Commentary

Naftali Bennett’s Choice Will Shape Israel’s Future

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With a week to go until Israel’s fourth elections in two years, right and center-right parties are currently polling some 80 seats in the 120 seat Knesset. But these elections are no longer about right versus left. Instead, they boil down to one issue: Bibi, or not Bibi.

That is, will Israel’s longest-serving prime minister remain in office for an unprecedented sixth term, or will he be unseated by a disparate coalition, whose only unifying factor is the desire to remove Benjamin Netanyahu from power.

Lining up against the incumbent is what has been dubbed “the bloc for change” —  the parties that have stated they will not, under any circumstance, sit in government with Netanyahu.

This bloc is comprised of New Hope, a center-right party founded by Netanyahu’s former Likud protege, Gideon Sa’ar; Yesh Atid (center); Blue and White (center); Labor and Meretz (left); and reformed right-wing firebrand Avigdor Lieberman and his Yisrael Beiteinu party, running on an anti-Orthodox ticket.

In the opposing corner, Netanyahu and his Likud will team up with the ultra-Orthodox parties — Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) — and with the ultra-nationalist Religious Zionist Party (RZP).

With neither side able to form a coalition, they will both be dependent on the one party that hasn’t made it clear on which side it stands — Naftali Bennett’s Yamina Party, which espouses right-wing views on nationalist issues, a libertarian economic agenda, and “supports individual liberties while cherishing Jewish tradition and heritage.”

Bennett thus holds the key to what the next government will look like, and will have to choose between the religious nationalist bloc led by Netanyahu and the “bloc for change,” which has no clear leader at this stage. Yair Lapid has, as of the time of writing, so far refrained from stating that he is running for prime minister, and has even suggested that he could lead from behind in order to enable a coalition that could bring down Bibi.

There is little in common between the parties of the “bloc for change,” which range from the pro-annexation, anti-Palestinian-state New Hope on the right, to Meretz on the left, which is anti-settlement and for a two-state solution. They also differ on — well, pretty much everything, from economic policy, to their attitude towards the legal system and the courts. But there is one aspect that binds them together — secularism and opposition to the grip of the ultra-Orthodox parties on Israeli politics and society.

Bennett thus may well hold the key not merely to the question of whether Benjamin Netanyahu will stay in office, but to how Israel will be shaped in the years to come.

A look at the polls shows just how strategic a position the former defense minister holds. In the final polls taken by the three major TV channels before this article went to press, Likud was polling 28-29 seats; Yesh Atid 19-20; Yamina 11-12; New Hope 9-10; the Joint Arab List 8-9; Shas 6-8; UTJ 7; Yisrael Beiteinu 7; Labor 6; RZP 4-6; Blue and White 4-5; and Meretz ranges from 4 to teetering below the electoral threshold, as does the United Arab List.

Netanyahu, even if he were to take the unprecedented step of leaning on the support of Abbas Mansour’s United Arab List, can only form a coalition with the help of Bennett — and the same goes for the bloc for change. If the votes fall evenly, then Bennett may not be able to give either party the 61-seat majority required for victory — unless the bloc for change leans on the Joint Arab List for support from the outside, something Bennett adamantly states he will not agree to.

In the dog-eat-dog world of Israeli politics, the big players are jostling for position. Netanyahu — after weeks of portraying the elections as being a competition between a Likud-led government and a “left-wing” coalition led by Yair Lapid, so as to belittle Gideon Sa’ar — has now moved to shore up the Religious Zionist Party to ensure that it passes the threshold, while bludgeoning Bennett in order to cut Yamina down to size.

Lapid, meanwhile, is aiming to gain seats off Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party — a dangerous ploy, because if he is too successful, he will push his former partner under the electoral threshold, and, with Meretz already teetering on the verge, may find he has overplayed his hand.

If either Blue and White or Meretz, or both, fail to make it into the Knesset, then not only will the bloc for change find itself with less seats, but due to Israel’s complex proportional representation system — without going into the mathematical intricacies — Likud stands to gain in the overall calculation.

Although Yamina is only the third largest party in the polls, Bennett insists nevertheless that the race for the premiership is between him and Netanyahu, and says that he will not sit in a “left wing” coalition under Lapid. Bennett’s positioning and self-branding as the man for Israel’s top job despite the fact that at least two parties will finish ahead of him in the elections, gives an insight into his mindset and where he is striving to reach.

Like Netanyahu, the 48-year-old Bennett served in the elite Sayeret Matkal commando unit, and like his former boss — under whom he served as chief of staff — he is very much focused on the end rather than the means.

The end Bennett is focused on is becoming Israel’s prime minister, and he has two routes to the premiership: either in a rotation with other parties in the “bloc of change,” or in a rotation with Netanyahu. His decision, assuming that he is in a position to choose between the two blocs, could very well rest on which option he feels gives him a longer-term advantage.

Come March 23, Israel’s near-term future will depend very much on Bennett’s choice, and where his loyalties really lie: Will he opt to go with Netanyahu and the nationalist religious camp, or will he join up to the bloc for change?


Ilan Evyatar is an Israeli journalist. He has served as Editor-in-Chief of the award-winning Jerusalem Report magazine; and News Editor of The Jerusalem Post, where he also wrote a weekly column on politics, economics and international affairs. He is currently working on his first book. Read full bio here.

Alon Liel has served as a chargé d’affaires in Turkey and as Israel’s ambassador to South Africa. Following his role in 1999 as foreign affairs adviser to then-chairman of the Labor party Ehud Barak, Liel became director-general of the Foreign Ministry in 2000.

Abbas has proven himself to be a first class strategist

By Eitan Dangot

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Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is implementing a highly efficient strategy in multiple arenas and maneuvering an array of challenges with visible success.

Since the election of the Biden administration, Abbas has reached an optimal point in his moves to reposition the PA both within the Palestinian arena and internationally, and it is clear that Abbas has been waiting for years for the Trump administration to pass before implementing his recent maneuvers. 

Months before the elections in the United States, Abbas and his inner circle assessed that Biden would likely win, and began signaling their change through a number of ‘softener steps’ designed to move away from Ramallah’s absolutist posture that had rejected cooperation with the U.S. and Israel.

These steps, conducted on the eve of the U.S. elections, included the return of security coordination with the Israel Defense Forces, after many months in which it had been suspended, and a resumption of receipt of tax payments from Israel, which had been frozen for months, creating a significant burden on the PA’s economy and its residents.

Abbas’s goal was to signal to the Biden administration that he is embarking on confidence-building measures vis-à-vis Israel in order to gain Washington’s faith.

As an inseparable part of this policy, Abbas understood that he must also achieve quiet with his hated Islamist rivals, Hamas, whom he will never forgive for the humiliating coup and ejection of Fatah from the Gaza Strip in 2007.

Despite the enmity, Abbas recruited senior PA official Jibril Rajoub to hold  contacts with Hamas – thereby decreasing friction within the Fatah leadership as a side product – and made Cairo the scene of Hamas-Fatah reconciliation talks, thereby returning Egypt to the stance of senior regional mediator, a position it is keen to play.

Meanwhile, Abbas significantly decreased public criticism of the Gulf states that signed normalization deals with Israel, and returned the PA’s ambassador to the UAE. In doing so, he placated Saudi anger at Ramallah, since Riyadh was the main regional power backer of the Abraham Accords, and had increasingly come to see the Palestinians as an obstacle in creating a regional bloc against Iran.

Within the Palestinian arena, the 86-year-old Abbas appears to have set a personal objective of completing his term in the coming years by positioning the PA as the central, exclusive, lead representative of the Palestinians, thereby creating a strong legacy that is designed to justify the manner in which he has ruled since being elected president in 2005.

To further this goal, Abbas’s acceptance of tax funds form Israel and his safeguarding of the economic status quo has provided the PA with stability, which, when viewed in comparison with the economic crises of other Arab states, is particularly prominent.

Abbas’s decision to proceed in a phased manner with Palestinian elections to the national parliament and presidency in May and July respectively is a signal to the U.S. and to the international community, designed to indicate this leadership is striving to repair ‘holes’ in Palestinian governance and make it more democratic.

The elections were also designed to reduce resentment felt by Hamas after Abbas renewed security coordination with Israel and cancelled the reconciliation process.

The elections carry with them major risks should Fatah and Abbas lose, while also carrying a promise of quiet since they attract the support of most Palestinian factions. The decision to move in this direction stems from Abbas’s need to have quiet on the Hamas front at this stage – but he still can cancel the process at any time and blame Israel for the abortion of the elections, using Israel’s refusal to allow them to take place in east Jerusalem as an excuse.

Israel, for its part, is addressing the issue cautiously in order to avoid being accused of disrupting the Palestinian democratic process. Yet any new Israeli government that forms after Israel’s own elections will have very little time to formulate responses on whether to allow Hamas to take part in West Bank ballot counts, or for voting to go ahead in east Jerusalem. 

Abbas also took advantage of the fact that Hamas is holding its own parallel internal elections, a process that is taking up the terror organization’s focus, leaving Hamas less able to focus on campaigning in the wider elections.

The Hamas elections in Gaza resulted in a win for the incumbent Yahya Sinwar, but only after four rounds of elections – a testament to the fact that Hamas’s current path of seeking truce arrangements faces major opposition by the veteran generation that is radical and extreme. This will complicate the manner in which Sinwar will lead, together with whoever wins the elections for the overseas political bureau, Khaled Mashaal or Ismael Haniyeh.

Hamas, for its part, is playing the long game, and views the elections as an opportunity to dominate the PA and the PLO, in line with its central objective of being the future ruler of the Palestinians.

Within Fatah itself, Abbas is working intensively to neutralize almost every attempt to undermine his power, focusing particularly on his sworn enemy, Mohammed Dahlan, as well as Marwan Barghouti, who is imprisoned in an Israeli jail for deadly terror attacks, and political threats from his rival (and the nephew of the late Yasser Arafat) Nasser Al-Qudwah.

Ultimately, Abbas has been able to achieve recognition of his leadership status, portray himself as a unifying figure in the Palestinian arena, and is able to celebrate his achievement of dragging Israel to the International Criminal Court in Hague – a threat that Israel must formulate a practical and wise response to.

He is regaining traditional international support for the PA from the U.S. and Europe, and there can be no doubt that Abbas forms a serious challenge to Israel.

Abbas will now be able to issue demands to return Israel to negotiations with the PA. Despite past regional forecasts, he has proven his ability to bring the Palestinian issue back as a central issue on the Middle Eastern agenda.


Major-General Eitan Dangot concluded his extensive career as the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (C.O.G.A.T.) in 2014. Prior to that post he served as the Military Secretary to three Ministers of Defense; Shaul Mofaz, Amir Peretz and Ehud Barak. Read full bio here.

Mid-East adversaries: Signaling Conflict, Avoiding War

By Eitan Dangot

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The Middle East has entered a new and significant stage in recent weeks, as all regional actors position themselves around the key question of whether or not the Biden administration renews the Iran nuclear agreement. Failure to achieve an improved nuclear deal and to cause Iran to downgrade its regional destabilizing activities will have long-lasting effects, could create an economic disaster in Iran, and could lead to a military escalation between Iran and America’s regional allies.

The issue of whether sanctions on Iran will be lifted, and the outline of a possible new agreement, is the leading factor that will shape the face of the Middle East in the coming years.

The new American administration is maneuvering through a minefield, in which various developments could impact its decisions on the region.

To understand the new complex Middle Eastern puzzle, it is first necessary to recognize the fact that the Biden administrations is dealing with Iran on two fronts: The first is Tehran’s radical activities and support for armed movements that stretches from Yemen through to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, as part of a grand strategic attempt to change realities in the region. The second is Iran’s nuclear program.

Every attempt by the United States to solve one of these fronts without linking it to the other is doomed to fail. Iran strives to become both a nuclear regional power and to shape a new geo-political era through the rise of terror armies and militias, of which Hezbollah in Lebanon is the most powerful. Hezbollah is in fact the most heavily-armed non-state actor in the world and is in possession of advanced weapons systems.

The moment of reckoning for American policy in the Middle East is approaching in the form of the decision on the nuclear agreement, and this central junction is also influenced by other important events: The upcoming Israeli elections, and the scheduled presidential elections in Iran in June, before which the Islamic Republic may suspend any major decisions.

The formation of a regional bloc made up of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Israel has, in the wake of the Abraham Accords – a successful leftover from the policy of the Trump administration  – created a challenge to American flexibility on the Iranian issue.

Now, the new administration is presenting a cold shoulder to Israel, and at the same time is reassessing its relationship with Saudi Arabia.

As it reviews its regional policies, Washington should take into account long-term consequences of the way it deals with its central partners in its maneuvering with Iran.

The main threat to the Abraham Accords bloc now could come due to tensions between Washington and Riyadh, which was the main silent partner enabling Israeli-Gulf relations.

Iran is not resting on its laurels, and is actively working to beef up the terrorist-military channels that it has built throughout the Middle East. It is this activity that has led the entire area into an escalatory dynamic, and it is through it that the Iranians send out psychological warfare messages to the U.S. and its principal allies, Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Iran has chosen the naval arena as the main sphere in which to send out these signals. Its actions have created a significant threat to maritime shipping routes, and it is worth noting that more than 90% of Israel’s trade is conducted via shipping.

