By Amit Kumar
With Afghanistan now anarchic and a breeding ground for Islamic extremists, the Taliban's presence in Afghanistan promotes ultra-orthodox Islamic culture, highlighting the retreat of the United States from liberal international ideals. The complex web of jihadi organisational networks (figure 1) clouding over from the East Mediterranean via India to Indonesia poses a national security threat to both India and Israel, among other nations. In theory, the Taliban is the epicenter from which all jihadist organisations radiate and receive spiritual and material support during a crisis. Taliban vying for legitimacy from China, Pakistan, and cross fertilisation with major terror groups - Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda and Haqqani - is a lethal concoction for the peaceful and secular world.
The Taliban's takeover has sent a clear message to other terrorist organizations that a glorious victory is achievable in the end. While these Islamic extremists' actions and interests differ, their ideology and terror motivation make them a security hazard. In the absence of America's security cover, secular democracies - Israel and India - are under grave threat and require reengineering of their strategic bilateral partnership against the developing intricate network of terror hovering over a large region.
Figure 1: Disturbing Web of Terror Organizations hovering over Eastern Mediterranean via India to Indonesia (Built upon Philip B. K. Potter’s diagram)
Converging Security threat for India & Israel
The Taliban's integrated jihadist network has strong roots in Pakistan - Haqqani, Al Qaeda and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM); the changed geopolitical dynamics offer Pakistan an advantage in nurturing, training, and sponsoring terrorism, which would fuel its goal of making India bleed through a thousand cuts by intensifying terrorist operations in Kashmir. Furthermore, China's financial and low-cost defense technology assistance to Pakistan and Afghanistan will worsen India's counter-terrorism efforts. The escalation of tensions between China and India, guerrilla organisations in Myanmar trained by the Chinese Communist Party, and an increase in insurgents from the Pakistan and Bangladesh borders will result in a security nightmare.
Iran's cultivation of the Shiite Crescent, explicit backing for Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah, and its nuclear ambitions, constitute a significant threat to Israel's security in the Gulf area. The changing dynamics between Iran and the Taliban will support the radical objectives of Iran's proxies - Hamas, Palestinian Islamist Jihad, and Hezbollah - in exchange for legitimacy and support against ISIS. This would contribute to what Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander General Hossein Salami refers to as Iran's "strategic objective of eliminating Israel off the world political map."
With the United States withdrawal, the overarching security cover is blown, further fracturing the power equilibrium and creating a hegemonic void. Furthermore, the emergence of the Taliban at the crossroads of West and South Asia exacerbates the already fragile security environment. The disposal of modernised armament left behind by the Americans is what makes the Taliban and its offshoot jihadi network formidable. Additionally, China, in its self-interest of preserving its western border, Uyghur nationalism from radicalization, and Belt and Road investment, was keen to recognise the Taliban as a legitimate authority. China has a long history of assisting authoritarian governments through financing and high-tech low-cost weapons, such as Iran in the Gulf War, while maintaining plausible deniability. Its symbiotic relationship with the Taliban will dramatically increase the latter’s firepower, leading to proliferation to other terror organisations.
The emerging geopolitics have driven unrestrained Islamic extremism to unprecedented heights. This necessitates a reorientation of security policies of both India and Israel. Since they share a fundamental apprehension of existential threats and a common interest in defending borders and upholding democratic ideals, both need to deepen their strategic ties and develop a well-coordinated system of efforts for their converging interest to contain and thwart threats emanating from Islamic radicalization.
Deepening of India-Israel Strategic Cooperation
India and Israel must broaden and deepen their collaboration to strengthen security against the region's developing terror network. Joint defense manufacturing and weapons production, including missiles, AWACS, radars, 3D printed weapons, and drone technology. More R&D is urgently needed in electronic warfare, space warfare, cybersecurity, sensors, artificial intelligence, and defence subsystems. Technology has emerged as an engine of security, which Israel's brilliance and India's size can fully utilise. The battle-hardened Israel and India should annually hold Blue Flag drills to boost special forces capabilities, including cross-border counter-terrorist operations. This will provide their armed forces a qualitative military edge, boost interoperability, and present a united front against Islamist extremists. The high degree of mutual trust should unleash full exchange of military and intelligence sharing between R&AW and Mossad.
India should flex soft power muscles and Israel's Abraham Accords to acquire the trust of Arab countries in order to safeguard the region from extremism. In the absence of America, Israel's comparative advantage in the armaments industry, the Abraham pact, and India's links with the GCC nations should garner support to fill the security void. Because of the altered geostrategic environment, the two nations must develop a situation-based strategic collaboration to combat terrorism.
Conclusion
The Taliban's incapacity to rule and secure Afghanistan will feed regional terrorism. China's economic incentives for the Taliban, along with the United States' retreat, have increased the morale of Islamic extremism, resulting in national security implications for India and Israel. The failure of the world's major powers to intervene in Afghanistan against Islamist extremists has ripped a vacuum in security leadership that must be filled by the combined efforts of Israel and India. India's military and security supremacy in South Asia, combined with Israel's offensive and defensive technical marvels and unfettered access to American high-grade weapons, can defend the region against a complex web of radicals. The Taliban’s takeover provides Israel and India with the opportunity to take their strategic partnership to greater heights, with the potential to become an alliance against Islamist radicals and to resist China's expansion.
Amit Kumar is a doctoral student at BITS PILANI in India. His primary study focus is China's relationship with Islam. Amit has worked as a Political Researcher for the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha, India's National Political Party's youth wing. Read full bio here.