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline which began moving Azerbaijani gas to Europe in 2018, that is currently unthinkable for Jerusalem, which won’t allow Turkey to become a player in the EastMed gas market under current circumstances. 

But while Liel sees “little interest” from Jerusalem  in restoring relations , he notes that people to people ties and trade remain strong - in fact Turkey was Israel’s seventh largest export market in 2020 - despite the long period of tension between the countries.  

“Tensions are mostly at the level of top political echelons but not among the public,” says Liel, who by way of an anecdote of the cultural closeness between the two countries notes the huge popularity of Turkish telenovelas in Israel.

In the long run he adds, a rapprochement between Israel and Turkey will probably require a change of leadership. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees himself as having been stung by Erdogan, so the big question from his perspective is who will be running Israel’s foreign policy following the next elections. If it is someone who hasn’t been directly hit by Erdogan, then there could be a greater chance of an improvement in relations. 

Erdogan’s analysis is strikingly similar. 

"The main problem right now is about individuals at the top," the Turkish president said in his December statement. 


Ilan Evyatar is an Israeli journalist. He has served as Editor-in-Chief of the award-winning Jerusalem Report magazine; and News Editor of The Jerusalem Post, where he also wrote a weekly column on politics, economics and international affairs. He is currently working on his first book. Read full bio here.

Alon Liel has served as a chargé d’affaires in Turkey and as Israel’s ambassador to South Africa. Following his role in 1999 as foreign affairs adviser to then-chairman of the Labor party Ehud Barak, Liel became director-general of the Foreign Ministry in 2000.