In its recent attack on an Israeli-owned ship in the Gulf of Oman, Iran has notified Israel of an equation according to which reported Israeli air strikes on Iranian military assets, targeting ground-based attempts to beef up the Iranian crescent, will be answered by attacks on Israeli shipping.

Simultaneously, Iran is activating its proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, and other militias in the region to create a ground-based threat to shipping.

The American strike on an Iranian militia in eastern Syria and the reported Israeli strike on targets in Damascus following the ship attack strengthens the idea that Syria has been selected by both Israel and the U.S. to respond with their own signals to Iran.

This escalation dynamic has not so far caused real harm to the other side, and most of the decisions are still being made in the political-diplomatic sphere, with all sides complimenting their postures with cyber attacks and other low signature activities. All sides are keen to avoid pressing the ‘escalation button’ too soon.

Iran may choose to escalate significantly after a new nuclear agreement is reached, and it has yet to retaliate for the assassinations of former Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani and the chief Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakrizadeh. Such a development could certainly ignite the region.

Washington must take into consideration the core interests of its allies, Israel and the Gulf states, who in the meantime are setting up their own independent capabilities for taking on the Iranian nuclear threat. These efforts could in future take individual-state form, or be coordinated under the framework of an alliance.

As a result, no one should be surprised if local military solutions surface as being highly realistic options to deal with the Iranian nuclear program.

Ultimately, Washington should view the spread of the Shi’ite axis, its weapons proliferation, and proxy consolidation program, as being inseparable from the nuclear deal.

The Iranians have proven and continue to prove that despite severe pressure from multiple directions – the pandemic and economic distress – their scheme to expand terror tentacles and their murderous radical ideology will not stop even for a second.

Only a combination of a firm stance in negotiations, the listing of conditions, a show of force, and leaving space for maneuver will pave the path to a contraction of Iran’s nuclear program and a curtailment of its regional activities. A U.S. failure on these counts could well lead Israel to consider a variety of operations against Iran and its militias, including the option of launching a preventive offensive against Hezbollah.

 


Major-General Eitan Dangot concluded his extensive career as the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (C.O.G.A.T.) in 2014. Prior to that post he served as the Military Secretary to three Ministers of Defense; Shaul Mofaz, Amir Peretz and Ehud Barak. Read full bio here.

A Campaign without Meaning

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By Justin Pozmanter

Israel is about to go to the polls…again.  

Elections have always been popularity contests, with the personalities of the main candidates playing a huge role in the outcome. This is only amplified when there is a polarizing incumbent on the ballot. However, it is hard to recall an election that has been nearly 100% about a single individual. Even referendums on the incumbent are almost always connected to their views and perceived performance on national security, the economy, healthcare etc.

The 2020 election in the United States was all about Donald Trump, but even then, you heard repeated arguments related to his policies on immigration, COVID-19 and others. It was not at all difficult to see a clear ideological contrast between President Trump and now-President Biden.

Compare this to the 2021 campaign here in Israel. Newspapers once reported polls with ideological blocs of left and right. The stories today are about the “Bibi-bloc” and the “anti-Bibi” bloc.

Gideon Saar is firmly in the anti-Bibi bloc, but you would be hard pressed to find a single substantive issue that separates the two. Meretz is also in the anti-Bibi camp, but there is little else on which they and Saar agree.

This dynamic is damaging for the country. There are essentially three plausible outcomes –  with the caveat that implausible things certainly can happen in Israeli politics.

1. Prime Minister Netanyahu forms a coalition: In this scenario, Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party would likely be the senior coalition partner, joined by the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, and the new National Religious Party. Prime Minister Netanyahu would continue to serve as an indicted prime minister while on trial. Whether you believe he is guilty on all counts, or that the charges are little more than a political witch hunt, it should be clear that a sitting prime minister under criminal indictment is less than ideal.

For this reason, the Knesset should move as quickly as possible to adopt some form of the so-called French Law (to apply beginning with the next prime minister), whereby prime ministers would be immune from prosecution while in office, but would also be term limited so as not to be above the law.

2. The anti-Bibi bloc forms a coalition: In this scenario Gideon Saar, Naftali Bennett or Yair Lapid (or a rotation) are able to cobble together a coalition of their own New Hope, Yamina and Yesh Atid parties plus some combination of Yisrael Beiteinu, Labor, Blue & White, Meretz and the Joint List.

Most polls show that any such coalition will be just a few seats above 60, so each coalition partner would have effective veto power over every action of the government. Given the highly disparate views of these parties, it is difficult to imagine this coalition lasting more than a few months, meaning Israel would be heading back to elections very quickly.

It appears the purpose of such a coalition would not be to actually govern, but to form a government that removes Prime Minister Netanyahu and then quickly dissolve in the hopes that he would not contest the next round of elections.

3. Nobody can form a coalition: As a result, Israel goes to election number five late this summer. It should be clear this is a bad outcome. Putting aside the expense of each election, and the budgetary gridlock caused by having perpetual interim governments, there will come a point where election after election will cause the Israeli people, and foreign observers, to begin to question the stability and value of our electoral process.

None of these outcomes arouses much excitement or confidence. And that is precisely the problem with an election that is heavy on personality and light on substance. While unchecked ideology is often problematic, and sometimes dangerous, a government run by those with some shared vision for the country, or at least similar enough views to reach plausible compromises, offers the potential for stability and positive action on behalf of the governed.

People want to believe in something, whether it is settlement of the land of Israel, Peace Now, or lower housing prices and higher wages. A government based purely on self-interest or spite will never inspire anyone.

It is also striking how much of a lost opportunity this moment may be for the right. Parties that are generally considered to the right – Likud, Yamina, New Hope, Yisrael Beiteinu, the National Religious Party, Shas and UTJ – are polling at around 75-80 seats over the last month.

The same polls show the centrist parties (Yesh Atid and Blue & White) at around 20-25, the left (Labor and Meretz) around 10 and the Joint List also at around 10. So, at the moment, polling indicates that over 80% of the electorate ranges from the center to the far right, with the Zionist left and predominantly Arab parties each at around 10% or less.

It is astonishing that after an election where 2/3 of the country will likely vote for a party to the right, a very possible outcome is something other than a right-wing government, whether it is a short-lived government of parties with no shared vision or the inability of anyone to form a coalition at all.

The result is a campaign stripped of ideology and meaning. In a place where ideological fervor and debate have always been part of the fabric of society, the current level of apathy and cynicism two weeks ahead of a national vote is alarming. We can only hope some portion of our leadership will take notice.


Justin Pozmanter is a former foreign policy advisor to Minister Tzachi Hanegbi. Before making Aliyah, he worked at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and practiced law. Read full bio here.

Europe’s bystander approach to the Abraham Accords harms its own interests

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By Daphne Richemond Barak

The Abraham Accords are a game changer for the Middle East and for Europe; yet they have been met by European leaders with skepticism. This approach threatens to harm not only the region, but also Europe’s own interests.

Europe’s reaction to the historic accords between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain has been muted to say the least. Europe was eerily silent after Israel and the UAE signed their historic agreement. It issued a subdued welcoming statement after the Bahraini-Israeli agreement was signed. This statement included a recognition of the United States’ “positive role” in the Middle East, but made no mention of a potential role for the European Union in the aftermath of the signings.

Europe has not been able to recognize what the Accords mean for the stability and prosperity of the Middle East or how they can strengthen Europe’s long-term security.

Recent years have demonstrated that the more unstable and economically-challenged the Middle East is, the more next-door Europe feels knock-on effects, whether through uncontrolled migration of refugees fleeing war-torn regions, or the spread of radical ideology and those whom it indoctrinates.

The Abraham Accords, in contrast, serve as a stabilizing counter-force in the region, decreasing the prospects of conflict and promoting economic prosperity.

As a result, those who dismiss the Accords as a mere political maneuver lacking substance, or who describe them as a formality, are downplaying not only a major transformation of the Middle East but also an event that holds important ramifications for Europe.

Europe’s southern neighborhood, which covers significant parts of the Middle East, has long been the focus of EU action. The EU has encouraged partnerships and cooperation among states, particularly in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, invested in limiting climate vulnerability and conflict, and worked toward creating opportunities for all.

The region is currently entering a new era marked by precisely the types of opportunities that EU policies have sought to promote and implement for decades, in an effort to bolster the region and EU security. If it wishes to maintain its credibility and leadership posture in the Middle East, the EU must take a proactive role in the realization of the Abraham Accords.

The reality is that the Abraham Accords are bringing to life new forms of cooperation in an array of fields, and are therefore far more than a political move. From tourism to food security, agriculture, and education, the agreements have created a genuine thirst for change in Israel and the Gulf. Israelis and Gulf state citizens want a new friendship, and this warmth adds a human dimension to the growing diplomatic ties.

Whether critics like it or not, the Accords are therefore a game changer for the region and for Europe. Attempting to deny this fact demonstrates that a certain blindness is leading the response, fueled by political pre-conceptions, such as the fear that embracing the Accords is tantamount to abandoning the Palestinian cause and aspiration for a state.

Yet the two issues are hardly mutually exclusive. Regional normalization does not threaten the Palestinian issue, and the attempt to create such a false dichotomy is baseless and counter-productive.

The habit of placing the Palestinian issue front and center in all issues relating to the Middle East can be found in developments such as the decision by the European Court of Justice to label Israeli settlement products – an indication of the climate that dominates legal institutions within Europe.

This same desire to be protective of the Palestinian issue underlies the ambivalence toward the Abraham Accords. It can also be found in the lack of efforts by some EU members to discourage the International Criminal Court from launching a war crimes probe against Israel.  

In order for the EU to truly recognize the potential of the Abraham Accords, it must cease viewing this historic development through the prism of the Palestinian issue.

Letting go of the old narrative does not mean the international community should cease discussing the Palestinian issue, but rather, recognizing the Abraham Accords as an opportunity in that respect, too.

The EU can use the Abraham Accords to create new momentum to push the Palestinian issue toward resolution. This can be achieved by harnessing the new regional dynamics to generate fresh thinking on conflict resolution. The UAE has supported the Palestinians with generous funds for years, and to present that country as indifferent to the Palestinian people does not do justice to its record and continued efforts.

Ultimately, the Abraham Accords give a glimpse of what can happen when the Middle East stops viewing Israel as the enemy. This same positive narrative can now be pivoted toward the Palestinian issue, instead of allowing the Palestinian issue to hold back active support for the Accords.

The EU therefore has a positive role to play – and not just the United States. This can take the form of convening the UN Security Council to discuss the implications of the Abraham Accords for the Middle East and Europe, or reaching out to the Biden administration to offer the EU’s assistance to the U.S. in keeping up the momentum of regional normalization. 

Rather than making the Accords contentious, Europe can play an important role in making them a unifying event


Dr. Daphné Richemond-Barak is Assistant Professor at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy, and Strategy, and Senior Researcher at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at the IDC Herzliya. She is also an Adjunct Scholar at the Modern War Institute at West Point and a publishing Expert at The MirYam Institute. Read full bio here.

Here’s how Israel can maintain an advantage in the aerial systems race

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By Shachar Shohat & YAIR RAMATI

For the past century, ever since the arrival of the aircraft on history’s stage as an effective and significant military combat tool, a race has been underway between offensive aerial platforms and defensive ground systems.

The basic process by which aerial platform capabilities are developed and then followed by a ground-based response has been with us for over a century. It is a cat-and-mouse game: Once an operational or technical gap appears, and the defense system finds itself lagging behind the attacking air power, the attackers gain air control, with all of its implications. Then the gap is closed, meaning that air defense systems regain an ability to extract high prices from attackers, to the point of being intolerable for them.

In the Middle East, this dynamic was illustrated when, toward the end of the War of Attrition in 1970, dense Egyptian air defense systems challenged the Israeli Air Force’s aerial freedom of operation for the first time.

At the outset of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Egyptian and Syrian air defense systems were so effective that air support became an almost impossible mission. Israel lost no less than 102 aircraft during the war; and at its end, it was clear that dealing with air defense systems had become the Israeli Air Force’s biggest challenge.

But in the First Lebanon War of 1982, the Israeli Air Force proved it had developed a clear edge over Russian air defense systems, as it destroyed 19 Syrian batteries and downed 97 Syrian jets without suffering any losses of its own. It was a milestone in the race and formed a revolution in the attacker-defender balance. Yet, it caused Middle Eastern adversaries to turn to new directions.

Even prior to the 1982 war, a new gap had appeared — the threat of ballistic projectiles — one that was left unanswered for years. During the First Gulf War in 1991, Israel was hit by some 40 Al-Hussein missiles fired from Iraq, a ballistic missile that had been used extensively in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq War.

The late internalization of the threat dealt Israel a significant strategic blow. In March 2000, however, a partial reply appeared when Israel deployed an operational Arrow system for the interception of ballistic missiles.

The second aspect of the gap created by ballistic threats arrived through rockets and artillery shells. During the Second Lebanon War of 2006, Israel was hit by some 3,500 rockets without the ability to defend against them.

This gap was reduced, at least in the Gaza arena vis-a-vis Hamas, when in April 2011 the Iron Dome air defense system conducted its first interception. Since then it has continued to provide a defensive umbrella throughout several rounds of conflict.

Further afield, we have seen the cat-and-mouse dynamic continue: In September 2019, Iran launched a surprise attack on oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia using attack drones and small Iranian-made cruise missiles, placing a question mark over the kingdom’s air defense systems.

The 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan saw the collapse of Armenian front-line air defenses, exposing its Army to systematic destruction through a combination of precision-guided weapons, loitering munitions and armed drones.

Two basic insights arise from these developments. The first is that threats develop in jumps, while responses usually require lengthy development phases. The second is that the timing of conflicts determine whether the defender will have an adequate response to the threat, and what price the attacker or defender will pay accordingly.

For those developing solutions, a built-in conflict exists between working according to procedure and working quickly. Those who want to complete the full processes will need longer. We suggest more daring efforts and more risk-taking, and recommend assessing the form of future threats to guide development.

For example, low-grade rockets evolved into industrial-made rockets, which then morphed into heavy projectiles before becoming accurate missiles. These have been joined by drones, mortar shells and cruise missiles. The Iron Dome can tackle all of these.

Looking ahead is crucial. In addition, spiral development, involving step-by-step innovations, is the right course.

In terms of risk-taking, those unwilling to accept failures during trials will experience incremental progress rather than breakthroughs. At its core, this struggle is an arms race, and if adversaries catch up, the price will be high.

If in the past 50 years the dynamic of threat development was moderate, today the rate has accelerated, while the technological amplitude and range of threats is almost endless.

This is a complex and challenging combination for air defense system developers and operators, which sometimes finds expression in the need to deal with painful dilemmas, such as giving a reasonable response in certain areas only.

As the rate of new threat appearances grows rapidly, air defenders are tasked with the difficult mission of finding rapid solutions. This entails taking risks and breaking rigid development principles, such as systematic technological learning. It also calls for daring in the management of development, including the willingness to absorb failures, and the close cooperation between intelligence elements as well as development and operational personnel.

Israel must win this cat-and-mouse game to maintain its aerial supremacy.


Brigadier General Shohat concluded his service in the IDF as the Commander of the Israel Air Defense Forces. During that command position he oversaw the air defense component of Operation Protective Edge, 2014. Prior to that, he served as the Head of the IDF Reorganizational Efficiency Project from 2011-2012. Read full bio here.

Yair Ramati concluded his four-year service as Director of IMDO, the government agency charged with the development, production, and the delivery of missile defense systems including: Iron Dome, David's Sling and the Arrow weapons system, to the State of Israel. Mr. Ramati received his Bachelor's degree in Aeronautical Engineering. He earned a Master's Degree in Science and Engineering from the Technion, Israel. Read full bio here.

Palestinian elections are still far from certain

By David Hacham

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Despite public statements and cautious optimism on the Palestinian street, prospects for Palestinian elections going ahead are still far from certain. Fourteen Palestinian factions met in Cairo in February under the auspices of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate to work out concrete agreements for the holding of elections, but this meeting may have been more show than substance.

Under the latest proposal, elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council are to be held on May 22, for the Palestinian Authority Presidency on July 31, and for the Palestinian National Council (PLO) on August 31. At the same time, Hamas is presently holding its own internal elections for positions of power, including the political bureau that is currently headed by Ismael Haniyeh.

 The factions agreed that the Palestinian police forces would be exclusively in charge of securing the elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. They also agreed that an organizing committee and a court would be established to ensure that the elections are free and fair, and that all political prisoners be released. Abbas has in recent days signed a presidential decree that orders the release of all political prisoners.

The agreements call for ensuring the freedom to express opinions under the two rival Palestinian governments of Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza, and that security forces in both sectors would remain neutral vis-à-vis the elections.

In theory, these elections are years late, with the last round being held in 2006, and all attempts since to hold new elections having failed. In practice, Fatah kept delaying the elections due to political considerations, until Abbas issued a decree in January calling for new elections to be held in 2021.

Despite all of the above, the path to holding Palestinian elections remains filled with obstacles: Fundamental divisions remain between Fatah and Hamas, and there are a series of problematic, unresolved issues, such as Israel’s position on the elections, which could torpedo the entire process.

In recent weeks, Israel has conducted an intensive wave of arrests of Hamas operatives and leaders in the West Bank, including legislative council members. Hamas says this will not dent its determination to pursue the upcoming elections.

Palestinian sources stress the fact that the next round of talks is scheduled for March in Cairo as a reflection of the fact that divisions could not be resolved within the two days that the factions met in February, and that more time is needed to reach practical agreements to pave the path to elections.

The sources estimated that only when the first round of elections for the legislative council approach in May will the final decision be made on whether to proceed as planned.

Fatah sources have not ruled out the possibility in the absence of agreements and compromise on the substantial divisions that elections will again be suspended or delayed.

The fact that Abbas has announced dates for the elections should therefore not be seen in any way as a guarantee that they will go ahead as stated.

Ultimately, it is vital to keep in mind that all of the steps taken in the direction of elections are reversible, and that all progress thus far has been on the declarative and technical-administrative front.

It still remains highly uncertain that elections will go ahead. Several factors can derail the process at any time. It appears that Abbas is taking part in the elections process to ‘gain points’ vis-à-vis the new Biden administration in the U.S. and to present itself as a democratic Palestinian government. If this is the case, it is fair to assume that Abbas has planted ‘exit ramps’ that will allow him to leave the elections process under the pretext of major divisions with Hamas.

Abbas must be aware of the very real dangers to Fatah’s status in the West Bank in the event of a Hamas election victory, which could prepare the ground for a Hamas takeover of Palestinian institutions.  Palestinian sources have assessed that if Abbas is indeed serious about going  ‘all the way’ in the elections, he would be committing political suicide.

Israel has yet to make its position on the elections public, but it is fair to assume that the defense establishment is holding ongoing situation assessments and preparing multiple action paths to deal with a variety of scenarios. Abbas could use the pretext of an Israeli refusal to allow the elections to take place in East Jerusalem to back away from the process.


David Hacham served for 30 years in IDF intelligence, is a former Commander of Coordination of Govt. Activities in the Territories (COGAT) and was advisor for Arab Affairs to seven Israeli Ministers of Defense. Read full bio here.

Ten years since Iron Dome’s first interception, the system has revolutionized air defense

By SHachar Shohat

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Rafael, Israel’s national defense laboratory, is marking ten years to its Iron Dome air defense system intercepting its first enemy rocket in Israeli skies, since when it has revolutionized the world of rocket interceptions.

Today, the system has become a global brand, with countries around the world interested in Iron Dome and its proven capabilities. The U.S. Army has ordered two Iron Dome batteries as part of its deep examination of the system.

By any international benchmark, Rafael invests large amounts of funds in research and development to prepare itself for the future, and to prepare future building blocks that enable rapid technological breakthroughs that find expression in military systems. 

Iron Dome’s story began at the end of the Second Lebanon War, when Hezbollah fired some 4,000 rockets at Israel, which had no response to the threat.

The Israeli Air Force had total air superiority over Lebanon and was able, thanks to precise intelligence, to launch a brilliant opening strike at the start of the war, destroying Hezbollah’s mid-range rocket launchers.  However, the terror organization’s short-range rocket array was almost completely unaffected during the remainder of the war.

This event served as a wake-up call for the State of Israel.

 It removed several layers of resistance that until then had existed with regard to air defense solutions against this type of threat.

Objections included the argument that the only way of winning wars is through offense, not defense, and that it was better to deal ‘with the swamp, not the mosquitoes.’ The Second Lebanon War exposed this approach as being wholly ineffective. Subsequent conflicts, such as the 2008-2009 conflict with Hamas in the Gaza Strip (Operation Cast Lead), also upended this argument. The rate of enemy rocket fire remained high despite the IDF offensive, and the idea that attacking maneuvers alone would result in victory lost credibility.

The government could no longer tell the public that it had to absorb all of the rockets, damage, injuries and deaths, without any defensive systems.

Another objection was based on doubts concerning whether it was technologically possible to intercept these types of rockets. A third layer of resistance claimed that it would cost too much money to create this capability. Others claimed that the system would not be ready in time.

 Rafael stuck to its belief in its technological capability. Taking advantage of its close working relationship with the IDF, Rafael understood the precise operational needs. This effort was bolstered by the keen awareness that the system was being developed to protect the people of Israel, and that it would soon face real-world tests.

Out of fourteen suggested solutions, Israel chose Rafael’s Iron Dome system in 2007. Rafael came together with Israel Aerospace Industries subsidiary Elta, which designed the system’s radar, and the mPrest company, which was responsible for designing Iron Dome’s unique command and control and interface system.  

In less than five years after the decision was made, the first operational Iron Dome battery was handed off to the Israel Air Force’s Air Defense Array in 2011. 

This extraordinary short time frame was made possible through, among other things, the use of parallel development processes. Rather than first developing the system, passing it on to the client, and then waiting a long time for the client to become qualified for operational readiness, in Iron Dome’s case IAF air defenders were involved with the system from day one.

Air force personnel worked closely with developers, studying the system as it was being developed, and directly influencing its design. The speed was driven by the sense of urgency to get the system’s first battery out into the field as soon as possible to defend southern Israel from Gazan projectile attacks.

 In April 2011, Iron Dome made its first real-world interception. Since then, the system has gone on to intercept more than 2,500 enemy projectiles, achieving an interception rate of over 90 percent of projectiles headed toward populated areas in Israel.

The use of spiral development, in which developers look at the next innovation step to take with the system already working, means that Iron Dome undergoes ongoing upgrades. Iron Dome’s robust design, its many interceptors, and its radar capabilities give it the ability to take on unprecedented quantities of projectiles with success – despite enemy attempts to saturate the system.

 The Iron Dome of 2021 is not the same system that it was in 2011. Today’s system can work at sea, assist military forces that are launching ground offensives, protect national strategic sites, and deal with targets at higher and lower altitudes compared to ten years ago.

It can also intercept drones, and take on rapid low-flying targets.

Today, Iron Dome forms a vital part of Israel’s ability to conduct offense as well, since it defends bases that are essential for attacking enemy targets.

It stands guard against threats from the northern and southern fronts.

Rafael is now thinking about introducing inherent components into the system, such as laser technology. In addition, it is installing Artificial Intelligence capabilities to give Iron Dome the ability to learn and recognize new threats on its own.

As adversaries continue to develop rapid threats capable of complex flight paths, the challenge of remaining a step ahead of the enemy remains paramount.


Brigadier General Shohat concluded his service in the IDF as the Commander of the Israel Air Defense Forces. During that command position he oversaw the air defense component of Operation Protective Edge, 2014. Prior to that, he served as the Head of the IDF Reorganizational Efficiency Project from 2011-2012. Read full bio here.

The ICC’s decision has made clear: Israel needs a robust legal strategy

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By Daphne Richemond Barak & Oded Ranaan

The majority judges’ announcement that the Court has jurisdiction over the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem increases the chances of an investigation into crimes Israelis allegedly committed there. In an interview with "The Arena," international law expert Dr. Daphné Richemond-Barak explains that while the judges' decision is a worrisome development, Israel still has options – but only if it truly begins planning ahead.

On February 6th, 2021, the International Criminal Court announced that it has jurisdiction to investigate alleged war crimes committed in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem by Israelis and Palestinians since 2014.

In an in-depth interview, we discussed the new situation and possible paths of action for Israel with Dr. Daphné Richemond-Barak, Assistant Professor at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy, and Strategy, and an expert in international law.

A year in limbo

Q: The ICC’s announcement may have severe legal implications for senior Israeli politicians, government officials and military officers. Can you go back on the chain of events that led to this important moment?

“The announcement came over a year after the ICC’s Prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, announced in December 2019 that there is sufficient evidence to merit an investigation over acts committed on the territory of Palestine. Instead of moving ahead right away with an investigation, however, Bensouda decided to seek the view of the ICC’s Pre-trial Chamber judges on what constitutes the territory of Palestine – which she saw as including the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem. She didn’t have to seek the judges’ validation, but she did, and that started a lot of back-and-forth with them which lasted over a year.

“The Pre-trial Chamber’s decision – which embraces Bensouda’s own findings – now enables Bensouda, who is leaving her position in June, to seal her legacy with respect to this high-profile case. Determining the scope and specifics of the investigation, however, will probably be left to her successor, British barrister Karim Khan, who was elected a week after the Court's decision was made public.”

Q: Why did the Prosecutor chose to seek the judges’ opinions given that she wasn’t legally obligated to do so?

“She's had issues in the past with the Pre-Trial Chamber; incidentally, it also involved Israel because it was connected to an investigation on the events related to the Mavi Marmara incident in 2010. In 2013 the Comoros Islands, under whose flag the ship sailed, formally requested the Court to investigate what happened on board the ship, but Bensouda declined to open an investigation. This led to a political confrontation between her and the judges, who criticized her decision and even tried to get her to change her mind. She has since stuck to her guns, so they are not on the best possible terms.

“This might be the reason that led her this time around to try and get them on board. When you get people to participate and provide their own opinion, they are less likely to criticize you down the road. A lot of this has to do with internal ICC politics, as you can see.

“But there is another possible reason for her seeking the judges’ validation on what constitutes the territory of Palestine: to endow the investigation with the greatest possible legitimacy, it having been ‘endorsed’ by both the Prosecutor and the judges of the Pre-Trial Chamber. One thing is for sure, it is an unusual move and it is not readily evident why Bensouda chose that path.”

Q: So is the Prosecutor now on firm grounds to go ahead with the investigation of acts allegedly committed by Israelis on the territory of Palestine?

“The Court took a very simple route: since the UN General Assembly allowed Palestine to become a part to the Court’s Statute, the Court held that Palestine constitutes a state for purposes of the ICC proceedings – and such proceedings only. Interestingly, the majority decision emphasized on several occasions that this does not prejudge in any way on whether Palestine is a state, or what constitutes its territory. By doing so, the judges purposefully limited the scope of their findings.

“It also stands out that the judge presiding over this panel of three judges dissents on important aspects of the decision. According to Judge Kovács of Hungary, the territory of Palestine does not include ‘the territories occupied by Israel since 1967, namely Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem,’ as the majority opinion states. In Kovács’s opinion, the Court must take into account the Oslo Accords, which limited Palestinian sovereignty over some of these territories, such as [Israeli-controlled] 'Territory C'. And unlike the majority opinion, Kovács analyzes the Oslo Accords in great detail.

“For Israel, this dissent carried great weight: it weakens the majority opinion, which pales in legal rigor compared to Kovács’s opinion. It conveys the existence of significant disagreement within the bench, and, ultimately might make it more difficult for the Court to investigate acts that occurred in these two areas. But does it prevent the opening of an investigation? Certainly not.”

Law and politics, or just politics?

According to Richemond-Barak, the ICC legal process is heavily influenced by politics. “The judges’ decision”, she explains, “was first expected around the time of Israel’s announcement in the Spring of 2020 that it intends to annex the West Bank by July 1st of that year, having received the thumbs-up from the Trump administration. In the end, a potential annexation was nixed – officially in favor of forging diplomatic ties with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and, later, additional Arab and Muslim countries. As July 1st came and went, and annexation did not take place, momentum for a decision faded.

“But if anyone still questioned the significance of the political undercurrents behind this process, the eventual publication of the decision – less than two weeks after President Biden’s inauguration – cleared any doubts. The Court had reasons to fear the Trump administration’s reaction to the decision, which had previously imposed sanctions on Bensouda herself, so it waited. This conduct doesn’t reflect terribly well on the idea of a court of law, driven solely by the ideal of justice and operating undeterred from the pressures of the world around it.”

Q: Now that the judges have published their decision on the question of jurisdiction, do you think Bensouda will advance opening a formal investigation? What other considerations may potentially affect her decision?

“My sense is that she can now leave office having brought this critical preliminary stage to completion. I don’t see her taking any further steps currently, except perhaps formally opening the investigation now that she has, so to speak, received the judges’ blessing. But Khan, her successor, will be the one to actively shape the investigation by deciding which specific acts to investigate, how many indictments to issue and against whom, et cetera.

“I should add that this decision comes on the backdrop of an ongoing crisis of legitimacy for the Court. The institution has recently been scrutinized by an independent committee of experts, tasked with writing a report on issues regarding the ICC as a workplace, but also, in the broader sense, to forecast what the future holds for it. As a relatively young institution, the ICC has yet to carve a role for itself in the international landscape and assert its integrity and credibility. I fear that the latest decision, strikingly weak on the law, may not have been a step in the right direction.”

The Israel connection

Despite the Pre-trial Chamber’s decision, any possible sanctions against Israelis are still uncertain and will likely not occur in the next few years. Nevertheless, Richemond-Barak warns that Israel cannot rely on external factors to solve its issues vis-à-vis the ICC.

“The newly elected Prosecutor is unlikely to shield Israel from scrutiny. I already mentioned that Bensouda paid a heavy political price by declining not to open an investigation into the Mavi Marmara incident.

“Would another prosecutor have made the same decision? It’s hard to say. Any situation that involves Israel always attracts significant attention. But even on the Palestinian issue Bensouda took her time and didn't open the investigations right away, so theoretically Khan could be more aggressive and speed up the process. However, he’s likely to fully review the information before him before making any further decision on this investigation.”

Q: What legal angle do you expect the Court to pursue going forward, and why?

“In my opinion, the most dangerous legal grounds from Israel’s point of view are those that relate to the settlements. The ICC’s mandate is based on the principle of complementarity – it only has jurisdiction to investigate and prosecute alleged crimes when states have either been unable or unwilling to do so themselves in a fair manner. The ICC complements states in administering justice, it does not replace them.

“Building settlements is part of the policy of the State of Israel. The Israeli government therefore cannot claim that it is investigating and looking into potential violations of international law that relate to the settlement enterprise.

“This is an area is where Israel is on weaker legal ground, as complementarity and the robust Israel judicial system cannot shield it from the Court’s jurisdiction. Israel should pay careful attention to this matter. There might be a sense that settlement building does not amount to a crime that ‘shocks the conscience of humanity.’ It would certainly have to meet the gravity threshold set under the Court’s statute in order to go forward. For now, however, the recent decision of the judges makes no reference to the settlement enterprise.”

Q: In your opinion, what approach will the new Biden administration likely take vis-à-vis the ICC?

“President Biden is unlikely to go back to the relatively warm relationship that President Obama had with the Court, mostly because right now there's also a looming investigation against US personnel in Afghanistan. It’s important to remember that the US’s position used to be aligned in many ways to that of Israel: Both states chose not to become party to this institution. This explains why the State Department has expressed ‘serious concerns about the ICC’s attempts to exercise its jurisdiction over Israeli personnel’ shortly after the Court’s announcement.

“The State Department also stressed that Palestine does not qualify as a sovereign state. This is an important statement, but Israel should not take it as offering a blanket guarantee of support – particularly on the delicate issue of the settlements, which sidesteps the principle of complementarity and is less likely to be blocked by a Biden administration.”

“Other important states, such as Canada and Australia, have stepped forward in recent days in a similar spirit – primarily objecting to having the question of Palestinian statehood and the delimitation of Palestinian territory resolved by the ICC, instead of bilateral negotiations between the parties. In this regard, it’s important to reiterate that the finding that Palestine is a state within the framework of the ICC does not extend to the status of Palestine outside that context – for example, at the United Nations or before other international judicial institutions.”

Policy recommendations for Israel

Q: Since no one can imagine the current government, or future ones, formally stopping the settlements or dismantling them, what can Israel do now to defuse this situation?

“It's important to stress that since the famous (or infamous) Goldstone Report was issued in 2009, Israel has invested considerable resources and established new departments and processes to tackle international legal challenges. And Israel has done well by publishing Attorney General Mandelblit’s comprehensive report around the same time as the Bensouda published her own in December 2019, providing a snapshot of Israel’s position on the opening of an investigation by the ICC.

“What can Israel do today, ahead of a possible ICC decision to investigate? First, try to shape – or participate in shaping – the priorities of the ICC in the coming five to ten years. I’m not sure what channels of communication exist between states – especially non-party states like Israel – and a prosecutor regarding the scope of an investigation, but I see an added value in maintaining dialogue.

"As a general rule, I am in favor of multilateral engagement. I know decision-makers in Israel don't necessarily share this view, for reasons that range from sheer fatalism – 'it won’t have any impact anyway' – to the fear of conferring too much legitimacy to highly politicized international institutions. In the past, Israel declined to cooperate with commissions of inquiry established by the UN Human Rights Council or with the International Court of Justice when it examined the legality of the security fence. I, however, prefer when Israel lays down its narrative and arguments, directly or indirectly, and makes its case.

“Second, Israel should seek independent advice from leading legal experts. The Palestinians have been doing this for over a decade and have crafted a very smart, creative, and impressive legal strategy when it comes to the ICC and other international bodies. It’s clear that Palestine sought the advice of very clever international lawyers in this respect, who have suggested innovative interpretations of the statute of the Court. Getting access to the ICC was entirely out of reach for the Palestinians only 10 or 12 years ago, but they succeeded, and so to some extent the Court’s recent decision demonstrates that such smart and consistent legal strategy pays off.

“The conclusion is that Israel should seriously seek the advice of people who are going to devote more than five minutes asking themselves what else could be done. They need to spend weeks and months together planning a strategy of proactive engagement. It doesn’t come overnight. The Palestinians have proved that this strategy works and there's no reason why Israel shouldn’t be doing the same. Israel can learn from this.

“I find that too often in this type of decision-making, Israel involves actors at the political level and ministerial levels that can’t agree with one another. In addition, the view that legal processes remain separate from diplomatic and strategic ones remains too prevalent. The political and legal aspects are closely connected.”

Q: So formulate a strategy, not merely tactics.

“Yes. Israel is often busy extinguishing fires, on both the military battlefield and the legal ‘battlefield.’ Its needs instead to devise a long-term plan regarding international institutions, particularly judicial institutions such as the ICC. Dealing with problems as they come is not enough – it’s time to ask the hard questions: where does Israel see itself in the legal arena in five or ten years? What are the objectives and how does it get there? The recent ICC decision demonstrates the necessity behind such a mindset.”


Dr. Daphné Richemond-Barak is Assistant Professor at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy, and Strategy, and Senior Researcher at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at the IDC Herzliya. She is also an Adjunct Scholar at the Modern War Institute at West Point and a publishing Expert at The MirYam Institute.

Oded Raanan is Co-founder and Editor-in-Chief of “The Arena”. Before joining the Abba Eban Institute, he worked for the foreign news desk at "Ha'aretz". He holds an M.Phil in International Relations from the Central European University (CEU) in Budapest, and an M.A. and a B.A. in Middle Eastern Studies, both from Ben-Gurion University of the Negev.

President Biden: Promise & Pitfalls

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By Justin Pozmanter

There is a new administration in Washington. When it comes to Israel, commentators across the spectrum are hard at work telling their readers and listeners what to think. Some say it is the dawn of a bright new day, others seem to think the sky is falling. However, despite what we all think may happen next, we need to wait for concrete actions before passing judgment.

The Trump administration was arguably the most pro-Israel in history. In this context “pro-Israel” means generally in agreement with the views of the democratically elected government of the state of Israel.

The actions taken by the Trump administration related to Israel were in line with the direction of the Republican Party, which has trended more and more pro-Israel over the last two decades. The Democratic Party, which has traditionally been just as supportive as the Republicans, has generally trended in the opposite direction, particularly since 2009.

However, despite this trend, very few Democratic voters are ideologues whose views reflect strong feelings toward Israeli policy. This is a key mistake people make when following this issue. The actions of Israel, or the current Prime Minister, generally do not guide partisan attitudes in the United States.

Polls show that Democrats dislike Prime Minister Netanyahu and Republicans like him, but it is doubtful that a significant percentage of respondents could site a single difference in the Prime Minister’s policies as compared to any of his opponents.

How members of each party view the Israeli Prime Minister has more to do with their relationship with the current President, or recent Presidents, and how the President publicly frames the relationship, than Israeli policies.

This is not to say Israel is blameless when there are rifts. Israeli actions, and just as often rhetoric, play a very prominent role in how administration officials, from the President down the line, as well as Congressional leaders, perceive and publicly address the US-Israel relationship.

The current trend of the Democratic party places an outsized importance on the Biden administration when it comes to the long-term strength of the US-Israel relationship.

Today, there is nothing that could be more beneficial to the long-term health of the US-Israel relationship than a Democratic administration perceived as strongly pro-Israel. While the attitude of party leadership has always been important, it is exacerbated in today’s era of hyper-partisanship.

Given the feelings of nearly every Democrat towards President Trump, the prevailing instinct is to oppose anything he supported. The Biden administration will distance itself from the Trump agenda almost across the board. Hopefully, they will realize that many of the Trump administration’s policies related to Israel and the region – recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, sovereignty in the Golan, leaving the JCPOA, and spearheading regional peace and normalization – are positives for Israel, the United States, and the region.  

While a Democratic President can have a broader and deeper impact on Democratic voters than anyone else, maintaining bipartisan support for Israel does not fall on President Biden and Democrats alone.

While some Democratic members of Congress have taken outwardly hostile stands against Israel, and in some cases Jews more generally, Republicans angling for pro-Israel votes by lumping all Democratic leaders, most of whom are generally pro-Israel, with the handful of hostile members is unhelpful.

Bipartisan support is not simply a talking point. It is indispensable to the ongoing strength of the bilateral relationship and a critical aspect of Israel’s strategic outlook. Therefore, everyone who cares about Israel should be thankful for support from Democrats and Republicans alike.

As things stand today, we do not know exactly where President Biden stands on specific issues. It has been over a dozen years since his last Senate vote.

In President Biden’s first foreign policy address at the State Department on February 4, he did not mention Israel or the Iranian nuclear program. His only reference to the Middle East was a few sentences related to the civil war in Yemen.

There have been a few indications since taking office, most clearly coming from his Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, in a wide-ranging interview on CNN.

Secretary Blinken’s answers were a mixed bag. He was positive on Jerusalem, the Abraham Accords and by stating the administration recognizes that only Israel and the Palestinians can negotiate final status issues, he signaled that there will be no grand American plan neither side can accept.

However, he also fell into the false equivalencies of “unilateral actions on both sides” and while recognizing current Israeli control of the Golan, he also left open the possibility Israeli sovereignty could be called into question in the future.

There almost certainly will be disagreements on issues such as settlement construction. However, it appears the Biden administration, while perhaps not as accommodating to Israeli positions as its predecessor, is signaling a more realistic approach than that of the Obama administration.

On the JCPOA, Secretary Blinken’s comments were mostly, though not entirely, negative. It is clear the administration would like to rejoin the deal. This would set up a confrontation with Israel, regardless of who wins the Israeli election in March. However, despite the recent announcement of a willingness to initiate talks to re-enter the deal, there are also some signs that the approach to Iran will not be quite as accommodating as that of the Obama administration.

As with everything else, thus far the administration is simply signaling what they plan to do. Rarely does any administration do precisely what they say in their first 100 days in office, either because of a change of heart or changes in circumstances. Therefore, everyone who cares about Israel and the US-Israel relationship should wait and see what policies the administration ultimately pursues. There are reasons for major concern, but there are also reasons for optimism. The Biden administration certainly will not be the Trump administration, but it is also unlikely to simply be a third term of the Obama administration.


Justin Pozmanter is a former foreign policy advisor to Minister Tzachi Hanegbi. Before making Aliyah, he worked at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and practiced law. Read full bio here.

Will fourth elections lead to a fifth?

By Danielle Roth-Avneri

On March 23, Israelis will go to the polls for the fourth time in the past eighteen months, amid fears that a fifth round of elections could be around the corner.

By this point, repeated elections are seen by many disillusioned Israelis as just the latest sign of a failing political system, which adds to pre-existing hardships – economic, health, or educational – generated by the coronavirus pandemic.

Elections today have come to represent a cycle of political instability, leading many citizens to roll their eyes in cynicism and sorrow.

Question marks hang over whether any party will be able to put together a 61-member coalition required to form a coalition and the prospect of a fifth election since April 2019  is not far-fetched. 

Unlike the past three elections, which revolved around the sole question of whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should remain in his position or not, another dimension has emerged in this campaign in the form of a new right-wing political force.

Gideon Sa’ar broke away from the Likud in order to challenge Netanyahu and he and his New Hope party are taking voters away from Likud, as well as from the centrist Blue and White party, once heralded as the party that could oust Netanyahu, yet today is fighting to just get over the electoral threshold.

Sa’ar also has the potential to take votes away from his right-wing rival Naftali Bennett and his Yamina party, while center-left parties, such as Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, the second-largest party today according to polls, are prepared to work with him.

For those unwilling to vote for Netanyahu because of the criminal indictments against him, Sa’ar is the natural alternative. And yet, Sa’ar and New Hope have a problem – they have stalled and are struggling to market themselves as the right-wing alternative to Netanyahu.

While Sa’ar was able to take moderate Likud rightwing Knesset Members with him, such as Ze’ev Elkin, and Yifat Shasha-Biton, the popular chair of the Knesset’s Coronavirus committee who used her position to challenge many of the government’s decisions regarding the pandemic, the party has lost momentum according to polling.

Still, the New Hope party has a full month to get its act together, and that is a long time in the Israeli political campaign cycle.

All Likud’s rivals share a common fear, namely that Netanyahu will take advantage of the successful vaccination program and grow in electoral strength. According to internal Likud polls, the party is on track to capture 33 Knesset seats, compared to current polling in which it averages 29 Knesset seats.

Meanwhile, on the center and left side of the political map, the big winner is Yair Lapid, who is polling consistently at around 18 seats and is positioned as the second-largest party in the Knesset. Lapid is benefiting from the fact that Netanyahu is deliberately ignoring Sa’ar, in order to avoid giving him media limelight, and is focusing his attacks on him. This serves Lapid’s interests well. 

  Lapid’s campaign platform offers the alternative of a ‘sane government’ and focuses on what he describes as the failed management of the coronavirus crisis.

Netanyahu helped oversee a hook-up between far-right figures Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, creating a bloc that could potentially prevent an opposition coalition from forming, if the list passes the threshold. But doing so may push other right-wing voters, repelled by Smotrich and Ben Gvir, to Bennett’s Yamina party.

 This leads to the question of who, exactly, is Naftali Bennett? Because it is Bennett who will shape the fate of the next government. He has not ruled out sitting with Netanyahu, but refused to do so in the previous elections.

Bennet may well be the primary kingmaker in the coming elections. Netanyahu will offer him any portfolio he pleases, including the Defense Ministry, which is most dear to Bennett, as well as the Justice Ministry.

 In the event of another tie, the key to the formation of the next coalition could well lie with defectors that move from one party to another –  as Knesset Member Gadi Yevarkan did when he ditched Blue and White and moved to Likud in 2020.

Netanyahu will search for more defectors and seek out weak links in opposition parties. The number of such defections could mean the difference between forming a government and going to fifth elections.


Danielle Roth-Avneri is a journalist and reporter on political matters, as well as an editor for the Israel Hayom/Israel Todaynewspaper, the most widely circulated publication in Israel. Read full bio here.

The ICC Palestine decision: Future challenges

By Alexander Knoops

Professor, Politics of International Law, University of Amsterdam

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In its February 5, 2021 decision,  the International Criminal Court Pre-Trial Chamber assumes territorial jurisdiction in the situation of Palestine, while ruling that this extends to the territories occupied by Israel since 1967. This ruling reflects two fundamental questions: The first being whether the ICC is constitutionally competent to determine matters of statehood, and the second, whether the Oslo Agreement and its clauses, which limit the scope of Palestinian jurisdiction, are pertinent to the determination of the ICC’s territorial jurisdiction in Palestine.

Both questions were answered in favor of accepting the ICC’s jurisdiction; yet the reasoning of the majority of the three judges is questionable from a legal perspective.

As to the first question, the Chamber abstained from ruling on the status of Palestine under public international law, especially when it concerns the principles set forth by the  Montevideo Convention, which defines the basic criteria of statehood. It is noteworthy that the Office of the Prosecutor did acknowledge in its initial request that Palestine is not a state under this convention.

Instead of applying these principles on Palestine, the Chamber held that the accession procedure under the Rome Statute with which Palestine became a state party on April 1, 2015, was sufficient to qualify as a state. It further contemplated that a determination as to whether that entity fulfilled the prerequisites of statehood under general international law is not required.

Yet, this accession procedure is only conducted at the Assembly of State Parties (ASP) and operates within the Rome Statute as a purely administrative procedure, akin to the United Nations Secretary General (UNSG). Such procedures function merely as a depositary of accession instruments. Equal to the UNSG, the ASP is not called upon to make substantive determinations when it concerns statehood under public international law. Moreover, both the ASP and the UNSG are purely political organs and do therefore not exercise independent judicial control, which is up to a court of law. Hence the approach of the ICC negates this judicial supervisory role.

Since jurisdiction is at the fundament of the criminal trial, no relaxation on the principles of statehood should be accepted, not at the least merely on the basis of non-binding instruments such as resolutions or decisions rendered by the UNGA or ASP.

As to the second question, the majority of the ICC Chamber also abstained from ascertaining whether the Oslo Agreement would have a relevant impact on the court’s jurisdiction. However, this view negates two important aspects.

 The first being that international legal instruments reveal that Palestine has never assumed exclusive possessory interest or power in the West Bank, Gaza Strip or East Jerusalem. As a matter of fact, since 1918 there has been no state able to convincingly defend an undisputed and legally sound sovereignty claim over those areas on part of any state.

The second aspect pertains to the fact that the court underestimates the legal relevance of the Oslo Process which in 1995 resulted in an interim agreement; control over the West Bank was divided between the PA and the Israeli military government under a three-region regime and did not contain a termination clause, while neither party terminated it. Its preamble even mentions that this process is “irreversible”. Notably, the Oslo Principles were embraced by several other legal instruments, such as Security Council Resolution 2334. The majority decision seems to have misapprehended that this Agreement is still binding on the Parties which should have been transpired in the decision.

The court’s reference to UN resolution 67/19,  accepting the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination, does not alter this conclusion, bearing in mind that this resolution is of a political nature. An analysis of the majority decision learns that the court did not perform its role as the principal legal gatekeeper of the rule of law.

What are the future challenges? Notwithstanding a “State” not being mentioned in the Rome Statute as having the explicit right to appeal such decision, the right to appeal can also apply to “either Party”. Several commentaries on the Rome Statute suggest that “either Party” might embrace not only the suspect and the Prosecutor, but also States. It is therefore defendable that the State of Israel is entitled to appeal this jurisdictional ruling, despite its absence at the proceedings until so far. In any event, it could, once the Prosecutor would proceed with a formal investigation, challenge the admissibility of this case in light of its own investigation into Operation “Protective Edge”. Israel still has a legal arsenal to its disposal if it wishes to challenge both the jurisdiction and admissibility of this case.


G.G.J. Alexander Knoops is professor by special appointment of Politics of International Law at the University of Amsterdam and visiting Professor of International Criminal Law at Shandong University (Jinan, China).

Long Form Analysis: The ICC Palestine Ruling

By Eli Bar-On

DEPUTY MILITARY ADVOCATE GENERAL, IDF (2012-2015)

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In the chronicles of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, February 5, 2021 will be remembered as the day in which the Pre-Trial Chamber of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague officially paved the way to the criminalization of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.

In order to understand the chain of events that led to the Chamber’s decision, let us take a few steps back.

On November 29, 2012, the UN General Assembly adopted Resolution 67/19 that accorded 'Palestine' Non-Member Observer State status.

Following this resolution, the UN Office of Legal Affairs dispatched a memorandum stating that 'Palestine' would now be able to become party to any treaties that are open to ‘any State’ or ‘all States’ deposited with the Secretary-General of the UN. Using this legal opinion, the Palestinians indeed acceded to several international treaties.

On January 2015, 'Palestine' acceded to the Rome Statute, which is the foundational document of the ICC. On April 1, 2015, 'Palestine' was officially welcomed as a State Party to the Statute. 'Palestine' informed the Court that it is delegating its jurisdiction to the ICC over crimes committed on its territory or by its nationals since June 13, 2014.

Interestingly, but not coincidentally, June 13, 2014 is the day after the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers by Hamas operatives in the West Bank, an event that put in motion an escalation that eventually led to the outbreak of the Gaza war in July 2014.

In January 2015, a few days after 'Palestine’s accession to the Statute, Fatou Bensouda, the Prosecutor of the ICC decided to launch a preliminary examination of the 'Situation in Palestine' since June 13, 2014.

Almost five years later, on December 2019, the Prosecutor concluded the examination and found what she claimed was reasonable basis to proceed with an investigation into the 'Situation in Palestine', based on the belief that both Israeli forces and Hamas members committed war crimes during the 2014 Gaza hostilities. In addition, she raised suspicions that Israeli officials committed war crimes of transferring Israeli civilians into the West Bank (i.e., the Israeli settlements); and lastly, that Israeli soldiers committed crimes using lethal and non-lethal means during the disturbances near the Gaza border with Israel that began in March 2018.

The Prosecutor then asked the Chamber to make a ruling over the scope of the territorial jurisdiction of the ICC in 'Palestine', and to acknowledge its jurisdiction over the entire territory of the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza.

While Israel, which is not a member in the ICC, decided not to take part in the proceedings in the Chamber, Israel's Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit published a highly detailed memorandum regarding the Prosecutor's reference to Chamber. The Attorney General argued that the ICC does not have the jurisdiction to hold any proceedings that emanate from 'Palestine'’s referral of jurisdiction to the Court, since 'Palestine' is not and never was a State according to the binding criteria in international law.

Resolution 67/19 of the UN General Assembly, which served as the foundation for the Palestinian accession to the Rome Statute, was only meant to administer 'Palestine'’s representation within the UN. It is a declaratory document that represents a political aspiration for a future Palestinian State, and like all UN General Assembly resolutions, it is not legally binding. The UN Secretary General at the time made clear that his act of circulating the Palestinian accession document to the Statute does not have any ramifications regarding the question of Palestinian statehood.

Mandelblit further asserted that 'Palestine' does not have effective control over the West Bank and Gaza, a crucial precondition for becoming a State. The Palestinian claim that Israel is occupying these areas only acknowledges the Palestinian lack of sovereignty. The right of Palestinians to self-determination should not be conflated with any claim to statehood, the Attorney General stressed.

If the Palestinians don't have the State sovereignty, the Attorney General contended, they can also not delegate to the ICC any jurisdiction to prosecute. There's also no 'territory of' a State (a term used in the Statute) over which the Court can exercise such a jurisdiction. The term which is frequently used in international discourse, “the occupied Palestinian territory,” is strictly political and has no legal ramifications on the question of sovereign title.

Finally, the Attorney General indicated that the Oslo Accords between the Israelis and the Palestinians manifestly stipulate that the Palestinians have no criminal jurisdiction over Area C of the West Bank, Jerusalem, and Israeli nationals  – and obviously cannot delegate to the Court a jurisdiction they do not have.

Following the Prosecutor's referral to the Chamber, the Chamber received dozens of amici curiae (friends of the court) legal opinions in support of both the Israeli and the Palestinian positions. Numerous renowned experts in international law and no less than seven countries (the Czech Republic, Austria, Australia, Hungary, Germany, Brazil, and Uganda) supported the Israeli position that the Court has no jurisdiction over the matter.

The Chamber's decision was not unanimous, but rather decided by Majority, with the Presiding Judge, Judge Kovács, writing a dissenting opinion.

The Majority opinion first reviewed the question whether 'Palestine' can be considered a 'State' for the purposes of recognizing ICC jurisdiction to prosecute crimes that were committed in its territory, and held that 'Palestine' indeed qualifies as such.

The Chamber ruled that the Statute refers to States that are Parties to the Statute and does not require a determination as to whether those 'States' fulfil the preconditions of statehood under general international law. The Majority's opinion indicates that 'Palestine' acceded to the Statute according to the customary procedure to do so and accepted the jurisdiction of the Court with respect to the crimes referred to in the Statute. Any dispute regarding their accession should have been negotiated and if not resolved, be referred to the Assembly of States Parties (only Canada rejected the Palestinian accession to the Court). 'Palestine' has been an active member in the Assembly of State Parties to the Court ever since its accession. The Chamber also contended that it would be ineffective to allow an entity to become a State Party to the Statute, but to limit the Statute’s inherent effects over it.

The bottom line is that the Chamber decided that, under these circumstances, it may not review or challenge the eligibility of 'Palestine' to accede to the Rome Statute.

The Chamber stresses that any territorial determination for the purpose of defining the Court's territorial jurisdiction for criminal purposes has no bearing on the scope of 'Palestine'’s territory. This jurisdiction is set for the sole purpose of establishing individual criminal responsibility under the Rome Statute. The Chamber underlines that it cannot decide whether an entity is a 'State' according to general international law.

After concluding that 'Palestine' is a State for the purpose of the discussion, the Majority opinion discusses the delimitation of its territory over which the ICC can exercise jurisdiction.

The Chamber notes that in Resolution 67/19, the UN General Assembly 'reaffirmed the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination and to independence in their State of Palestine on the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967.’

The Majority's opinion mentions that according to the Rome Statute, the application and interpretation of the law by the Court must be consistent with internationally recognized human rights, including the right to self-determination.

Hence, the Chamber concluded that the Court’s territorial jurisdiction in the 'Situation in Palestine' extends to the territories occupied by Israel since 1967, namely the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza.

In this regard, the Chamber stresses that it is neither making a decision on a border dispute under international law nor prejudging the question of any future borders.

The Chamber then proceeds to discuss the argument that the Palestinians could not delegate criminal jurisdiction to the ICC over Israeli nationals, Area C, or Jerusalem, since they do not have such a jurisdiction according to the Oslo Accords.

The Chamber asserts that this argument is not relevant to the scope of the Court’s territorial jurisdiction in 'Palestine'. The Rome Statute has specific arrangements to deal with any obligations of a State Party under international law that conflict with its obligations under the Statute.

Finally, the Chamber emphasizes that its conclusions relate only to the initiation of the investigation by the Prosecutor, and any interested party, including a State or a suspect, will be able to challenge issues of jurisdiction again in the future.

Yet Judge Kovács, in his dissenting opinion, says that the formal accession of 'Palestine' to the Court, and resolution 67/19 of the General Assembly, should not be read separately from other international law instruments that referred to the Oslo Accords, and that promoted peace initiatives between Israel and the Palestinians.

These include the Road Map of the Quartet, as well as many resolutions of the UN General Assembly, the Security Council, and other UN organs. The resolutions of the General Assembly are non-binding in nature, even if adopted by Majority voting. There are no binding international law instruments regarding Palestinian statehood.

The Prosecutor's request and the Majority opinion referred to non-binding documents but failed to mention that these documents also stress the necessity of establishing borders by way of internationally promoted negotiations. It is obviously premature, in Judge Kovács' opinion, to speak of a fully-fledged 'Palestinian State' and of its territory. It would be more appropriate to refer to 'Palestine' as a nascent State, recognized by some countries, whose borders still need to be negotiated, and the Oslo Accords still play a role in determining its authorities.

As to the scope of the territory in which the Prosecutor may exercise her investigative authorities, Judge Kovács contends that this should be based on the same circumstances that would allow 'Palestine', as a State Party, to assert jurisdiction over such crimes under its legal system, i.e., according to its own criminal jurisdiction in the Oslo Accords.

This means that when the Prosecutor concludes that continuing an investigation may trespass the limits of 'Palestine'’s competences in this complex criminal law regime, she should request Israel's consent.

There are many problematic issues with the Majority's opinion and they are mostly covered in Judge Kovács' opinion.

The question of whether and how an entity becomes an internationally recognized State in international law is complex and intricate. The Majority's analysis on this issue is almost technical, relying on the process of accession to the Court as the sole criterion in deciding whether 'Palestine' can be a State that can refer its jurisdiction to the ICC.

The UN Secretary General as a depositary of the Statute made it clear that he served a technical role by circulating the Palestinian accession document, and that this should not be understood as having any legal ramifications on Palestinian statehood.

He relied on a legal memorandum that referred to an option possessed by the Palestinians to accede to international treaties, emanating from the status that Resolution 67/19 accorded to them.

But there was nothing in Resolution 67/19 or the legal memorandum that leads to recognition of 'Palestine' meeting the legal standards of becoming a State according to general international law.

Nor is there a precedent in international law for the creation of a State on a territory under occupation. As Judge Kovács rightfully claims, the Majority's decision practically outsourced the judicial discretion to the UN, using Resolution 67/19 and the legal memorandum (which was meant to be an internal memo) as fait accompli acts.

The Majority did so without delving into the whole process that led to the UN Resolution and the dilemmas that surrounded it  –  which Judge Kovács did. He summarized his research as follows: "What can be deduced with absolute certainty from the text and the history of the adoption of Resolution 67/19 is that the great Majority of States represented at the General Assembly wanted to upgrade Palestine’s formal status in the UN and show political support for its endeavors by giving a political impetus, while waiting for the outcome of the initiated procedure of admission as a full member.”

And so, an array of 'technical' acts creates a situation in which 'Palestine' enjoys a status that should be reserved to sovereign States, without meeting the required standards for this to happen. This outcome does not comport with the most basic foundation on which the ICC was established, that only sovereign States that are recognized as such in international law can delegate sovereign jurisdiction to the ICC.

Another problem lies with the Majority's decision to recognize the entirety of 'the Occupied Palestinian Territories' as the territory over which the Court can exercise its jurisdiction. In doing so, the Majority relies on the right of the Palestinians to self-determination as a human right that the Court needs to apply in its rulings. It is not entirely clear why the Majority decided to use international law sources that are external to the Statute in this respect, but refused to do so while determining the first issue of 'Palestine' being a State Party to the Statute. Anyway, it is hard to understand the Majority's decision to treat the demarcation of the territory issue, one of the most controversial and sensitive issues throughout the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, in such a simplistic manner. As Judge Kovács' said, "to accept as determinative a unilateral statement concerning the exact demarcation of a territory that is known to be the object of a very slowly progressing and frequently suspended series of negotiations, would have required at least an explanation".

The Majority's decision to simply ignore the argument regarding the Oslo Accords and their implication on the limited jurisdiction that the Palestinians can delegate to the Court is a big flaw in its decision.

It remains unclear what the current status of the Oslo Accords is in the Majority's opinion. The Accords stood  – and still stand  – at the heart of the relationship between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. The Majority regard the argument concerning the Accords as a technical issue that might interfere with future attempts of the Prosecutor to get assistance in her investigation from the Palestinians, due to conflicting obligations they will have between the Rome Statute and the Oslo Accords.

But the core of this argument deals with the very essence of the competence to refer the jurisdiction to the Court in the first place. Judge Kovács' analysis, again, makes more legal sense and offers a way for the Prosecutor to investigate while accommodating both the Statute and the Oslo Accords.

It should also be said that the Majority's clarification, according to which any interested party will be able to challenge issues of jurisdiction again in the future, emasculates the Prosecutor's intention of taking such issues off the table in advance.

The ramifications of the decision for Israel

It is easy to understand why Israel, as the national homeland of the Jewish People, with the horrendous atrocities that befell it in World War II, was one of the main proponents of the establishment of the ICC. Unfortunately, political manipulations that dragged the Statute of the ICC away from its intended course made Israel decide not to become a State Party in the Court. Israel's concern that the Court will be weaponized for political purposes is now materializing, with the Chamber's decision to allow the Prosecutor to investigate Israel without its consent.

The Court, established as a court of last resort to prosecute the most heinous atrocities, was never meant to target democracies such as Israel. It is worrisome that Israel, as a democracy with a heritage of respect for international law, and Hamas as a terror organization that defies international law, are being assessed by the Prosecutor on an equal footing.

The Chamber's decision should not be taken lightly or disregarded by the Israeli government. Although the Chamber repeatedly emphasizes that its decision has no legal ramifications on the legal claims regarding the Palestinian statehood, there is no doubt that this decision will be cited as another landmark in the Palestinian entity’s evolution towards becoming a State.

The decision is also clearly a very concerning milestone in the ongoing campaign to delegitimize Israel. While there is still a long way to go before any indictments against Israeli officials will be submitted to the Court, the gate is now open for the Prosecutor to start her investigation against those officials and even issue warrants for their arrest.

Such warrants can be issued secretly and every State that is a member of the Court is obliged to enforce them. It is easy to imagine the drama that will shroud a surprising arrest of a senior Israeli official somewhere around the globe. Such a reality will significantly restrict the movements of many Israeli officials (it should be noted that the investigations will probably focus on political leaders and senior military officers and not on low-ranking soldiers or government officials).

The Prosecutor of the court will end her tenure in June this year. Her replacement has not been named yet. Her successor will have an independent agenda regarding the issue, for better or for worse, regarding Israel.

When considering the priorities of the Office of the Prosecutor and the way to move forward, Judge Kovács' concluding remark will surely be taken into consideration: "I am convinced that without the cooperation of the directly interested States in the present and truly complicated, over-politicized situation, the Prosecutor will have no real chance of preparing a trial-ready case or cases. This should go hand in hand with national prosecutions when needed and according to the rule on complementarity".

In this respect of complementarity (meaning, the priority that States have over the ICC to investigate and prosecute crimes committed by their nationals or in their territories), we should bear in mind that Israel has a robust system to examine and investigate violations of the Laws of Armed Conflict – a fact that was confirmed by the detailed report of Israel’s Turkel Commission that was set up to investigate the Israeli raid on the Turkish Gaza flotilla, and which reviewed Israel's investigative mechanisms.

The Prosecutor recently decided not to launch an investigation against British military personnel for alleged crimes committed in the war in Iraq. The Prosecutor satisfied herself with the existence and operation of UK's investigative mechanisms, although the British investigations did not end in criminal prosecutions. Given the robustness of Israel's mechanisms, the British example is undoubtedly a reassuring sign as far as the Prosecutor's investigation concerns the military operations of the IDF.

On the other hand, the Prosecutor's decision to investigate Israel's settlement activities in the West Bank and East Jerusalem should be a major concern for Israel. Israel never considered its settlement to be illegal, and both left-wing and right-wing governments throughout the years have invested in the promotion of this project.

Israel's Supreme Court has been scrutinizing thousands of cases regarding the settlements, dealing with complex legal issues of international, administrative and constitutional law ever since Israel seized the West Bank in 1967. But Israel has never criminally prosecuted any acts relating to the settlements because it fundamentally rejects the idea that these are illegal under international law. Thus, Israel will not be able to claim that complementarity considerations should label the settlement cases inadmissible at the Court, and it now faces a fierce legal battle in this arena. The Chamber's reference to UN Security Council Resolution 2334 that condemns the Israeli settlement activity is an ominous sign in this respect.

 

What should Israel do now?

Israel should launch multiple, simultaneous efforts in the diplomatic and legal spheres.

Diplomatically, Israel should remember that it is not alone in this battle. During the proceedings before the Chamber, it has gained the support of seven important States that supported its legal views before the Chamber.

After the Chamber's decision was published, the U.S. State Department and the Foreign Ministers of both Canada and Australia rejected it.

Israel should work closely with the Biden administration and coordinate responses to the Chamber's decision. The ongoing investigation against the activities of U.S. forces in Afghanistan makes Israeli and American interests (and indeed, those of all other Western democracies) in this respect very similar.

Israel should also launch an organized public diplomacy effort to engage in a dialogue with diverse influential audiences around the world and present to them its articulate legal positions.

Israeli officials should refrain from attacking the Court and its officials. Such attacks are not constructive in any way and can only antagonize Israel's friends in the world. This would be especially counter-productive at this sensitive time, in which the process of the nomination of the next Prosecutor is still ongoing.

Israel should also strive to find a way out from the current stagnation in the negotiations with the Palestinians. This stagnation has undoubtedly played a role in the motivation of the Office of the Prosecutor to push the investigation forward. It is not unreasonable to contend that ongoing negotiations can serve as a justification to stall the investigation because it will not serve the interests of justice, a legitimate consideration that can be taken into account by the Prosecutor.

Israel can also use the assistance of its new Arab friends in the region in pushing the negotiations with Palestinians forward.

Legally, Israel has to keep cultivating its own examination and investigation mechanisms and make sure they continue to enjoy their independence.

Israel should also devise plans to tackle the most challenging legal issues that might arise during the investigation, including the legal status of the settlements and the legal status of the crime that refers to them in the Statute; the legal status of the Gaza Strip after Israel withdrew from it; the legal definition of Israel's conflict with Hamas as international or non-international, and other key issues.

Lastly, Israel should also consider what kind of cooperation, if any, it wants to have with the ICC. While Israel’s reluctance to openly cooperate with the Court under such circumstances is clear, there are many more nuanced and discrete ways to engage with the Court – and some of them may carry valuable advantages.

In any case, this is no time to panic or rage. It is time to roll up sleeves and prepare for a long uphill battle. Israel is morally right. And as such it will eventually win this battle, like many before it.


Eli Bar-On concluded his career in the Israel Defense Forces holding the position of instructor at the IDF National Defense College (the INDC). Prior to that position, Bar-on served as the Deputy Military Advocate General of the IDF (2012 to 2015), where he was in command of approximately 1,000 lawyers and legal experts, including prior to, during and following Operation Pillar of Defense & Operation Protective Edge. He also served as the Chief Legal Advisor for the IDF in the West Bank from 2009 to 2012.

Israel Should Engage With the ICC Investigators

BY David Benger

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Last Friday, a three-judge panel at the International Criminal Court handed down a decision authorizing the ICC Chief Prosecutor to pursue an investigation of international crimes committed in the territory of the so-called “State of Palestine.”

The reaction from Israeli officials has been scathing. Chief among them, Prime Minister Netanyahu described the decision as “pure antisemitism,” and Minister of Strategic Affairs Michael Biton called it “a dangerous precedent.”

These reactions, though understandable, are not a reasonable response to the actual threat the ICC is likely to pose. As I wrote six years ago, Palestinian terrorists are more likely than IDF officers to be arrested and charged by ICC prosecutors.

Indeed, when the facts on the ground in the West Bank are applied to the laws that govern the ICC, it becomes apparent that should there be any charges brought by the ICC arising out of the situation in so-called “Palestine,” those charges will very likely be brought against Palestinian terrorists, not Israeli soldiers.

An ICC investigation, once launched, cannot be controlled or influenced by anyone other than the ICC professionals running the show. The fact that Palestinian officials and Palestinian-affiliated NGO’s were responsible for jumpstarting the investigation indicates nothing about how this process will go from here on out.

ICC investigators now have a mandate to investigate everything that occurred in the West Bank and Gaza since 2014.

Those who should be most frightened of the ICC now are Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, whose conduct offers up straightforward war crimes cases. Hamas, for example, stores weapons in civilian areas, routinely uses children as human shields, and indiscriminately targets Jewish civilians in Israel with acts of terror, from rocket attacks to arson.

For a more detailed analysis of Hamas’ violations of international law, read Colonel Eli Baron’s excellent analysis at the MirYam Institute, Part 1here and Part 2 here.

Meanwhile, the PA bankrolls the program colloquially known as “pay for slay,” providing financial compensation to the families of suicide bombers. These are all prosecutable crimes under the ICC charter, and should yield arrests of senior terror leadership.

Members of the Israeli military, conversely, are extremely unlikely to be prosecuted due to the IDF’s sophisticated court martial system. The International Criminal Court cannot prosecute anyone who has been investigated in good faith by a domestic criminal system (a concept known as the principle of complementarity), and so any Israelis who have been court martialed by the IDF will not face ICC prosecution.

So, why, then, have anti-Israel activists advocated so vociferously for an ICC investigation in the Palestinian territories?

There is one category of crimes which has captivated the imaginations of anti-Israel activists, chiefly because complementarity would play no role in the proceedings. The charter of the ICC criminalizes transferring, “by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies.”

Certain activists believe this law can be applied to Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank. They are wrong.

First, lawyers for the State of Israel will argue that under settled principles of international law, Israel is not an occupying power. Under general principles of state formation (explained here by Avi Bell and Eugene Konotorovich), the West Bank has been a part of the State of Israel since 1948, notwithstanding Jordan’s short-lived military occupation there. Therefore, Israel is not an “occupying power” and cannot be charged with such a crime.

Second, the Israeli government’s financial subsidies for small villages in Judea and Samaria are far outside the intended scope of this prohibition. The drafters of this section of the ICC statute had in mind widespread and systematic war crimes and genocides during which large groups were moved about for the purpose of extinguishing minority sub-groups.

Indeed, an ICC investigation may be good for Israel in the long run. A thorough investigation carried out by a team of international professionals may finally alert the international community to Palestinians’ systemic and criminal violations of international law.


David Benger is a research fellow at Harvard University. He is a recent graduate of Harvard Law School, where he served as the chapter president of Louis D. Brandeis Center for Human Rights Under the Law, and the Events Chair of the HLS Alliance for Israel, as well as an editor on the Journal of Law and Public Policy and the HLS National Security Journal.

The profound consequences of the ICC’s Palestine ruling

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By Geoffrey Corn

PROFESSOR OF LAW, SOUTH TEXAS COLLEGE OF LAW. US ARMY (RET.)

The International Criminal Court (ICC) Pre-Trial Chamber (PTC) issued a decision with profound potential consequences for Israel and other States, especially those that like Israel have chosen not to join the Court. The decision authorizes the Prosecutor to investigate and potentially prosecute alleged violations of the ICC Statute that occurred in what the Court characterized as Palestinian territory. This was based on a conclusion that Palestine is a ‘State Party’ to the treaty, and that Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem fall within the scope of the Court’s territorial jurisdiction as Palestinian territory. Specifically, the PTC reached the following findings:

  • That Palestine is a State Party to the Statute; FINDS, by majority, Judge Kovács dissenting, 

  • That, as a consequence, Palestine qualifies as ‘[t]he State on the territory of which the conduct in question occurred’ for the purposes of article 12(2)(a) of the Statute; and 

  • That the Court’s territorial jurisdiction in the Situation in Palestine extends to the territories occupied by Israel since 1967, namely Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem (with one dissenting vote).

To call this decision controversial is a gross understatement. The fact that the PTC considered 43 Amicus submissions from States, scholars, and diplomats (to include one I joined and contributed to arguing against the assertion of jurisdiction) indicates there is simply no way to characterize the decision in any other terms. 

As an immediate and practical matter, the decision means that the ICC Prosecutor may seek to prosecute Israeli military and government personnel for what she determines are violations of the Statute occurring in any of the areas determined to fall within the scope of the Court’s territorial jurisdiction. Why is this controversial? First, the exercise of jurisdiction is not based on anything related to a widely accepted conclusion that Palestine is in fact a state within the meaning of international law, or that the areas treated as within its boundaries are part of the Palestinian State. Indeed, the PTC acknowledged that its decision was not an announcement that Palestine qualified as a State for any purpose beyond establishing the jurisdiction of the Court. Second, the decision allows for an assertion of jurisdiction over individuals whose State has made a reasoned and reasonable decision not to subject its nationals to the Court’s jurisdiction. 

Both of these considerations have obvious immediate consequence for Israel. Is it likely Israel would voluntarily turn over one of its nationals to the ICC based on an indictment? No. But pursuant to the treaty, all States that are Parties to the Court bear an obligation to assist the Prosecutor and the Court in enforcing its orders, to include assistance in apprehending and turning over any individual under indictment. Accordingly, any Israeli national who travels to one such State would always face the risk of apprehension by that State on behalf of the Court. Considering indictments could stem from everything from alleged war crimes during the Gaza conflict to the creation of Israeli settlements or the assertion of Israeli sovereignty over East Jerusalem the potential risk to Israeli military and civilian officials is certainly not hypothetical. 

Like Israel, the U.S. has chosen not to join the ICC. Ironically one of the principal asserted reasons was a concern that the Court may be improperly influenced by international political considerations, and as a result may abuse its authority. For many observers, this decision validates those concerns. It also highlights the very real risk that U.S. personnel may also be subjected to ‘non-consensual’ ICC jurisdiction based on the conduct of operations on the territory of a current or future State Party based on the Court’s decision to accept accession of that Party. To be fair, this has always been a risk for U.S. forces engaged in expeditionary operations in such territory. Indeed, this risk was manifested by another ICC decision authorizing the Prosecutor to investigate alleged U.S. war crimes in the territory of Afghanistan. But imposing that risk based on what many experts believe is a dubious determination of State Party status seems especially troubling.

The second aspect of the decision – the PTCs decision that Palestine qualifies as a State within the meaning of the Rome Statute, without widespread international agreement on that status –  may arguably have a more limited consequence. Indeed, the Court relied heavily on the fact that the Secretary General of the United Nations, acting in response to General Assembly resolutions, determined that the Palestinian Authority may accede/join international treaties. Perhaps more importantly, the PTC emphasized the lack of objection by existing State Parties to the treaty to the acceptance of the Palestinian accession to the treaty. Accordingly, it would seem that the opportunity for other emerging or aspiring States to place themselves under the Court’s jurisdiction would require an analogous confluence of United Nations acceptance and State Party acquiescence. This does not seem like it would be a routine occurrence.  

Indeed, the situation related to Palestine is in many ways sui generis. But it is the unusual, complicated, and unique aspects of the statehood issue that make the PTC's judgment on State Party status and territorial boundaries feel so troubling. Yes, it is true the PTC did not reach this State Party conclusion in a vacuum; relying heavily on the considerations noted above. So perhaps the conditions were already set for this outcome. But the PTC was not bound by those U.N. actions or Party State acquiescence; it was obligated to make its own assessment of the meaning of State Party within the treaty. What seems hard to dispute is that the totality of these events – the 2015 accession, the absence of State Party objection, and the PTC decision – reflects a reality that the limited jurisdiction of the ICC has expanded to now include authority over an area that has not yet reached a widely accepted international status as a State. Endorsing an interpretation of the treaty that vests the jurisdictional consequences of statehood on an entity while disavowing any impact on whether the entity is in fact a State and in so doing expose nationals of an established State to criminal liability that State chose not to accept is as controversial as the underlying situation itself. 

How far this may extend in the future to other areas of contested sovereignty is unclear. What is clear is that this approach arguably dilutes the responsibility of State Parties themselves to decide what newly evolving entities qualify as equal members of the international community and therefore may join the Court. Perhaps the PTCs citation to the lack of State Party objection to the accession was intended to send a message that the Court must accord probative value to not only State Party action but also inaction on such complicated questions. This is not an illogical method of interpreting the intent of these State Parties, and if it might generate a more direct and explicit response to the accession and the PTC decision. If so, that would be a good thing, because it will better reflect the authority of the Parties to influence the Court’s membership. 

However, even considering this inference of State Party endorsement of the Palestinian accession, it is also arguable that the decision contradicts the mechanism established by the Rome Statute for addressing situations of impunity for individuals that do not fall within the ICCs nationality or territorial jurisdiction: reliance on the U.N. Security Council to refer such a matter to the Court. While some may respond that this alternate path to jurisdiction is functionally irrelevant where Israel or the United States is concerned because of the U.S. veto power, this is the mechanism the treaty created, and just because it may rarely be invoked should not allow the Court to engage in an interpretive bypass. If anything, the Security Council referral provision reflected a State Party recognition that assertion of jurisdiction absent a nationality or territorial link to the defendant should be a difficult hurdle to leap.

The reaction to this decision, like the reflections of the many Amici and views related to the situation itself, undoubtedly range from ecstasy to despair. In truth, the real test lies ahead, and that is whether the ICC Prosecutor and the Court engage in a credible assessment of the core treaty principle of complementarity and an equally credible assessment of what does or does not qualify as a crime in violation of the treaty. On the former, countries like Israel and the United States in theory should have little concern of this expansion of ICC jurisdiction because the Court must find that the State failed to credibly exercise its primary obligation to investigate and where appropriate prosecute international law violations. That Israel and the U.S. fulfill this obligation is manifested in countless sources of evidence, to include the criminal prosecution of members of their armed forces for misconduct during hostilities that amount to war crimes. Indeed, the independence of the Israeli Military Advocate General from subordination to senior IDF commanders is considered by some to render IDF prosecutorial judgments more credible than those made by senior U.S. military commanders. The Israeli system for examining and investigating complaints and claims of violations of international humanitarian law was the subject of an exhaustive and comparative review in the second 2013 Turkel Commission report.  To the extent the “dual hat” nature of the Israeli Military Advocate General role is an issue, this common law based “attorney general”  like role meets the requirements for complementarity.  For example, Canada recently reviewed the “dual-hatted” role performed by its federal Attorney General finding it was not an impediment to an independent prosecution.  Similarly, recent decisions in both Canada (R. v. Stillman) and Australia (R. v. Cowen) have reinforced the lawfulness of military justice jurisdiction over criminal offences.” The spotlight is now on the ICC Prosecutor to demonstrate her willingness and ability to adopt an analogous recognition that this common law-based system of criminal accountability for military personnel provide for legitimate disposition of allegations and in so doing implement this complementarity principle in the true spirit of the treaty. Her pursuit of this investigation justifies legitimate skepticism.

Then there is the ultimate question of assessing whether violations of the treaty – meaning violations of international law triggering individual criminal responsibility – are indeed established by credible and admissible evidence. The complexity of this issue is profound, with equally profound second and third-order consequences. Decisions by the ICC as to what qualifies as a war crime; what qualifies as occupied territory; what qualifies as a violation of occupation obligations; what qualifies as a crime against humanity; and what qualifies as genocide have tremendous influence on how those offenses are understood by the international community. Furthermore, any accusation focused on the ‘settlements’ issue would require the Court to adjudicate the legality of one of the most complex issues of international law related to the situation the PTC authorized the Prosecutor to investigate; an issue with profound political and diplomatic consequences for multiple States involved in the efforts to reach a negotiated agreement on Palestinian statehood. 

The Court may soon find itself having to adopt an approach to adjudicating such an allegation that is analogous to the PTC approach to resolve the highly complex international legal and State status question: by simply disavowing an impact beyond criminal responsibility. But like this decision, it is impossible to ignore the reverberating impact of such trial, much less a conviction. Such international criminal adjudications also have a snowball effect, as once the Court determines a crime has occurred the ‘test’ it establishes will undoubtedly influence the assertion of jurisdiction in future cases. Ideally, if any case reaches this point the Court will render credible judgments based on established law and sufficient evidence and not be influenced by a desire to expand its reach or contribute to political agendas. Again, however, this most recent decision justifies skepticism.

Impunity for serious violations of international law, especially those falling within the scope of ICC crimes, is abhorrent and should not be tolerated by the international community. But the burden on preventing such impunity remains a function of the community of nations. The ICC is a mechanism established to contribute to that preventive goal, but is not a substitute for State responsibility and, for good or bad, was established with important limitations. Let’s hope that this decision is the beginning of a process that will reflect a credible role for the Court in this equation, and not the foretelling of an abuse of the limited role it has been entrusted with. 


Geoffrey S. Corn is the Gary A Kuiper distinguished professor of National Security Law, at South Texas College of Law, Houston, and a retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel. Read full bio here.

INTERVIEW: Israel likely to spurn Turkish overtures, says former envoy

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ILAN EVYATAR INTERVIEWS ISRAEL'S FORMER AMBASSADOR TO TURKEY, DR. ALON LIEL (1981-1983)

After years of virulent anti-Israeli rhetoric, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been attempting for the past few months to patch up ties with Israel, as regional developments leave his regime isolated and alarm bells sound in Ankara with the Biden administration already taking a tough line on Turkey.

To discuss what’s behind Turkey’s attempted rapprochement with Israel and whether Jerusalem will respond to the overtures from Ankara, I spoke with Dr. Alon Liel, a former Israeli ambassador to the country.

“This has been going on for the past three or four months with the upgrading of Turkey’s representation to Israel, attempts to create talks over [economic] rights in territorial waters, and a very rare direct quote from Erdogan,” says Liel, referring to the Turkish president’s statement in late December that he would like to bring ties with Israel “to a better point.” 

That statement was tempered with a remark that Israel’s “merciless acts” against the Palestinians are “unacceptable”, but on the ground, Erdogan appointed the Hebrew-speaking policy wunderkind Ufuk Ulutas, as his designated ambassador to Tel Aviv, almost two years after the previous envoy was withdrawn.  

Jerusalem however has not reciprocated by upgrading its own representation to ambassadorial level. 

“Israel isn’t overly enthusiastic to say the least,'' notes Liel.

The former foreign ministry director general says Ankara and Jerusalem find themselves looking at each other in a mirror image. Turkey is isolated in the region, with tensions in its relations  with Egypt, Greece and Cyprus, not to mention issues with Europe. Israel on the other hand has compensated very well for the breakdown of relations with Turkey by creating a tripartite alliance with Ankara’s historic rivals Greece and Cyprus, and has improved relations with Egypt - all centered on the crucial issue of energy cooperation, and with strong military cooperation between Israel and Greece and Cyprus. 

While Turkey has weakened, Israel has become much stronger in the region: Its economy grown thanks to its booming hi-tech sector, while Turkey’s economy is plagued by high inflation, a big trade imbalance and a weak currency, and on the military front, Israel strikes with impunity in Syria, and does as it wishes in the region. 

“Turkey is interested but Israel doesn’t see the need,” says Liel. 

Not to mention, he adds, that there is also a lot of anger on the Israeli side with Erdogan, both for his tone over the past decade toward Jerusalem and his cozy relations with Hamas. 

Meanwhile, Israel recently signed the Abraham Accords, acquiring new regional partners - most prominently the United Arab Emirates - and  further isolating Turkey. Ankara has its own tensions with the UAE playing out across the MENA region and Israel will also have to take Abu Dhabi’s feelings into account.

“If Jerusalem were to upgrade relations with Turkey now, that would not be appreciated,” says Liel. 

While the recent reconciliation between the Gulf Cooperation Council and Qatar does give Ankara a “crack to get back in,” says Liel, if it was successful in repairing its ties with the Saudi led bloc, Turkey would “stop its flirtation with Israel.”

Meanwhile another major issue pushing Erdogan’s attempts at rapprochement is his concerns about what policy the Biden administration will adopt toward Turkey given its sensitivity to human rights issues, Turkey’s purchase of S-400 missiles from Russia that led President Donald Trump to kick its NATO ally out of the F-35 stealth fighter-jet  program, and concerns over Turkey’s aggressive posture in the Mediterranean. The thinking in Ankara is that improved ties with Israel can open doors in Washington - doors that Israel is in no hurry to open.

Turkey has also shot itself in the foot on the energy front. After investing tens of billions of dollars in becoming an energy hub leading gas from production sites in the Caspian region to consumption sites in Europe, Turkey had hoped to become a similar conduit for the huge natural gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean, among them Israel’s Leviathan field. 

One of the things that really hit Turkey, says Liel, is the Cairo-based EastMed Gas Forum, which   includes the Palestinians, along with Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt, but has left Ankara out in the cold. 

He adds that while the most economically feasible way of moving Israeli gas to Europe would be to hook up to the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline which began moving Azerbaijani gas to Europe in 2018, that is currently unthinkable for Jerusalem, which won’t allow Turkey to become a player in the EastMed gas market under current circumstances. 

But while Liel sees “little interest” from Jerusalem  in restoring relations , he notes that people to people ties and trade remain strong - in fact Turkey was Israel’s seventh largest export market in 2020 - despite the long period of tension between the countries.  

“Tensions are mostly at the level of top political echelons but not among the public,” says Liel, who by way of an anecdote of the cultural closeness between the two countries notes the huge popularity of Turkish telenovelas in Israel.

In the long run he adds, a rapprochement between Israel and Turkey will probably require a change of leadership. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees himself as having been stung by Erdogan, so the big question from his perspective is who will be running Israel’s foreign policy following the next elections. If it is someone who hasn’t been directly hit by Erdogan, then there could be a greater chance of an improvement in relations. 

Erdogan’s analysis is strikingly similar. 

"The main problem right now is about individuals at the top," the Turkish president said in his December statement. 


Ilan Evyatar is an Israeli journalist. He has served as Editor-in-Chief of the award-winning Jerusalem Report magazine; and News Editor of The Jerusalem Post, where he also wrote a weekly column on politics, economics and international affairs. He is currently working on his first book. Read full bio here.

Alon Liel has served as a chargé d’affaires in Turkey and as Israel’s ambassador to South Africa. Following his role in 1999 as foreign affairs adviser to then-chairman of the Labor party Ehud Barak, Liel became director-general of the Foreign Ministry in 2000.

Israel’s Shift to CENTCOM: Big Things Come in Little Packages

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By Iris SOBCHAK & FRANK Sobchak

In the waning hours of his presidency, President Trump ordered the U.S. military to change its Unified Command Plan by moving Israel from European Command (EUCOM) to Central Command (CENTCOM).  

Seemingly a small and semantic change, in reality the shift is nothing short of tectonic and momentous. While the decision did not receive much coverage because of the attack on the Capitol and surrounding events, it is an important issue with many considerable ramifications. Specifically, it will have immediate practical implications and will create new opportunities for engagement that could trigger another wave of diplomatic developments and normalizations.

European Command was established in 1952 to provide unified command and authority over US forces in Europe focused on the danger of a Soviet invasion during the Cold War. By contrast, Central Command was established by Ronald Reagan in 1983, taking over from the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force to address Middle East crises. Israel, Lebanon, and Syria were chosen to remain in EUCOM, at least in part because Egypt was the only country in CENTCOM that recognized Israel. Also informing the decision was the thought that the animosity towards Israel from many Arab nations would complicate coalition negotiations and operational planning.  

At the time, simply having an Israeli entry stamp in one’s passport prohibited American military planners from entering most Arab states, and the ridiculous posturing of officials maintaining two passports became a necessity. General Norman Schwarzkopf believed that not having Israel in CENTCOM made his job as coalition commander during the 1991 Gulf War easier and noted, “I’d have difficulty impressing the Arabs with Central Command’s grasp of geo-political nuance if one of the stops on my itinerary had been Tel Aviv.”  

But the decision had negative consequences on U.S. interagency planning. In the Department of Defense, Israel was under EUCOM while in the State Department it was organized under the Near Eastern Bureau with its Arab neighbors. This caused difficulties in the areas of defense and diplomacy, including when negotiating treaties or coordinating operations. But the geo-strategic tides shifted and in 1994 Jordan joined Egypt in recognizing Israel

Fast forward to more recent months and we note that as part of the recent Abraham Accords, Bahrain, UAE, Morocco, and Sudan have also normalized relations. 

Moving Israel to CENTCOM is a significant step towards correctly aligning the State and Defense Department regional bureaus and commands. The logical realignment of Israel in CENTCOM is good for governance and will allow the U.S. to manage the national bureaucracy and communications between these governmental organizations and with our allies in the region.  

Additionally, the two most pressing regional (and potentially geo-strategic) dangers of our time, a rearming and resurgent Iran and the threat of militant Islamic fundamentalists groups such as Al Qa’ida and ISIS, are issues that require the involvement, coordination, and assistance of countries throughout the region.   

The U.S. has long sought to build a regional defense arrangement to counter Iranian expansion and prevent Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons. By including Israel in the appropriate plans and operations, CENTCOM will have greater success in achieving these goals, whether they be through missile defense, non-proliferation, countering terrorist financing, or simply killing or capturing senior terrorist leadership. Israel and her neighbors will also benefit greatly as the change aligns with their own security objectives. 

Switching Israel to CENTCOM also creates new opportunities. Such a realignment will compel other Arab states that have not yet recognized Israel to engage more with her more readily. The alignments also has the potential to lead to warmed relations or even a new wave of recognitions or normalizations. 

At the CENTCOM headquarters in Tampa, there exists an “engagement village” where all countries included in the region send liaisons to coordinate and make connections. Having Israel as  part of this engagement village will open an additional back door of communications that will enable further cooperation on a multitude of issues. Even countries that do not yet formally have established relations with Israel would have to collaborate with Israel in such an environment and it is not inconceivable that such efforts could lead to the quiet prospering of informal relations with Iran’s principal Gulf rival, Saudi Arabia.

Another possible outcome could be that Israel’s shift results in a larger American military unified command plan reassessment. Such a review could spur the movement of the countries in northern Africa that are more culturally and geographically similar to those in the Middle East to be realigned with CENTCOM as well. Making this move would line up CENTCOM with the way that the State Department has structured their Near East Affairs Bureau. It makes logical sense to have Morocco, Libya, Algeria and Tunisia in the same regional headquarters, as they are facing similar issues as the Arabian Peninsula and Egypt.  

The decision to shift Israel to CENTCOM is one that will have significant, immediate, practical benefits for the United States, Israel, and the Arab nations of the region. The only possible downside to this decision is that should Israel come into conflict with any of the other countries within CENTCOM, decision making and operational planning would become more complicated. More likely however, is that such a realignment would help deter this kind of conflict and create a greater peace between Israel and the other countries of the region.  

Engagement leads to personal connections and the dispelling of biases and prejudices.  As the American author Mark Twain wrote, “Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime.” Let us all hope that this move helps inspire such views.


Frank Sobchak is a PhD candidate in international relations at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and has taught at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, Tufts University, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, and The Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He holds a BS in Military History from West Point and a MA in Arab Studies from Georgetown University. Read full bio here.

Iris Sobchak (Lieutenant Colonel, Retired Army) has had a diverse 29 year career in the military, academia, financial services and in women’s leadership consulting. She taught History at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and she holds a BS in international/Strategic History from West Point and a MA in Latin American History at Penn State.